College Football Best Bets: Week 2

Bettors who followed my picks last week were sent on an emotional roller coaster. There was the thrill of victory, covering the O/U in the Houston-Oklahoma game by a half-point (game finished with a total of 80, line was 79.5). We also suffered the agony of defeat in quite possibly the worst “bad beat” of the week. Oregon (+3.5) was winning the entire game, and even on the last drive would’ve covered the spread if they held Auburn to a field goal. With nine seconds to go, Auburn took their only lead of the game with a 26-yard touchdown pass and covered the spread 27-21.

In all, we finished the week with a 3-2 record. As brutal as some defeats were, I will never complain about a profitable week. Here are my five best bets for Week 2 of the college football season.

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Best Bets for Week 2: NCAA Football  

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 3-2
YTD: 3-2

Missouri -13.5 vs West Virginia
The Missouri Tigers lost at Wyoming 37-31 last week, while West Virginia held off arguably the best team in the FCS in James Madison 20-13. As a result, something seems off about this line, which is why I absolutely love it. I will buy into the narrative that Missouri is going to come home looking to get the bad taste out of their mouths from a disappointing loss. There were some positives to build on from the game, as Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant looked sharp throwing for 423 yards. Oddsmakers seem like they are begging you to take West Virginia in this matchup. I will not fall for the bait and will take Missouri as a nearly two-touchdown favorite to right the ship.

Clemson -17.5 vs Texas A&M
This feels like another line where the oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog. One year ago, Texas A&M pushed Clemson to the limits before losing 28-26 in College Station. Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond returns, and he torched Clemson for 430 yards passing and three touchdowns last year. The Aggies are ranked 12th in the AP Poll. A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher has also beaten Clemson coach Dabo Swinney four times in their nine head-to-head matchups.

Clemson, meanwhile, returns most of their offense from last year’s national championship team. However, all but one starter from their defensive line has been replaced. Does a change of scenery to Death Valley this year warrant a spread of 17.5 points? This is the biggest regular-season game on Clemson’s schedule, as the ACC won’t challenge them as much as the Aggies will. Coach Swinney will have his Tigers fired up, and will cover the 17.5 points.

Tennessee -4 vs BYU
If you are a Tennessee fan, last week might be the lowest you’ve ever been. The Volunteers entered as 26-point favorites over a Georgia State team that won two games last year and lost the game outright 38-30. The scene in Knoxville wasn’t pretty as fans booed the team mercilessly.

BYU, meanwhile, is coming off a 30-12 loss to their in-state rival Utah. The BYU offense looked lifeless against Utah’s stout front, as they couldn’t muster their first touchdown until the game was out of hand in the fourth quarter. This loss isn’t nearly as humiliating as Tennessee’s since Utah has aspirations of a conference championship. 

I am anticipating a knee-jerk reaction from bettors in that Tennessee cannot beat anyone of substance if they couldn’t beat an inferior Sun Belt Conference opponent. The fact that oddsmakers still made Tennessee a favorite after last week’s debacle is telling. BYU may get caught looking ahead to their showdown with USC. I am betting on a big bounce-back effort from Tennessee this week.  

LSU -6.5 at Texas
Keeping with the theme of surprising lines, LSU being almost a touchdown favorite in Austin may be the most surprising of all. The College Gameday show will be in town for the game, and the Texas crowd is sure to make it a great home-field advantage for their team. However, I am buying what I saw from LSU last week as they trounced Georgia Southern 55-3. LSU hired passing game coordinator Joe Brady in the offseason, which looks like it will pay huge dividends. It was only one game, but that was the most dynamic I have seen an LSU offense in over a decade. Quarterback Joe Burrow completed 85% of his passes last week and threw for five touchdowns.

This line suggests that Texas is somewhat overrated even though they are the ninth-ranked team in the country. I will give my respect to the SEC conference and say LSU crashes the party and wins by at least a touchdown.

Stanford at USC Under 45 points
USC lost starting quarterback JT Daniels for the season last week. His replacement is true freshman Kedon Slovis. Slovis faces a stout Stanford defense that just held Northwestern to seven points and only 210 yards of total offense.

Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello is also in jeopardy of missing the game after suffering a head injury last week. The coaching staff is going to monitor his progress and make a decision by Friday. Even if he plays, Stanford will most likely employ another conservative game plan. The Cardinal attempted 34 passes and 39 runs last week, and I think Stanford will rely on its running attack even more in this matchup. Given the uncertainties with both quarterbacks, the under will not get threatened in this game.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.