College Football Best Bets: Week 7

Last week, college football has three ranked versus ranked matchups, and all of them disappointed to some degree. Ohio State proved too much for Michigan State as they coasted to a 34-10 victory. Florida stymied Bo Nix and the Auburn Tigers en route to a 24-13 victory in the swamp. Lastly, although Michigan and Iowa was a competitive game, it was an utter snoozefest. Michigan held on for a 10-3 victory after both teams combined to go scoreless in the second half.

This week there are four matchups of top-25 teams (Oklahoma-Texas, Alabama-Texas A&M, Penn State-Iowa, Florida-LSU) that will hopefully deliver some compelling football. Some of these games and others are analyzed in this week’s best bets column, as we try to get on the right side of a .500 winning percentage.

Here are my five best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.

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Best Bets for Week 7: College Football

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 1-3-1
YTD: 14-14-2

Virginia at Miami (-1.5): Game played on 10/11
This is a line that certainly has me scratching my head. Virginia comes in rested off a bye and just gave Notre Dame all they could handle on the road. Virginia outgained Notre Dame for the game, and if not for costly turnovers that led to short fields or direct points, Virginia could have had a chance to win late in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes dropped to 2-3 and 0-2 in the ACC with a disappointing 42-35 loss to Virginia Tech at home. The Hokies came into the game struggling mightily, barely beating Old Dominion and Furman and getting routed by Duke at home.

Everything that has been summarized leads to Virginia being a no-brainer play. Perhaps Miami can find motivation in the fact that they rallied from 21 points down in the fourth quarter to tie the game last week. Either way, the fact that this line is so puzzling makes me think Vegas knows something I don’t. I will trust the oddsmakers and lay the points with the Hurricanes.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (+11)
Texas head coach Tom Herman has an incredible ATS track record when facing Oklahoma. While Herman was at Houston, his Cougars upset the third-ranked Sooners in the first week of the 2016 season. Since taking the Texas job, he is 1-2 SU against Oklahoma. In 2017, Texas covered as nine-point underdogs in a 29-24 loss to Oklahoma. Last year, Texas won outright in their regular-season matchup 48-45 as seven-point underdogs. The lone game Coach Herman has failed to cover since he joined Texas was last year’s Big 12 Championship, losing 39-27 as 7.5-point underdogs. 

Overall, Texas is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus OU. Texas’ offense has the firepower to keep up with the Sooners’ offense, just like they did against LSU. 11 points are too much to lay with Oklahoma given the track record between these teams, so I will happily take the points.

Penn State at Iowa (+4)
Iowa has a penchant for knocking off top-10 teams at home, especially under the lights. From 2008-2016, Iowa faced four top-10 teams at home and went 3-1 SU. In 2017, they had an eighth-ranked Penn State team on the ropes before losing by two. They then obliterated the sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes 55-24 later in the season. That loss still stands as Urban Meyer’s worst-ever conference defeat. 

I know Iowa could only muster 261 total yards and three points against Michigan last week. I also have been impressed with the play of Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford thus far. In his first year as starting quarterback, Clifford has thrown 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions. However, Iowa knows its Big Ten West Division hopes are on the line in this one. I expect the Hawkeyes to play inspired under the lights as they have done so often in the past. 

Florida at LSU (-13)
If you think it is tough to play at Iowa at night, have you ever seen a night game in Baton Rouge? All Florida gets after an impressive 11-point victory against Auburn is to be near two-touchdown underdogs at LSU. Though Florida has had some impressive victories, it has not been because of their offensive line play or their running game. The inexperience on the offensive line will manifest itself on the road in a hostile environment. It also doesn’t help that Gators quarterback Kyle Trask is not 100% after a big hit to his knee last week. The only chance Florida has of staying close in this game is if they get another standout performance from their defense. I don’t like the chances of that given how dominant Joe Burrow and the LSU offense has looked through five games. 

Washington at Arizona (+6.5)
I loved Washington’s chances of winning the PAC-12 and having a shot at the playoffs before the season started. Those hopes have completely vanished after their 1-2 conference start. The Huskies seemed lifeless in a 23-13 loss at Stanford last week, and I wonder how much motivation they have to hit the road again and face a talented quarterback in Arizona’s Khalil Tate. It also doesn’t help that Washington might be looking ahead to their next two opponents when they face Oregon and Utah at home back-to-back. Arizona should cover the near touchdown spread against a Washington team whose motivation level may not be at its highest.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.