College Football Best Bets: Week 9 (2020)

by Mike Spector |
Oct 29, 2020

The Big 10 commenced play last week and was responsible for one of the craziest finishes we have seen this season. I still say the ball from Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s reach on the two-point conversion against Penn State hit out-of-bounds before it reached the pylon, but that is neither here nor there. We are a week away from the last Power 5 conference to commence their season, as the PAC-12 will have a full slate of conference games. What kind of craziness are we in store for on Halloween weekend?

Here are my top four plays for Week 9 in college football.

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Best Bets for Week 9: College Football

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Last Week: 3-1
YTD: 18-10

Georgia-Kentucky OVER/UNDER 42.5

This is a matchup of the two-best scoring defenses in the SEC and two of the top-20 scoring defenses in the country. The Bulldogs and Wildcats are averaging a pedestrian 39.5 combined points allowed.

Running the ball on Georgia this year has been downright impossible, as they have allowed just 65.5 rushing yards per game. As a result, Kentucky will have to find other ways to score, as they come into the game ranked second in the SEC with 183.8 rushing YPG.

After a slow start to the season, the Wildcats’ defense led by Mark Stoops has allowed fewer than 10 PPG in their last three games. With this game being a noon kickoff, there is an extra reason to like the under, as early games typically don’t have the same energy level as night games do.

PICK: UNDER 42.5

Kansas State at West Virginia (-3.5)

Yes, you are reading that correctly. The No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats are underdogs against the unranked and two-loss West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. If this is not the definition of a “fishy line,” I don’t know what is.

However, a deeper dive into the numbers suggests oddsmakers know exactly what they are doing with this line. Aside from their rivalry game against the lowly Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State has been outgained in all four of their other games. That includes being outgained by over 100 yards by the Sun Belt’s Arkansas State and the Oklahoma Sooners.

Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have outgained all five of their opponents, including the now-No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys. Kansas State is likely still ranked as a result of their win over then-No. 3 Oklahoma, but we have seen that this is not the dominant Sooners team that Lincoln Riley normally has. You shouldn’t take the bait here. Instead, go against what “feels right” and take the favorites.

PICK: West Virginia -3.5

Michigan State (+24.5) at Michigan

This is my least confident play of the four, but it’s one I feel has to be made. These teams are surrounded by opposing narratives heading into their second games. The Michigan State Spartans are already getting written off after an embarrassing loss at home to usual Big 10 bottom-feeder Rutgers. Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines went into Minnesota and dominated the Golden Gophers 49-24 in the conference’s marquee game on opening weekend.

As a result, the average bettor will look at this game and automatically side with Michigan based on what they have seen so far. But we learned just before kickoff that Minnesota was dealing with a vast number of COVID-19 issues before the game. Their kicker and punter missed the game, as did half the starters on their offensive line. Regarding Michigan State, they never had a chance to beat Rutgers after many of their seven turnovers led to great Rutgers field position and easy scoring opportunities.

We have seen many close battles between these fierce rivals over the years. While head coach Jim Harbaugh would like nothing more than to take this opportunity to pound “little brother,” the Spartans have too much pride just to roll over. The underdogs are in a great buy-low spot here.

PICK: Michigan State +24.5

North Carolina at Virginia (+7.5)

Our last bet of the week is our second wager on a “fishy line.” It seems odd that the No. 13 North Carolina Tar Heels are laying just barely over a touchdown to a 1-4 Virginia Cavaliers team. Virginia has only beaten Duke, and they have lost their other four contests by an average of 14.3 PPG. However, Virginia has been the victim of a brutal early-season ACC schedule, as they’ve already played Clemson, NC State, and Miami — all of which have been ranked this season.

The Cavaliers will look to build off the momentum of their close loss at Miami. They lost by just five points, and they held Miami’s potent rushing attack to just 2.5 YPC. That type of effort bodes well for them this week, as they’ll have to take on the Tar Heels’ two-headed monster: Michael Carter and Javonte Williams. Virginia has the fifth-ranked rush defense in the conference, and they should do just enough defensively to hang with the Tar Heels for four quarters.

PICK: Virginia +7.5

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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