College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker (2023)

College Football Bowl Season is here. But that doesn’t mean our work is done. Here, we’ll track all of the players who will be opting out of their team’s respective bowl games in this College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker. Opt-outs have a significant impact on these games. Bowl season was already a unique beast. The transfer portal and free-player-movement era has added an entirely new dimension to that.

This column will be updated regularly throughout bowl season as news comes in. So bookmark this link and check back frequently for updates. Special thanks to BP contributor Eric Froton for his work on this project.

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College Football Bowl Game Opt-Out Tracker

Michigan vs. Washington

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, January 8 | 7:30p CST | ESPN
Total: 55.5 | ATL: Michigan -9.4 | ATT: 53.7

Michigan Wolverines

• RB CJ Stokes | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Leon Franklin | 23 snaps | Transfer portal

Injury news: Stud RG Zak Zinter, a unanimous All-American, suffered a season-ending broken tibia and fibia against Ohio State. Zinter (649 reps) was sporting a 76.6 PFF overall grade at the time of his injury. He was regarded as one of the nation’s best interior offensive linemen.

You can’t soften that blow, but the following is an objective fact: Michigan has the nation’s deepest offensive line. In the preseason, Senior Bowl czar Jim Nagy tweeted that eight different Wolverine offensive linemen were on the game’s watchlist. In other words, three backups were intriguing draft-eligible prospects. This manifested immediately, when ballyhooed Arizona State transfer OT LaDarius Henderson failed to win a starting job out of camp. He was upset by Karsen Barnhart. But Henderson had taken over that post by the end of September, kicking Barnhart to RT. When Zinter went down, bringing this full circle, Michigan summoned 325-pounder OT Trente Jones to take over at OT, kicking Barnhart to RG to plug Zinter’s hole.

Jones has posted a sterling 86.3 PFF blocking grade. The 6-foot-5, 315-pound Barnhart is a bit of a tweener, in that at tackle he’s a strong run-blocker who can hurt you in pass-pro, and at guard, he’s been exceptional in pass-pro in a small sample without the same movement in the run game against bigger interior defenders.

Coaching News: After covering his first three bowl games — all at Stanford — HC Jim Harbaugh had been on an 0-6 SU and ATS streak prior to beating (and covering over) Alabama on Monday. The Wolverines fired LB coach Chris Partridge during the regular season.

Washington Huskies

• CB Vincent Nunley | 213 snaps | Transfer portal

Other opt-out news: QB2 Dylan Morris (53 snaps) is in the transfer portal, but he will stay with the team through the CFP to back up QB1 Michael Penix Jr.

Injury news: RB Dillon Johnson left Monday’s semifinal win over Texas with a leg injury with just under one minute left to play. Johnson had 21 carries for 49 yards and two TD against the Longhorns prior to getting hurt.

UW OC Ryan Grubb said on Tuesday that the team expects Johnson to play in the national title game. “We do expect him to play. X-rays that were taken at the Superdome were negative.” The All-Pac 12 second-teamer had run for 1,113 yards and 14 TD entering the game. Johnson has been playing hurt for more than a month now. He played the last three games of the season with a foot injury.

Washington had better hope that Johnson indeed can gut it out again. The Huskies are thin at RB depth at the moment. Backup RB Sam Adams II was inactive for the semifinals and in street clothes due to an injury. Backup RB Richard Newton has been plagued with bothersome knee issues all season, one reason he’s mostly only seen special teams duties (five carries).

Remaining on the depth chart for Washington at the position are young speedster Tybo Rogers, sophomore Will Nixon, and KR Daniyel Ngata.

Standout CB1 Jabbar Muhammad was also shaken up near the end of the game while breaking up a pass in the end zone. Muhammad will reportedly be fine for Monday.

Backup OC Landen Hatchett (120 snaps) suffered a season-ending knee injury in practices leading up to the game against Texas. He appeared in nine games this season.

Coaching News: With last Monday’s upset win over Texas, HC Kalen DeBeor improved to 5-0 SU at Washington as an underdog and 8-1 ATS over his career. He’s now 2-0 SU and ATS in bowl games.

