College Football Best Bets: Week 2 (2021)

The theme of this week’s College Football Best Bets article can be best summarized by one word: overreaction. Oddsmakers are reacting to the performances we saw on the field in Week 1, and in many cases, have made drastic changes to lines that were revealed earlier in the preseason. Futures markets have been adjusted in updated national championship odds and odds to win the Heisman Trophy (sorry, Sam Howell). The early narrative is that the ACC stinks after the conference’s three highest-profile teams (Clemson, North Carolina, Miami) all suffered disappointing losses.

It is important not to get overly wrapped up in what we witnessed in Week 1 because sportsbooks are always one step ahead of bettors. After the first week’s results, they know specific teams’ perceptions and baked those perceptions into their lines. We always prefer to be contrarian with our picks, and Week 2 is as great a time as any to be contrarian and fade the public’s overreactions.

Here are my top four plays for Week 2 in college football.

Best Bets for Week 2: College Football

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last Season: 35-22 (+9.5 units)
YTD: 4-2 (+1.64 units)

Oregon at Ohio State (-14.5)

The list of reasons bettors will fade the underdog Oregon Ducks in this matchup are countless. First, the Ducks escaped with a 31-24 win over Fresno State in their home opener after trailing 24-21 in the fourth quarter. Next, the best defensive end in the country and possible No. 1 draft pick in next year’s draft may not even suit up. Third, the historical history between these teams shows Ohio State has never lost (9-0) against Oregon. Finally, Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux is still considered “day-to-day,” and his status for this game is very much in question.

Meanwhile, Ohio State had a very business-like win on the road at Minnesota, and CJ Stroud looked every bit the part of the next great Ohio State quarterback. Stroud had not thrown a collegiate pass before last week and promptly threw for 294 yards and four touchdowns. In addition, wide receiver Chris Olave looked uncoverable (4/117/2), and the Buckeyes ran for 7.7 YPC. To top it off, the game is being played at noon ET, which will feel like 9:00 to the west coast Ducks.

ESPN’s College Football Playoff Predictor gives Ohio State a 67% chance to make the playoffs (second-best percentage in the country), while Oregon’s chances are slim at 4%. However, Oregon can take advantage of an Ohio State defense that allowed 31 points in the opener and is coming off their worst season in school history from a PPG allowed perspective. Oregon is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against Big Ten teams and is 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is sure to be the more popular side of the betting public, but we prefer to go against the grain, even if it takes a backdoor cover to stay within this large number.

PICK: Oregon +14.5 (-115)

Iowa at Iowa State (-4.5)

Another team that almost lost to an inferior opponent is the Iowa State Cyclones, who overlooked Northern Iowa in preparation for this game. Quarterback Brock Purdy was held to 9.47 yards per completion, and running back Breece Hall was held to just 3.0 yards per carry.

Conversely, the Iowa Hawkeyes looked dominant in their home opener, cruising past Indiana 34-6. Iowa’s defense held Indiana’s offense to 233 total yards and forced two turnovers. However, I think too much was expected of Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in his first game back from an ACL injury. He did not look like his usual self, throwing three interceptions and finishing with a QBR of 14.3.

After looking at Week 1’s results, how could one possibly back the Cyclones? One can back them confidently if they assume their lackluster Week 1 performance was because they knew College Gameday was coming to town this week. Some will point to the fact that ESPN’s show may cause a distraction to the players all week. I prefer to support the trends that Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss and that the home team has covered each of the previous four meetings between these teams. Iowa State is 0-5 in their last five games against Iowa, so this assuredly classifies as a contrarian play.

PICK: Iowa State -4.5 (-105)

Texas (-7) at Arkansas

Keeping with the theme of overreactions brings us to this under-the-radar Texas vs. Arkansas game that features a rivalry that dates back to 1894. It is each head coach’s first game in the rivalry, as Steve Sarkisian and Sam Pittman have been with their schools for a combined 12 games. The Sarkisian era started with a bang, as the Longhorns were never threatened by 23rd-ranked Louisiana last week. Sarkisian looked like he made the right call naming Hudson Card his starting quarterback, as he took care of the football and finished with a solid 90.9 QBR. Arguably the best running back in the country, Bijan Robinson, was not asked to do much, but he still finished with over 100 yards and one touchdown on the ground.

Arkansas beat and ultimately covered the -19.5 point spread against Rice last week, but the 38-17 final score does not tell the whole story. The Razorbacks were down 17-7 with 10:28 left in the third quarter, then reeled off 31 unanswered points.

Arkansas is 4-1 ATS in their last five September games and is 8-2 ATS in their previous ten games against the Big 12. Sarkisian and the Longhorns will be the more trendy pick, but the Razorbacks at home are the smarter pick.

PICK: Arkansas +7 (-105)

Washington at Michigan (-7)

Washington’s 13-7 loss to an FCS Montana team last week was inexcusable. They were held scoreless for the final 55 minutes of the game and gained just 291 total yards. However, the biggest shock was their lack of a ground game that could not get going, averaging just 2.4 yards on 27 carries.

Now Washington goes to the Big House for a primetime game that should have an electric atmosphere. However, this bet is a complete fade of a Wolverines team that might be Jim Harbaugh’s worst since he took over as head coach in 2015. First, Michigan’s cupboard was left bare after quarterback Joe Milton and running back Zach Charbonnet transferred to Tennessee and UCLA. Now their best wide receiver, Ronnie Bell, was lost for the year to a knee injury after he had a 76-yard touchdown catch and was electrifying on special teams in the opener. Michigan will struggle going forward, and the nation will get to witness it on national television on Saturday night.

Washington tends to rebound from straight-up losses from an ATS, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a loss. They are also 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games against teams with a winning record and should be able to hang with a Michigan team that is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against teams from the PAC-12.

PICK: Washington +7 (-115)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.