College Football Best Bets: Week 6

Last week started on a very promising note as we hit our first two picks (Penn State/Maryland UNDER 60 and Washington -9.5). It went downhill from there en route to a 2-3 week overall. Notre Dame was outgained by Virginia 338-322, but used five turnovers to create scoring opportunities and ultimately cover the spread. While the Virginia pick had a great chance to cash throughout, the last two didn’t stand much of a chance. Auburn and Ohio State flexed their muscles in the night games and demolished Mississippi State and Nebraska, respectively. They won their games by a combined score of 104-30 and covered by an average of 23 points. If we are going to have a losing week, it could be a lot worse than 2-3. Undeterred, we forge on and go back to the practice of fading the public and identifying “trap games.”

Here are my five best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.

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Best Bets for Week 6: College Football

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 13-11-1

Tulane (-3) at Army
It is highly unpatriotic of me to bet against Army, but I love Tulane in this spot. Tulane has had an important extra week off to prepare for this unique triple-option attack. Tulane should be very familiar with the triple-option as they face conference rival Navy every year. In the game against Navy last year, Tulane jumped out to a 21-3 halftime lead before holding on to win. In that game, the Green Wave held Navy to 117 yards rushing, which was 187 yards below their average at the time. Tulane won their last meeting against Army back in 2017 by a score of 21-17. The Green Wave defense is one of the best in the AAC, led by stud DE Patrick Johnson.

The public will surely be on Army, as their near-victory in the Big House against Michigan four weeks should still resonate positively with bettors. At the time of this writing, 71% of the money (according to covers.com) is on Army, yet the line has still risen from -1.5 to -3. This implies that sharp money is coming in on Tulane, and rightfully so given their good track record against the triple-option. For one last gambling tidbit, Army is 1-9 ATS in their last ten home games against AAC opponents.

Bowling Green (+45.5) at Notre Dame
I’m coming back for the second-consecutive week to take my shot at the Fighting Irish. This is a quintessential “trap game” for Notre Dame. They badly needed a solid performance against a highly ranked Virginia team last week to stay relevant in the playoff conversation. Next week, they welcome their bitter rival USC to South Bend for a night game under the lights. Head coach Brian Kelly is more likely approaching this game as a tune-up for next week’s showdown with the Trojans.

Notre Dame’s defense suffered two significant injuries last week, losing star DE Daelin Hayes for the season with a torn labrum and cornerback Shaun Crawford for multiple weeks with a dislocated elbow. It is a win for the Irish if they can get out of this game healthy, considering their next two opponents are USC and Michigan. Look for Notre Dame’s offensive game-plan to be very vanilla in the second half while resting their key starters. Bowling Green should be able to cover such a big number. 

Texas at West Virginia (+11)
If Notre Dame’s can be considered a “trap game,” then Texas is facing a “lookahead spot” when they travel to Morgantown this week. That’s because Oklahoma is next up for the Longhorns in the annual Red River shootout. Given that Texas already lost to LSU, they cannot afford any more losses if they want to be considered for the playoff. West Virginia is 3-0-2 ATS in their last five home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Mountaineers quarterback Austin Kendall should be able to move the ball against the Longhorns defense, which ranks 102nd in yards allowed per game. West Virginia will cover this double-digit spread against a team that is already looking forward to next week.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech (+10.5)
North Carolina was the talk of college football last week as they came within a two-point conversion of upsetting the number one ranked team in the country. If the public is so focused on this, they will forget that this is the same team that lost to both Wake Forest and Appalachian State the two weeks prior to the Clemson game. North Carolina is 1-9 SU at Georgia Tech since 1999. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is 16-6 SU in 22 games against UNC. Georgia Tech is off to a terrible 1-3 start that includes a loss to the Citadel. However, I expect the public to analyze that against UNC’s near upset of Clemson, resulting in one-sided money on UNC. When that happens, I will gladly take the other side.

Oregon (-17.5) vs. California
At first glance, this spread looks awfully high, considering that just last week, California was the 15th-ranked team in the country. However, this line became inflated after California lost at home to Arizona State last Friday night and lost their starting quarterback in the process. UCLA transfer Devon Modster will make his first start against Oregon after Cal quarterback Chase Garbers injured his shoulder. Modster was 5-14 with 23 yards passing and one interception in relief last week. Going into a hostile Autzen Stadium is not the best place to make your first career start. Look for the Ducks and quarterback Justin Herbert to make a statement against Cal this week.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.