Previously-played games

Georgia Southern (-3.5) vs. Ohio

Myrtle Beach Bowl | Conway, SC

Saturday, December 16 | 11:00a | ESPN

Total: 48.5 | ATL: GSU -6.6 | ATT: 38.3

Ohio

• QB Kurtis Rourke | 675 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Sieh Bangura | 483 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB O’Shaan Allison | 335 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Miles Cross | 617 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR/TE Aramoni Rhone | 59 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tyler Walton | 598 snaps | Transfer portal

Rourke, PFF’s highest-graded quarterback in 2022 prior to tearing his ACL in mid-November, transferred to Indiana on Dec. 14. Rourke’s PFF grade fell from 92.0 to 82.6 this fall – he was the MAC’s Offensive player of the Year in 2022 – but he was still the Bobcats’ highest-graded player in 2023.

Ohio will also be without their top-2 RBs in this game. Bangura, in particular, is a big loss. He ran for nearly 2,000 yards between 2022-2023 with 20 rushing scores. Ohio is in a sticky RB situation for the bowl. Only two other RB on the roster saw the field in 2023. But those guys, RBs Rickey Hunt and Quintell Quinn, combined for a mere 16 snaps and 41 rushing yards (all but seven of those yards coming in the 38-7 blowout victory in Week 3 against Bowling Green).

Cross was Ohio’s WR2 across from Sam Wiglusz. But Cross actually out-gained and out-TD’d Wiglusz on five less targets and four less receptions, averaging 1.5 more YPC. WR/TE Rhone didn’t have a catch over four targets in 2023.

Injury news: Last year’s QB2, CJ Harris, is OFY due to what he deemed a “medical emergency” in September. Harris was the starter in Ohio’s Arizona Bowl game victory last year after Rourke was knocked out for the season. The Bobcats will likely have to turn to QB3 Parker Navarro in the bowl game. Ohio WR Jacoby Jones – a starter since 2022 – is also OFY following a Week 4 leg injury.

Georgia Southern

• QB Beau Allen | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Myles Winslow | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jalen Denton | 188 snaps | Transfer portal
• LS Mark Langston | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

Nothing to see here.

Injury news: RB1 Jalen White (504 snaps) suffered an undisclosed injury in Week 12 and did not play in the 55-27 loss to Appalachian State to close the regular season. RB2 OJ Arnold posted 110 total yards of offense in his absence. White’s status for this game is not yet known.

Coaching news: GSU fired CB coach Kevin Whitley.

Jacksonville State (-3.5) vs. Louisiana

New Orleans Bowl | New Orleans, LA

Saturday, December 16 | 2:15p | ESPN

Jacksonville State (-3.5) vs. Louisiana | Total: 58.5

ATL: Louisiana -1.4 | ATT: 65.7

Jacksonville State

• K Alen Karajic | 127 snaps | Transfer portal

Karajic was a four-year starter at kicker for JSU. He went 14-for-20 on field goal attempts during the regular season, with half those misses coming from 40-plus yards out.

Injury news: Jacksonville State is expected to be without impact starting defenders EDGE Jaylen Swain (500 snaps) and CB Jabari Mack (400 snaps) due to injuries.

Louisiana

• LB Kendre Gant | 536 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Cejae Ceasar | 33 snaps | Transfer portal

Gant was Louisiana’s best linebacker, and the Ragin’ Cajuns’ No. 3-graded PFF defender. His absence hurts, but it would have hurt more in a different matchup. Gant was one of Louisiana’s top pass-defenders, due to his pass-rushing prowess and coverage ability. But Gant, a tall, skinny linebacker, is not quite as good in run support. Against the run-heavy Fightin’ RichRods, run defense is the name of the game.

Injury news: QB1 Ben Woolridge was lost for the season in September with a foot injury. Louisiana then lost QB2 Zeon Chriss to a leg injury. TE Jonathan Caldwell is out with an undisclosed issue. Starters C Landon Burton (606 snaps) and S Courtline Flowers (592 snaps) are both questionable for the bowl. RB1 Dre’lyn Washington is questionable for personal reasons.

