College Football Best Bets: Week 2 (2020)
Betting on the first games of the season in any sport can be a risky proposition. But to do so well, a bettor must consider offseason personnel changes to predict how strong a team will come out of the gates. This fact is especially true in college football. So often there are coaching changes, players leaving early for the NFL or graduating, new starters on both sides of the ball, etc. For the 2020 season, we have to factor in players who opted out of the season as part of the equation. In addition, we are limited in our options, as two of the Power 5 conferences (Big 10 and PAC-12) won’t be playing any games for the foreseeable future.
Based on the information available to us, the following are my four favorite plays from the first full slate of games of the college football season.
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Best Bets for Week 2: College Football
(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 0-0
YTD: 0-0
UAB +14.5 at Miami (9/10)
The Miami Hurricanes are 0-5 SU in their last five games as at least a touchdown favorite. In that same spot, they are in the midst of 0-9 and 2-14 ATS stretches. They are 0-3 SU in their last five as double-digit favorites and are 2-10 in their last 12 ATS under those circumstances. They are breaking in a new quarterback in D’Eriq King, who starred for Houston the last three years. He looks to revitalize an offense that has averaged 17.8 PPG in their last eight games as at least a touchdown favorite.
While King should elevate this offense to new heights, I would rather be on the side of the sharps. UAB has attracted 40% of the bets but 63% of the money thus far.
Lousiana-Lafayette +11.5 at Iowa State
No. 23 ranked Iowa State is used to being favored, as they have kicked off as favorites in 15 of their last 18 games. However, they have not handled being big favorites well, as they are 2-7 ATS as double-digit favorites over the past two seasons. Louisiana-Lafayette is widely regarded as the best team in the Sun Belt West division.
Before you laugh off the Sun Belt conference, they scored many upsets last season. Appalachian State, the favorite in the Sun Belt East, won at North Carolina and South Carolina. Coastal Carolina upset Kansas, and Georgia State shocked Tennessee in Knoxville. In addition, Georgia Southern had Minnesota on the ropes and UL-Monroe was edged by Florida State in overtime.
Look for head coach Billy Napier to scare the daylight out of the Cyclones and have this game tight late in the fourth quarter.
Duke +20.5 at Notre Dame
The Duke Blue Devils may be overlooked in this matchup, especially since they just named Clemson transfer Chase Brice as their starting quarterback. Some bettors will look at that and think that Brice did not separate himself from the rest of the competition until recently. I prefer to look at it as a bit of gamesmanship on the part of head coach David Cutcliffe that gives Notre Dame less time to scout him and prepare.
From 2013 to 2018, Duke was 27-10-1 ATS as underdogs, including 20 SU wins. They regressed a little in 2019 with a 2-4-1 ATS record as underdogs, but Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils have a larger sample size of showing up and playing well in big spots.
Also, Notre Dame had to close its campus as the coronavirus spread rapidly among the student body. That had to affect the football team’s preparation, and I do not think we will see them hit their full stride for a few weeks.
Coastal Carolina +6.5 at Kansas
Back to the Sun Belt we go with the Chanticleers of Coastal Carolina. They upset the Jayhawks as seven-point underdogs by a score of 12-7 on the road last year. In addition, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Kansas ranks 126th in returning production, while Coastal Carolina is up at No. 19 in his rankings. If that is the case, why would this year’s result be any different than last year?
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.