College Football Best Bets: Week 14
This week is hands down the best week of the regular season in College Football. We come off of Thanksgiving and have plenty of games waiting for us on Friday as well as Saturday. But this is not just any old week — it is Rivalry Week. The Iron Bowl, the Apple Cup, the Axe Game, Bedlam, and of course, The Game. Let’s dive in and take a look at the best of these rivalries in this week’s Best Bets column.
Here are my five best bets for Week 14 of the college football season.
Best Bets for Week 14: College Football
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 30-32-3
Ohio State at Michigan (+9)
Before last week’s 28-17 win against Penn State, Ohio State had won all of their games by at least 24 points. That said, this year’s version of The Game will come down to the final minute. The Buckeyes showed a little chink in their armor last week when they almost blew a 17-point lead to Penn State. Much of the Nittany Lions’ comeback happened with their backup quarterback as Sean Clifford left the game with an injury. Ohio State was held to 3.8 YPC, and the Nittany Lions defense made Justin Fields look human, as he threw for just 188 yards.
Michigan has been one of the hottest teams in the country ever since their dominant win over Notre Dame. Over their last four games, they have beaten teams by an average of 41.5-11.3. Quarterback Shea Patterson is taking better care of the ball, and the Wolverines defense is looking more and more like a typical Dom Brown coached defense. I love the fact that Michigan did not look past Indiana last week. They went to Bloomington and took care of business 39-14. That is a sign of a team that is focused and committed to getting better each week, and not one that needs to get the monkey off their back and beat the Buckeyes for once. Ann Arbor will be rocking, and Ohio State will be in for by far their toughest test of the season. Take Michigan plus the points.
Alabama (-3.5) at Auburn
Fans who cannot stand another year of Alabama being in the College Football Playoff might want to look away from this one. Alabama was given a huge gift when Oregon lost at Arizona State last week. Now Utah beating Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game would be a less impressive win, and Alabama’s resume likely would stack up well against a one-loss Utah team. Alabama still could use some help, like LSU beating Georgia in the SEC Championship. However, Nick Saban knows he needs style points in this one, in case there is a debate if Alabama is worthy of being the No. 4 team in college football.
This spread would likely be north of a touchdown if Tua Tagovailoa were healthy. Instead, Mac Jones will be under center for the second straight game. Though Jones is unproven, it would be wise for Alabama to attack the Auburn defense through the air. Auburn’s defensive line is full of NFL talent, and running with Najee Harris will be tough sledding. Meanwhile, Auburn’s pass defense ranks just seventh in the SEC. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, and Devonta Smith should be able to have big days against the secondary, even if it is just from yards after the catch.
Nick Saban will not let Auburn’s fast-paced rushing attack beat him. He will force true freshman Bo Nix to have to move the ball through the air, and I do not think he is up to the task just yet. In the three games that Auburn has faced a top ten team (Florida, LSU, Georgia), Bo Nix’s averages are 50% completion percentage, 182.3 yards, one touchdown, and 1.33 interceptions. That won’t get it done against an Alabama team that is sure to score points.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota
The stakes are at an all-time high in the Axe Game, as the winner gets a berth in the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State. Wisconsin is out for revenge after getting humiliated by Minnesota at home last year, 37-15. Minnesota is sure to have a raucous crowd, much like the Penn State game. However, there are two things in football that travel well: a running game and a defense. Wisconsin will look to run Jonathan Taylor behind their mammoth offensive line and keep Minnesota’s offense off of the field. The Golden Gophers are seventh in the Big Ten in rush defense, allowing 123.8 YPG. Don’t be surprised if the Badgers double that en route to a division-clinching win.
Notre Dame at Stanford (O/U 51)
This is the first game in this column that doesn’t have a fancy nickname, but it is a budding rivalry nonetheless. Every year, Notre Dame plays its last game of the season in California, whether it be against USC or Stanford. Notre Dame heads to Palo Alto in search of their first win at The Farm since 2007. During their five-game road losing streak to Stanford, the Cardinal have been able to use a punishing rushing attack and stout defense to stymy the Irish.
At 4-7, the Cardinal will not be headed to a bowl game. However, they will treat this as their bowl and will look to send their seniors out on a positive note. Stanford coach David Shaw has always been a thorn in Brian Kelly’s side. Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello is once again ruled out with a thumb injury. His replacement, sophomore Davis Mills, has not looked impressive in his last two starts.
Stanford has held two of their last three opponents to 24 points or less. They may not win, but they will be able to slow down Notre Dame’s offense enough to make this an ugly defensive struggle. Take the under in this one.
Florida State at Florida (-17.5)
Given the mediocrity of Florida State’s football program of late, it is surprising to hear that the Seminoles currently own a four-game winning streak at the Swamp. Something has to give, as Florida is a perfect 5-0 at home this year. The Gators’ defense has been on fire lately, allowing a combined six points in two wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri. The only offense that truly exposed this defense all year was LSU, and that is understandable given the prolific year Joe Burrow is having.
Since firing Willie Taggart, FSU is 2-0 and has averaged 43.5 PPG. However, that came against Boston College and Alabama State. No matter who starts at quarterback for Florida State (Alex Hornibrook or James Blackman), the Seminoles will have trouble moving the ball against the 12th-ranked Gators defense. With revenge on their minds, this game could get ugly fast.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.