Appalachian State (-6.5) vs. Miami (OH)

Cure Bowl | Orlando, FL

Saturday, December 16 | 3:30p | ABC

Appalachian State (-6.5) vs. Miami (OH) | Total: 42.5

ATL: Appy -2.7 | ATT: 51.7

Appalachian State 

• RB Nate Noel | 401 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Coen Sutton | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Dashaun Davis | 337 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Seth Williams | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Donovan Spellman | 150 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB James Edwards | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

RB1 Noel was arguably Appy State’s best offensive player. He was a four-year contributor who averaged 5.7 YPA over his Mountaineer career. In his place, Appy will turn to RB2 Kanye Roberts. Roberts showed more receiving chops than Noel this fall – reeling in 13-of-14 targets – but his game currently lags behind Noel elsewhere.

The other opt-outs are negligible. Davis was the WR3. Multiple backup Appy St. receivers have out-played Davis’ per-snap metrics when on the field. Spellman’s replaceable.

Injury news: QB Ryan Burger was knocked out for the season in the first game. Joey Aguilar’s strong season (33/9 TD/INT) healed that wound quickly. He’s better than Burger.

Miami (OH)

• QB Aveon Smith | 342 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Daisjuan Mercer | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

The RedHawks went 5-0 in the games Smith started following the season-ending injury to QB1 Brett Gabbert. That record flatters him. Smith is a scrambler who offers very little as a passer (50.0% completions with a 2/2 TD/INT rate in 2023). But Smith’s absence will be felt in this game with Gabbert on the shelf. Smith offered the offense one key thing: The ability to generate tough yards inside yards, saving on RB1 Rashad Amos’ workload while ensuring defenses couldn’t solely key on him.

The RedHawks will turn to QB3 Henry Hesson in the bowl game. Hesson attempted five passes in 2022. His first throw of the bowl game will be his first pass attempt of 2023.

Other opt-out news: The RedHawks got bad news on QB Smith, but good news elsewhere. Not only has Gabbert announced his return for next season, but arguably Miami’s best players in all phases announced their returns. WR1 Gage Larvadain and LB Matt Salopek said they were sticking around following the regular season. Larvadain exploded for a 16-353-3 line in the first two games before injuries conspired to muck up a chunk of the last 10. Salopek had 134 total tackles en route to MAC Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2023. He has finished with 100+ tackles in three-straight seasons. Groza Award-winning K Graham Nicholson entered the portal following the season but reversed course and announced he would return to school in 2024. The RedHawks overcame the No. 107 SP+ offense with the No. 14 defense and No. 1 special teams. Nicholson was perfect from within 40 yards, and 10-for-11 on 40+ yard attempts. The RedHawks were No. 5 nationally in FG Value per Kick and No. 14 in kickoff efficiency.

Injury news: QB1 Gabbert (429 snaps) is OFY. WR1 Larvadain returned from a four-week absence to catch two passes in the MAC title game against Toledo. Larvadain will assuredly be healthier in the bowl game than we’ve seen him since September.

New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State

New Mexico Bowl | Albuquerque, NM

Saturday, December 16 | 5:45p | ABC

New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State | Total: 51.0

ATL: NMSU -4.1 | ATT: 50.2

New Mexico State

• WR Ta’ir Brooks | 11 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Tyler Devera | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Tyriece Thomas | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Malachi McLean | 83 snaps | Transfer portal

Zero impact.

Injury news: On Dec. 8, NMSU HC Jerry Kill said QB1 Diego Pavia will play in this game. According to Kill, Pavia played through a shoulder injury in the Conference USA title game loss to Liberty before he succumbed and was lifted. If Pavia gets hurt during the game, NMSU would likely turn to QB2 Eli Stowers. Stowers was sick the week of the CUSA title game, but was forced into action after QB3 Blaze Berlowitz suffered an undisclosed injury. It’s unclear if Berlowitz will be healthy enough to return for this game.

Fresno State 

• QB Logan Fife | 200 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Hayden Pulis | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Tanner Blount | 15 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Crishawn Gordon | 282 snaps | Transfer portal

QB2 Fife bombed when forced into action for 91 attempts to replace injured QB1 Mikey Keene. He has now reportedly transferred to Minnesota.

By the per-snap numbers, S Gordon was the team’s most effective defender in coverage (9.4 raw QB allowed on targets).

