College Football Best Bets: Week 16 (2020)
There is no denying that 2020 has been a strange year in many ways. The structure of the Week 16 slate in college football is another thing to add to the list of crazy and unusual occurrences. While the last week of the college football season is usually reserved for conference championship games, those games will be intertwined with a number of conference games that have been put off until this week because of earlier COVID-19 postponements. As a result, bettors must decide whether to mix in any of these plays with the more highly bet conference championships.
For my money, I will stick with picking the conference championships, as at least we know both teams will be motivated. With the non-conference championship games that do not have College Football Playoff or other bowl implications, it will be tricky to decipher which teams will pour it all on the line and be emotionally invested.
Here are my top three plays for Week 16 in college football.
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Best Bets for Week 16: College Football
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 1-3
YTD: 32-22
Oklahoma (-5.5) vs. Iowa State
The Big 12 Championship game is a fascinating matchup. It will feature a program that’s used to being there versus a school making its first appearance. The Oklahoma Sooners aim for their sixth straight conference championship and 14th Big 12 title in school history. Meanwhile, the Iowa State Cyclones will need to battle the emotions of playing in a game that could go down as the biggest in school history.
For my money, give me the experienced team that has been there before. Though Iowa State has the better chance to make the College Football Playoff (though they will need chaos to do so), Oklahoma will be plenty motivated to avenge their earlier 37-30 loss to the Cyclones. Oklahoma did not have running back Rhamondre Stevenson available in the first game, and his presence in this one should make a huge difference. Stevenson has averaged 5.9 YPC and has a team-leading six rushing touchdowns in limited action.
Also, Oklahoma’s run defense has improved tremendously. They have allowed just 81.4 YPG on the ground over their last five games, a mark that ranks third in the country in that span. Thus, their ability to shut down Iowa State running back Breece Hall, who torched them for 139 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting, will be a huge difference this time around.
PICK: Oklahoma -5.5
Notre Dame vs. Clemson: Notre Dame Team Total Over/Under 23.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be plenty motivated in this game, as this may be the only time that the school will ever compete for a conference championship in football. By all accounts, their College Football Playoff status does not appear to be at risk with a loss. However, their biggest motivating factor could be to avoid dropping to the No. 4 seed and having to play Alabama in the semifinals if they were to lose to Clemson.
Notre Dame scored 47 points on Clemson in a double-overtime win in their first meeting. However, the Tigers were without three key defensive starters in that game, which largely went unnoticed given the absence of Trevor Lawrence. Along with a much healthier defense, head coach Dabo Swinney and defensive coordinator Brent Venables are two of the best in the business at making adjustments. Notre Dame will be hard-pressed to run for 208 yards and 5.2 YPC again, as Clemson should stack the box and make the Fighting Irish beat them with the arm of Ian Book. The Tigers have allowed 27 combined points over their last two games, and they will turn in another spirited defensive effort with their CFP hopes on the line.
PICK: Notre Dame Team Total UNDER 23.5
Alabama vs. Florida: First Half Total Over/Under 37.5
The following Twitter poll is a great indication of how many people are projecting the SEC Championship game to play out.
The general consensus is that Florida won’t slow down the Alabama offense. However, the Gators have some firepower of their own and put up points in bunches. That is especially true when Kyle Pitts, the best tight end in the country, is healthy. He sat out their surprising loss to LSU, and his dynamic skill-set was sorely missed.
I’m focusing on the first half total out of concern for how Alabama will play the second half. Even if Notre Dame were to beat Clemson for a second time this weekend, Alabama’s hold on the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff wouldn’t be in jeopardy. Thus, one could easily envision a scenario where the Crimson Tide get up big at halftime and then instill a conservative game plan in the second half to keep everyone healthy. With both offenses going full throttle in the first half, even a total of 37.5 doesn’t seem high enough.
PICK: First Half Total OVER 37.5
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.