College Football Best Bets: Week 4

Last week was another profitable one if you bet on the advertised spreads and over/unders. However, there was an opportunity for more profit if you took the bet on Temple (seven-point underdogs) on the money line. I loved Temple in that spot since it seemed like the public was overhyping Maryland’s hot start. 

As has been a theme with our picks for the first three weeks, you can make big profits by employing various draft strategies. Fading the public or identifying teams in “trap games” can go a long way in beating the oddsmakers. I used both of these strategies in this week’s picks. 

Here are my five best bets for Week 4 of the college football season. 

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Best Bets for Week 4: College Football

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 3-2
YTD: 8-7

University of Southern California (+4) vs. Utah (game played on 9/20)
The Pac-12 South may be on the line as early as Week 4, as division favorites Utah and USC square off. Utah and USC both have a common opponent in the same venue this year. Utah won at BYU 30-12 in Week 1, while USC lost 30-27 in overtime at BYU last week. This alone will have bettors thinking Utah is the right side. However, history tells us that Utah has never beaten USC in the Coliseum, and is just 1-8 all-time when they play in Los Angeles.

USC true freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis cannot turn the ball over three times as he did against BYU if the Trojans expect to win this game. As stout as Utah’s defense is (allowing just 239.3 YPG), expect the Trojans to use their speed to neutralize Utah’s physical front. USC has three wide receivers with NFL futures on their roster, and I expect Slovis to find them early and often. Slovis ranks fifth in the country in completion percentage, so it is clear this offense can move the ball. Whereas many will be down on USC after last week’s disappointing loss, this looks like a nice bounce-back spot. I’d lay off if it was bet down closer to +3, but getting four points in this matchup is too good to pass up.

Appalachian State (+3) at North Carolina
Fading UNC was the right choice last week, and this week looks like a great opportunity once again. UNC is a team that beat an SEC team in South Carolina, and ACC Coastal favorite Miami to start the year. Their second-half comeback against Wake Forest fell just short last week.

This is a game that I think the Tar Heels are looking past, as they host Clemson next week. Meanwhile, Appalachian State scored 98 points and rushed for 553 yards combined in their wins over East Tennessee State and Charlotte. The Mountaineers come into this game rested off of a bye, and I trust in new head coach Eliah Drinkwitz’s offensive creativity to not only cover the three points but to win outright. 

Auburn vs. Texas A&M UNDER 48 points
Both Auburn and Texas A&M have faced highly-ranked opponents this year, and both teams’ defenses stood tall. Auburn held a high-powered Oregon offense to 21 points, and have held their last two opponents to 22 points combined. Texas A&M held Clemson, arguably the nation’s best offense, to 24 points. Both teams rank in the top-35 in rushing yards allowed per game and are top-22 in total points allowed per game. 

Kyle Field offers some of the best home-field advantages in the country, and Auburn’s true freshman quarterback Bo Nix will struggle in this atmosphere. Look for Auburn’s talented defensive line to give Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond fits and for this game to be a classic low-scoring SEC grind.

Old Dominion (+29) at Virginia
This is the quintessential “trap game” for Virginia. The Cavaliers are ranked 21st in the country after an exhilarating win over rival Florida State last week. They go on the road to South Bend to face Notre Dame next week. I can forgive the Cavaliers players if they don’t exactly rise to the occasion against Old Dominion this week. ODU is rested after their bye week, and they played Virginia Tech tough two weeks ago. There’s no reason to think they cannot do it against Virginia, especially given that they won’t have the team’s full attention.

Oklahoma State (+5.5) at Texas
Texas came into this season as one of my most overhyped teams. That has not changed even after a hard-fought loss to LSU. Texas has a lot of players dealing with nagging injuries. Wide receiver Collin Johnson, center Zach Shackelford and linebacker Joseph Ossai all expect to play after suffering injuries last game. Starting safety B.J. Foster’s injury is more serious as he has already been ruled out.

Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard is the nation’s leading rusher with 173.7 yards per game. Wide receiver Tylan Wallace is out to prove why he is one of the best in the country. LSU exposed the Longhorns’ defense, and I expect that the explosive Cowboys offense will do the same.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.