Injury news: Starting LT Jacob Spomer (641 snaps) is OFY. Spomer was the team’s best offensive lineman. LT2 Toreon Penright has gotten lit up like a Christmas tree. Despite only taking 58 pass-pro reps in 2023, Penright is only one sack allowed (2) off the team lead (3), and his 8.6% pressure rate is more than 6.0% higher than any of the team’s top-6 OL snaps. This was Spomer’s specialty, with a 1.3% pressure rate allowed in 392 pass-pro reps.

Coaching News: Fresno State HC Jeff Tedford will miss this game to tend to an undisclosed health issue. ESPN reported that Tedford is expected to return as HC next season. The Bulldogs elevated LB coach and assistant HC Tim Skipper to interim HC for this game. Fresno State is 3-7 ATS in bowls since 2008.

UCLA (-6.5) vs. Boise State

Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl | Inglewood, CA

Saturday, December 16 | 7:30p | ABC

UCLA (-6.5) vs. Boise State | Total: 48.5

ATL: UCLA -5.1 | ATT: 45.1

UCLA

• QB Dante Moore | 432 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Keegan Jones | 105 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Kam Brown | 332 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Carsen Ryan | 365 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Jake Wiley | 93 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Laiatu Latu | 545 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Kamari Ramsey | 578 snaps | Transfer portal
• S William Nimmo | 345 snaps | Transfer portal

Moore’s defection wasn’t part of the long-term plan. But for this game, it helps UCLA. Veteran QB Ethan Garbers was easily more productive as a thrower against both man and zone coverage while taking fewer sacks and turning the ball over less. UCLA’s offensive metrics are different with Garbers under center. Garbers’ early injury in the finale against Cal – opening the door for Moore’s final appearance as a Bruin – sealed the Bruins’ fate in a 33-7 loss. Moore was brutal, a turnover-waiting-to-happen that took multiple terrible sacks. Moore may be a star in the future, but at present, Garbers and QB3 Collin Schlee are both better options.

Ryan, an H-Back, lined up around the alignment and displayed some receiving chops, finishing No. 2 on the team in yards per catch over his 13 receptions. RB/WR Jones was the team’s other move-piece of choice. Ryan and Jones were the only skill players on the roster to have receptions when lined up outside, in the slot, inline, and out of the backfield. Ryan was the guy who played within the normal flow of the offense. Jones was the manufactured-touch guy.

EDGE Laiatu Latu, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and winner of the Lombardi Award, announced on Dec. 11 that he will declare for the NFL Draft and skip this game. A potential top-10 overall pick in April, Latu posted 21.5 TFL and 13 sacks. It’s a huge loss. But if there’s one place UCLA has depth, it’s on the EDGE. Twins Gabriel and Grayson Murphy, both NFL-caliber prospects themselves, will take the bulk of snaps against BSU.

S Ramsey was UCLA’s No. 3-graded defender in 2023. S Nimmo was a role player. The Bruins take a hit on the back-end, but they still have two safeties on the roster who had 215-or-more-snaps with PFF grades 72.0-or-higher in Kenny Churchwell III and Jordan Anderson. If one of them suffers an in-game injury, UCLA will have to toss in a replacement who played fewer than 40 defensive snaps during the regular season.

Other opt-out news: I can report that while WR J. Michael Sturdivant is still weighing his options about whether to return to school next year or declare for the NFL Draft, he’s been at bowl practices and is locked in to playing in this game either way.

Injury news: QB Ethan Garbers was knocked out of the season finale against Cal with an undisclosed injury, but is expected to return for the bowl game. If so, UCLA would have two veterans with starting experience at their disposal, with former Kent State QB Collin Schlee providing injury insurance if Garbers gets nicked-up again. RB Carson Steele – who rotates with TJ Harden – and DT1 Gary Steele are both questionable. Steele has an undisclosed injury, while Smith missed the last two games with a toe injury.

Coaching News: UCLA QB coach Ryan Gunderson left to become Oregon State’s new OC. The Bruins also had DC D’Anton Lynn poached by cross-town rival USC to the same position. UCLA improved from No. 89 to No. 11 in total defense in Lynn’s only season. UCLA TE coach Jeff Faris accepted the Austin Peay HC job.

Boise State

• QB Taylen Green | 614 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Eric McAlister | 544 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Kivon Wright | 10 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Green transferred to Arkansas and will not play in this game. With QB2 Maddux Madsen OFY (below), BSU will turn to three-star true freshman QB CJ Tiller as starter in this game. Tiller has not yet taken a collegiate snap.

