College Football Best Bets: Week 3

It is quite possible that one of last week’s picks can be classified as the worst “bad beat” of the week. Clemson kicked off as 17.5-point favorites and were in control most of the game, leading by 21 points late in the fourth quarter. With a chance to cover convincingly, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence was intercepted at the Texas A&M nine-yard line. Heartbreak ensued, as A&M quarterback Kellen Mond led a 16-play, 91-yard scoring drive. 

The casual fan might not have been watching as A&M faced a fourth and goal at Clemson’s two-yard line with six seconds left, but bettors sure were. The Aggies scored on that play, cutting the deficit to 24-10 and covering the spread. After the proverbial “backdoor,” last week’s record swung from what would’ve been the second straight profitable week, to a losing week overall. 

Here are my five best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Best Bets for Week 3: NCAA Football

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 5-5

Wake Forest (-3) vs. North Carolina (game played on 9/13)
North Carolina’s players and coaches are starting to feel a sense of invincibility after their first two dramatic victories. UNC came back from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat South Carolina in Week 1. The dramatics continued last week as the Tar Heels scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:01 left to beat ACC Coastal favorite, Miami. 

Although there is an intrastate rivalry with Wake Forest, North Carolina has a much bigger rivalry with their two past opponents. North Carolina is ripe for an emotional letdown after two dramatic victories. While bettors are getting caught up in the hype of the return of coach Mack Brown, no one is paying attention to what is happening at Wake Forest. They have averaged 39.5 PPG in their first two wins. Quarterback Jamie Newman looks to have made a lot of progress in his sophomore season. He and the other six returning starters have this offense humming. If North Carolina is still reveling in their first two wins, this game can get away from them quickly.   

Temple (+7) vs. Maryland
Just like the reasons for fading North Carolina, I am happy to take on the red-hot Terrapins in this one. Maryland is generating some of the biggest buzz out of the Big Ten, as they’ve scored a whopping 142 points in their first two games. Maryland’s 63-point outburst against Syracuse was the most ever against a ranked opponent in school history. AP voters have taken notice, as Maryland is ranked 21st in the latest poll.

I don’t like the spot Maryland is in for this game. This has the ultimate “trap game” written all over it, as Maryland hosts 13th-ranked Penn State next week. Temple, meanwhile, had an extra week to prepare for this game after trouncing Bucknell in Week 1. Given the ease with which Temple beat Bucknell, they most likely did not show too much of their playbook. Look for the more well-rested and better prepared Temple team to cover and possibly win outright in this one.

New Mexico vs. Notre Dame UNDER 63.5 points
Both New Mexico and Notre Dame come into this game off extended rest. New Mexico beat Sam Houston St. 39-31 in their opener while Notre Dame topped Louisville 35-17. Bettors may look at the 31 points New Mexico allowed to an inferior opponent and assume Notre Dame will score at will. However, it is clear Notre Dame’s offense is in a transition period after losing star wide receiver Miles Boykin and running back Dexter Williams. 

The Fighting Irish passing game never got on track in Week 1, and they did not take any shots downfield. There is also the factor of former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie now coaching for New Mexico (though he may not be on the sidelines due to health issues). It is not the “Notre Dame way” to run up scores against people who have a strong connection to the University. Even if Notre Dame’s offense is clicking in the first half, expect them to take their foot off the gas late in the game. We might also see reserves early in the second half, so as to keep everyone fresh for next week’s battle at Georgia. 

Iowa State (+2.5) vs. Iowa
I love the Cyclones in this spot. The public is down on the Cyclones after their triple-overtime escape over FCS opponent Northern Iowa in Week 1. However, they had a bye week last week to rest and prepare for this rivalry game. College Gameday is coming to Ames, and the stadium is sure to be rocking. Iowa is coming off a 30-0 beatdown as their defense held Rutgers to 125 total yards. However, the Cyclones’ offense is a lot more potent than Rutgers. Look for the Cyclones to pull the upset in what is sure to be a ramped-up environment. 

UCLA (+23) vs. Oklahoma
On paper, this looks like a lopsided battle. Oklahoma looks like they have not missed a beat from their last two Heisman quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts has looked every bit a Heisman contender himself, leading the Sooners to two impressive wins. UCLA, on the other hand, just lost outright to San Diego State, a game in which they were 7.5-point favorites. This dropped their record to 0-2, and the heat is already on coach Chip Kelly. 

This is a prime example of a “fade the public” play. Not many bettors are going to have faith in the Bruins after their lackluster start. I will bet on UCLA to keep this close and hope traveling to the West Coast takes something out of Oklahoma’s attack.

FanDuel Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.