College Football Best Bets: Week 8 (2020)
After Clemson destroyed Georgia Tech 73-7 and Alabama outscored Georgia 21-0 in the second half en route to an easy 41-24 victory, it felt appropriate to post the following poll on Twitter.
The 19% who voted for the other combination of teams likely realize that projected powerhouses like Ohio State still have yet to play. That will change this weekend, as the Big Ten will join the college football party after sitting out nearly the first two months of the season. Bettors will have to decide whether they want to dive right in wagering on some Big Ten games or wait to see how some teams look on the field after a long layoff. There is no correct decision as long as those that do wager put in the time to research what all teams have coming back instead of betting blindly.
Here are my top four plays for Week 8 in college football.
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Best Bets for Week 8: College Football
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 3-1
YTD: 15-9
Florida State at Louisville (-3.5)
The Florida State Seminoles are coming off their biggest win in years, knocking off the No. 5 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels 31-28. They have played like a different team ever since Jordan Travis was named starting quarterback two weeks ago. Dating back to the start of last season, when Travis was not on the field, the Seminoles averaged 7.45 yards per pass and 3.27 yards per rush. With Travis on the field, the offense is averaging 9.3 yards per pass and 6.1 yards per rush. They’re nearly twice as good with him under center, and he has given two top-five defenses (Notre Dame, UNC) fits in the last two weeks. All this, and the Seminoles are decent-sized underdogs this week?
Louisville did not play well offensively in South Bend last week, and they still nearly pulled off the upset of the No. 4 Fighting Irish. Though the weather conditions helped, they still held Notre Dame to 106 yards passing and 338 total yards. And while they allowed 4.7 yards per carry, they did well against a mobile quarterback in Ian Book. Book ran for fewer than four yards per carry on his 12 attempts, which is bodes well for defending Jordan Travis. The Cardinals are 1-4 and in search of their first ACC win. This fishy line suggests that the Seminoles are in store for a bit of a letdown this week while Louisville will build off the momentum from a near top-five upset on the road.
PICK: Louisville -3.5
Alabama (-11.5 First Half Spread) at Tennessee
Perhaps the pollsters got a little ahead of themselves ranking Tennessee at No. 14 prior to their game against Georgia two weeks ago. After two conference wins to open the season, the Volunteers have lost their last two games to No. 3 Georgia and unranked Kentucky by an average of 25 PPG. Starting quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was benched against Kentucky after going 14-for-21 for just 88 yards and two interceptions. That really makes you wonder why Alabama is favored by only 20.5 points, considering they nearly beat Georgia by more than that.
In taking Alabama for the full game, there is always the possibility they take their foot off the gas and get backdoored in the second half. That happened in Week 1 against Missouri, as Alabama took a 28-3 halftime lead but failed to cover the full game 29 point spread when they won 38-19. After leading Missouri and Texas A&M by 25 and 21 points at the half, respectively, Alabama was tied at halftime with Ole Miss and trailed Georgia by four points at the break. Nick Saban is too good of a coach and motivator not to have his players fired up for this rivalry game on the road after two straight weeks of not playing well in the first half. Instead of worrying about a backdoor cover or why the 20.5-point full game spread looks so fishy, the smarter wager is taking the Crimson Tide’s first-half spread.
PICK: Alabama -11.5 First Half
Penn State at Indiana (Over/Under 58.5)
The Nittany Lions and Hoosiers each return some of the highest percentages of offensive starters in the conference. Indiana returns eight offensive starters, most notably sophomore quarterback Michael Penix Jr. He will have two of his top targets from last year back in wide receiver Whop Philyor and tight end Peyton Hendershot. Indiana finished 22nd in the country in offensive SP+ last year, and even though offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer left for the Fresno State head coaching job, incumbent coordinator Nick Sheridan knows the offense well because he was the team’s quarterback coach last year.
Penn State also returns their quarterback, along with seven other starters on offense. Sean Clifford will look to feed tight end Pat Freiermuth early and often. New offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca will bring with him many of the principles that worked so well for Minnesota’s offense last year, and the Nittany Lions will look to continue to make strides on that side of the ball. Penn State’s defense received a crucial blow when Micah Parsons, perhaps the best linebacker in the country, opted out of the season late. Thus, it will take some time for Penn State to adjust to his absence.
With so many returning starters back from good offenses a year ago, this game should turn into a shootout.
PICK: OVER 58.5
Georgia Tech (+3.5) at Boston College
Most college football fans can recite what Georgia Tech’s result was last week. It was hard to miss Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s five-touchdown first half en route to a 73-7 blowout of the Yellow Jackets. However, that lopsided result will have many people forgetting that Georgia Tech has beaten Florida State and Louisville this year. Those two teams are suddenly the buzz of the conference after the Seminoles beat the No. 5 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels and Louisville nearly upset the No. 4 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish on the road.
Suddenly, Boston College’s near-defeat of the Tar Heels and victory over Pittsburgh don’t look as good as they did at the time. The Eagles are coming off of a blowout loss of their own, though not as egregious as Georgia Tech’s. Boston College lost by 40-14 to Virginia Tech in a game where they committed five turnovers and were outrushed 350-90. It is clear that Boston College’s identity is throwing the ball behind the big arm of quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who attempted 51 passes last week. Georgia Tech’s 307.6 passing yards per game allowed is somewhat misleading, considering that they faced Trevor Lawrence, Malik Cunningham (Louisville), and Dillon Gabriel (UCF) in three of their five games. The public thinks the Yellow Jackets are a laughing stock after last week, which makes them a great buy-low team this week.
PICK: Georgia Tech +3.5
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.