Though Tiller will benefit from BSU’s nasty run game, the Broncos’ receiving corps has been decimated by opt-outs and injuries, making it difficult to envision BSU having any success through the air.

Other opt-out news: Boise State got unexpected good news on Dec. 5 when RB Ashton Jeanty announced he was returning to school in 2024. Jeant never officially entered the portal, but had seriously mulled a potential move to the P5 before a change of heart. The 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year will play in the bowl game.

Injury news: QB2 Maddux Madsen is OFY. Starting WR Stefan Cobbs, who hasn’t played since Week 10 due to an unspecified injury, is not expected back for the bowl. Backup WR Chase Penry is questionable with his own undisclosed injury. WR Latrell Caples was expected to be a big contributor before a leg injury in August wiped out his season. WR depth is a concern for the Broncos with McAlister out the door and the aforementioned injuries.

Coaching News: The Broncos sat at 5-5 when they fired HC Andy Avalos on Nov. 12. BSU rallied to the MWC championship – where they blew out UNLV 44-20 – with three-straight wins for interim HC Spencer Danielson. On Dec. 3, BSU removed Danielson’s interim tag with a five-year contract to remain as permanent HC. Avalos has since been hired as TCU’s new DC. BSU S coach Kane Ioane left to become the new DC at Nevada.

Texas Tech (-3.5) vs. California

Independence Bowl | Shreveport, LA

Saturday, December 16 | 9:15p | ESPN

Texas Tech (-3.5) vs. California | Total: 56.5

ATL: Texas Tech -0.4 | ATT: 59.9

Texas Tech 

• QB Tyler Shough | 219 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Cam’Ron Valdez | 91 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Myles Price | 438 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jerand Bradley | 613 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Nehemiah Martinez | 45 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Loic Fouonji | 82 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Monroe Mille | 894 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Matt Keeler | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Landon Peterson | 30 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Shough was knocked out for the season – once again – months ago. He has also now waved goodbye to Lubbock via a transfer to Jeff Brohm’s Louisville Cardinals. Shough is a better athlete and runner than QB2 Behren Morton. But Morton is the superior passer.

Bradley and Price were two of the team’s top-three receivers. Tech uses waves of receivers and had six different wideouts who finished with more than 180 routes-run. The Red Raiders have the slot depth to replace Price, but Xavier White and Drae McCray better be prepared to not come off the field much. It’s entirely possible that Tech will fold a bit more 2-TE sets into this gameplan to have TEs Mason Tharp/Baylor Cupp essentially act as Slot3 to give White and McCray breaks.

HC Joey Macguire said Jordan Brown will replace Bradley on the outside across from Coy Eakin. Brown actually bested Bradley this fall in catch rate, yards per target, and yards per route run on a higher air yards per target while posting a drop percentage 3.0% lower. With Fouonji also out the door, the Red Raiders have very little outside depth for this game. But it’s another situation where there might not be much of a drop-off if Tech doesn’t suffer an in-game injury.

LT Mills is easily the biggest loss. He took all of the team’s 859 offensive snaps. The only other player who can say the same is RT Caleb Rogers. That offered Tech bookend stability during the regular season. But it sharpens the sting of Mills’ loss in this game – for the simple fact that no other player on the roster played the position in the fall.

Further, only one backup received more than 20 snaps on offense in the regular season. Tech’s offensive line, the most cohesive offense group the team had, is in flux for the bowl because of Mills’ defection. Backup swing OL Ty Buchanan, mostly a special-teamer in 2023, looks likely to step into the lineup to replace Mills. Buchanan took three snaps at LT against FCS Tarleton in Week 3.

Other opt-out news: RB Tahj Brooks, who previously indicated he would declare for the NFL Draft, announced on Dec. 11 that he’ll return to Lubbock for his final season of eligibility. He has been participating in bowl practices and will play in this game. Tech’s offense runs through Brooks. An All-Big 12 First-Teamer in 2023, Brooks piled up 1,447 rushing yards and nine TD during the regular season. Per PFF, Brooks led the nation with 92 missed tackles forced.

