College Football Best Bets: Week 12
It will be hard to top last week’s college football action, as Minnesota and LSU won huge conference road games in thrilling fashion. The second College Football Playoff rankings have been released and will continue to have an impact on the psyche of certain teams. Of the four ranked vs. ranked matchups, three of them have major CFP implications. Oklahoma-Baylor may be a preview of the Big 12 championship game. Minnesota looks to keep their undefeated season going, and they’ll look to cement their status as Big Ten West division champions with a win at Iowa. Lastly, Georgia is still alive for an SEC Championship and CFP berth, and a win at Auburn would surely strengthen their resume.
We will take a look at some of these matchups as well as other major conference clashes in this week’s column.
Here are my five best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
Best Bets for Week 12: College Football
(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 1-4
YTD: 24-29-2
Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5)
All of the numbers and trends in this rivalry seem to favor Michigan State. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Michigan. Michigan State is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh is just 2-2 in his career against the Spartans. However, as tightly contested as this rivalry has been, the fact is that these are two teams headed in opposite directions.
The Spartans are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. While one can forgive losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State, losing to Illinois in a game where they led by 25 points is inexcusable. Outside of scoring 34 points against the Fighting Illini, the Spartans offense totaled just 17 points in their prior three games combined. They head to Ann Arbor to take on a resurgent Michigan team who has won five of their last six games. This looks like a completely different team than the one who got manhandled by Wisconsin in September. Quarterback Shea Patterson has done a much better job taking care of the ball, throwing just one interception in the last four games.
This is a great opportunity for Coach Harbaugh to exact some revenge on the “little brother†who has tormented the Wolverines for years. You know he will do everything in his power to run up the score and silence the doubters who say he cannot win the big rivalry games. He has the horses to do it, and he’ll benefit from a weaker than usual Spartans team. Michigan should enjoy every bit of a big home win.
Georgia at Auburn (O/U 44)
Georgia’s defense has been on fire lately. They have two shutouts in their last three games, and they have not allowed more than 20 points all year. Their 10.1 PPG allowed ranks second in the country. Meanwhile, Auburn allows 17.4 PPG, which ranks 13th in the country. For whatever reason, Georgia’s offense tends to be very conservative in big games. Against Notre Dame, they attempted 26 passes and ran 33 times. Against Florida, they threw 30 passes and ran 37 times. Georgia’s running game is going to find tough sledding against a mammoth NFL-caliber defensive line of Auburn. The Tigers rank third in the SEC allowing just 112.7 rushing YPG. Look for a defensive struggle in this one.
Minnesota at Iowa (-3)
Something doesn’t smell right about this line. Minnesota is coming off one of the biggest wins in school history against Penn State, which vaulted them to eighth in the latest CFP rankings. Meanwhile, Iowa has lost all three games they have played against ranked opponents this year. However, just one of those losses came at home, losing to Penn State 17-12. Perhaps this is the oddsmakers’ way of telling us they still don’t quite believe in Minnesota just yet. Look for Iowa to catch the Golden Gophers flat in a prime letdown spot this week.
LSU at Mississippi (+21)
Another likely letdown spot is LSU traveling to Oxford to take on a 4-6 Ole Miss team. LSU is riding high, ranked No. 1 in the country after an impressive 46-41 thriller at Alabama. Head coach Ed Orgeron poured out his emotions both in the postgame press conference and the locker room with his players, after finally getting the monkey off his back about not beating the Crimson Tide. LSU likely can still make the playoffs if they win out and lose in the SEC championship game, as their resume shows four wins over top-ten teams.
Ole Miss has been experimenting with a two-quarterback system of late, rotating John Rhys Plumlee and Matt Corral. However, Coach O named Plumlee the starter for this week’s game, and he should take most of the first-team reps in practice to get him ready. LSU will be forgiven if they come out flat in this contest, and 21 points will prove too much to cover given how much attention went into last week’s game.
Oklahoma at Baylor (O/U 67.5)
Oklahoma has the most dynamic offense in the country, averaging a nation-best 587.3 YPG. Baylor’s offense has performed well also, averaging 459.6 YPG and 35.3 PPG. The difference is that Baylor seems like the only team in the Big 12 that plays any defense. They are allowing a conference-best 19.0 PPG and rank second in the conference allowing just 337.4 YPG. Head coach Matt Rhule has always been a defensive-minded coach dating back to his time at Temple. Look for Baylor to rely on the two-headed running back attack of John Lovett and JaMycal Hasty to control the time of possession and limit Oklahoma’s possessions. The only time Baylor allowed more than 30 points was a 33-30 double-overtime win over Texas Tech. The Sooners’ offense will find tougher sledding than usual in this one.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.