Injury news: QB Behren Morton, banged-up for a large stretch of the campaign, will be 100-percent for the bowl game, per HC Joey Maguire. LG1 Cole Spencer has been on the shelf since early-October with a toe injury. DT1 Jaylon Hutchings (491 snaps), who finished No. 2 in TFL and No. 3 in havoc per snap, underwent season-ending surgery.

California

• QB Ben Finley | 179 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Sam Jackson | 247 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Brayden Rohme | 105 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Everett Johnson | 13 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Seth Williams | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr | 700 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Blake Antzoulatos | 105 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Tyson McWilliams | 5 snaps | Transfer portal

For the briefest moment in time, it looked like Jackson and/or Finley could each lock down the starting gig. But Finley flopped in a 94-attempt sample after injuries began to conspire against Jackson. This paved the way for Fernando Mendoza to steal the QB1 gig. Mendoza was the most effective of the three quarterbacks this fall.

The only loss that really hurts is LB Elarms-Orr, the team’s leading tackler. He also had the most tackles per snap of any Cal defender who played at least half the team’s defensive snaps, while posting the best tackle rate amongst those with more than 475 snaps. Elarms-Orr isn’t a flash player, with modest havoc numbers, but his ability to trigger quickly and end plays when he reaches the doorstep are going to be particularly missed against what was a very good Texas Tech rush offense this fall.

Injury news: LB Jackson Sirmon (328 snaps) is OFY. Of Cal defenders with more than 300 snaps, Sirmon was third in tackles per snap. Cal still has three active, healthy linebackers that it can trust to one degree or another. But the group’s depth has taken an enormous shot. The Golden Bears are one in-game linebacker injury away from things potentially getting hairy. Backup RB Jaivian Thomas (head) returned to practice on Dec. 12, while fellow backup RB Isaiah Ifanse remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury, per HC Justin Wilcox. Thomas has been out since Week 10, while Ifanse has been absent since Week 9.

Coaching news: OC Jake Spavital left to take the same job at Baylor. Cal promoted OL coach Mike Bloesch to fill the void.

Old Dominion (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky

Famous Toastery Bowl | Charlotte, NC

Monday, December 18 | 2:30p | ESPN

Old Dominion (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky | Total: 54.5

ATL: ODU -0.6 | ATT: 51.0

Old Dominion

• WR Javon Harvey | 431 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jordan Bly | 180 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Marquez Bell | 26 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Ethan Presutty | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Mason Howard | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Gideon Bedada | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Demario King | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Devin Brandt-Epps | 245 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Terry Jones | 743 snaps | Transfer portal
• P Ethan Duane | 98 snaps | Transfer portal

The Harvey and Bly defections, at first glance, might appear to be tangible, if not significant. I’d argue they are not.

When on the field, Harvey was ODU’s most-targeted receiver per route. That usage, it turns out, wasn’t justified. Harvey was the Monarch’s preferred manufactured-touch boundary receiver. Of receivers with more than 100 routes run, Harvey lapped the field with nearly one-half of his routes ending in the short sector. Despite that, he had the highest drop-rate of ODU’s three-most targeted receivers. ODU goes five-deep at receiver. I’d prefer to give Harvey’s usage and snaps to the other four.

As for WR Bly, his name is far bigger than his impact. Bly, the son of former NFL CB Dre Bly, posted a cartoonishly bad 2.7 yards per target over his 79 routes. He wouldn’t have played much, if at all, had he not opted-out.

DL Brandt-Epps is replacement-level rotational depth. His loss doesn’t matter. The one that might is S Jones. Where his loss stings is in run defense, and as a reliable last-line-of-defense clean-up guy. Jones was extremely active in support and a reliable last-line-of-defense clean-up guy, finishing the regular season No. 3 on the team with 95 tackles.

S Jones was decent in coverage, but no difference-maker. Pass defense is obviously far more important against WKU than run-game prowess. Here’s the issue: ODU’s backup safeties, who didn’t get a ton of coverage work this fall, did not acquit themselves well in coverage in the aggregated small sample they collectively posted.

Duane was the team’s starting punter.

Injury news: ODU’s biggest loss is two-time All-American LB Jason Henderson. Monarchs HC Ricky Rahne announced on Dec. 7 that Henderson would miss the bowl game with a leg injury suffered in the regular-season finale against Georgia State. Henderson posted 170-tackles-or-more in each of the last two seasons. ODU has another standout starting LB in Wayne Matthews III, but it’s going to be mixing-and-matching next to him.

Western Kentucky

• QB Austin Reed | 796 snaps | NFL Draft
• QB Caden Veltcamp | 10 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Markese Stepp
• WR Josh Sterns | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Wes Dorsey | 678 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Vincent Murphy | 822 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Quantavious Leslie | 787 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Mason Williams | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Wyatt Anderson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT Dareon Goodrum | 23 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Desmyn Baker | 472 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Travares Springer | 273 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Amaan Smith | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Abdul Lateef-Audu | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Upton Stout | 418 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Kendrick Simpkins | 723 snaps | Transfer portal

There are conflicting reports surrounding WKU about who is – and who is not – playing in this game. WKU HC Tyson Helton isn’t helping with that. He played coy in the week lead-in to this game, saying all players who’ve entered the portal “could” play.

One surprise addition previously thought out? WR1 Malachi Corley (540 snaps), who has declared for the NFL Draft, said in a Bowling Green Daily News story on Dec. 15 that he intends to play in this game, stating: “My brother and my trainer don’t want me to play in this game. I feel like the scouts, the people that are in charge of the bowls, they also feel like I don’t play in this game as well. They feel like I have nothing to prove. But for myself, I feel like I have everything to prove.”

Corley is a likely Day 2 pick in April. “This week will maybe give me a chance to open up my route tree,” Corley said. “Even if it’s just one play during the game that’s something they haven’t got to see, if I don’t play in this game then I don’t get that opportunity.” Assuming he goes through with playing, this is a huge development for WKU. Corley’s 2.8 YPRR was one full yard higher than the team’s next-highest pass-catcher, regardless of position or snap count. Last year, he led the FBS in yards after the catch.

QB1 Austin Reed pounded Corley with targets whenever Corley was on the field this fall. Corley’s 31.6% target-per-route rate was amongst the highest in the nation, and Corley finished with 50 more targets than anyone else on the team. Corley is a Day 2 NFL Draft prospect.

But whereas it appears Corley will be active, QB1 Reed, per a report from Action Network’s Brett McMurphy on Dec. 16, isn’t going to play. This, too, is a late surprise. Reed entered the portal and opted-out of last year’s bowl, only to have a late change-of-heart, returning to the team and playing in the game. Reed, out of eligibility and heading to the NFL Draft process, appears to have had changed his mind in the opposite direction this time around. That’s a brutal turn of events for WKU, a team that has a top-5 pass rate in the FBS. Reed accounted for 3,340 passing yards and 39 total TD this fall. He threw for over 8,000 yards over two seasons at WKU.

If Reed is indeed out, WKU will turn to QB2 Turner Helton, the nephew of HC Tyson Helton, and the son of Georgia Southern HC Clay Helton. Turner Helton is a redshirt freshman. And mostly an unknown. ESPN called him a three-star recruit, Rivals called him a two-star, while both On3 and 247Sports gave him zero stars. Turner Helton has taken a mere 25 snaps in his career. He is 8-for-8 passing in his career attempts, all coming during garbage time against FCS Houston Christian and FIU earlier this season.

Turner Helton will have the services of Corley on Monday – that’s big. But he’s going to be playing behind mostly the second-string offensive line that he practiced with this fall.

Perhaps the anticipated defections of starting offensive linemen LG1 Leslie, C1 Murphy, and RT1 Dorsey contributed to QB1 Austin Reed’s decision to (reportedly) skip this game. Though HC Tyson Helton claims they could play, I have heard otherwise – barring late changes-of-heart from guys who haven’t been at bowl practice, WKU’s OL will be decimated in this game.

I actually don’t think Dorsey’s loss, in a vacuum, hurts much. By margin he allowed the highest pressure rate of the starters, as well the most havoc of the group, and had the highest blown-block percentage of the group.

Additionally, WKU’s two-other top tackles each took more than 425 snaps. OT Marshall Jackson, the team’s second-worst offensive lineman per snap by the numbers, is almost assuredly going to get the RT assignment here – since he’s replacing the worst, let’s call it a wash. This would keep LT Mark Goode at LT (Goode and Jackson divied-up the LT snaps this year, while Jackson was the only other OL on the roster to log snaps at RT outside of Dorsey). Your OT depth is officially shot, but if the Hilltoppers can survive this game without an injury to either active OT, they should get roughly the same OT play as they did during the regular season.

The interior OL is another story. Murphy and Leslie were two of the team’s most assignment-sound pass blockers, combining for zero sacks allowed while posting miniscule blown-block percentages. WKU only had two other backup OL who took snaps this year that I haven’t mentioned yet – iOLs Colten Cable and Evan Wibberley. Each had troubling blown-block numbers in a small sample. Of Cable’s 97 pass-pro reps, six times Cable’s man got a hurry that directly led to an incompletion or interception. Per-snap, he’s the team’s worst run-blocker. Its second-worst is Wibberley (44 snaps), who wasn’t much better in pass-pro over his small sample – matching Dorsey’s 5.6% pressure rate allowed.

Unfortunately, we’re not quite done yet. LB Baker was the team’s best run defender and its leading tackler. CB Stout led the team’s defenders in both havoc percentage and forced incompletion percentage (with an absurd 35.0% — nobody else had even 18.5%). Stout was knocked out for the year at the mid-way point of the regular season… so at least WKU is used to playing with him. The highest-ranked SP+ team that WKU beat after Stout went down was 3-9 Sam Houston. Reportedly, Michigan and USC are in the lead for his services.

S Simpkins, a second-team All-CUSA pick, was WKUs moveable chess piece on defense. He had 111 snaps or more as a free safety, nickel defender, box linebacker, and lined up off the EDGE. Simpkins was a destructive force when sent after the quarterback, piling up nine sacks and 24 pressures in only 93 pass rushes. Simpkins was also solid in coverage, holding opponents to a career 45.5% reception percentage on targets.

Injury news: EDGE JaQues Evans (328 snaps), the CUSA Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, was lost for the season in October to a lower-leg injury. Last year, Evans posted 106 tackles, 14 TFL, nine sacks, four breakups, eight hurries and two fumble recoveries en route to first-team All-CUSA honors. WR Michael Mathison (0 snaps), an expected contributor, was lost for the season in camp to a hip injury.

UTSA vs. Marshall

UTSA vs. Marshall Live Spread, Total & Moneyline Odds

Frisco Bowl | Frisco, TX

Tuesday, December 19 | 9:00p | ESPN

Total: 51.5

ATL: UTSA -10.9 | ATT: 53.5

UTSA Roadrunners

• EDGE Trey Moore | 502 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Xavier Spencer | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Syrus Dumas | 56 snaps | Transfer portal

The only one that matters here is speed-rushing OLB Moore. But he matters quite a bit. Moore went ballistic this year, posting 14 sacks and 16.5 TFL en route to AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors. Moore’s 6.1% sack percentage and 40 pressures both nearly doubled-up the next-highest finisher on the team. Moore had eight sacks last fall. He is being rabidly pursued by numerous Power 5 programs.

Injury news: UTSA was counting on WR De’Corian Clark following the transfer-portal loss of WR Zahkari Franklin to Ole Miss in the offseason. But Clark ended up missing the entire campaign with a torn ACL. WR Joshua Cephus will continue to get pounded with targets in the bowl game. The Road Runners have two other solid WRs in Devin McCuin and Tykee Ogle-Kellogg. But neither are difference-makers, and UTSA has very little depth behind them. There were heavy rumors in the 24-hour lead-up to this game that QB1 Frank Harris is less than 100-percent healthy. Harris’ status for this game

Coaching News: HC Jeff Traylor is staying at UTSA after interviewing for multiple HC jobs.

Marshall Thundering Herd

• QB Cam Fancher | 692 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Maurice Jones | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Caleb Coombs | 338 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Zion Odoms | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Sean Sallis | 63 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Trent Holler | 725 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jayven Hall | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Fancher was a turnover-machine who put a glass ceiling on the offense’s viability weekly via accuracy and decision-making issues. I assume his transfer was precipitated by a meeting with the coach’s following the regular season in which he was told the team was going to sign a starting QB in the portal. But Fancher did provide a dollop of rushing utility. QB2 Cole Pennington, who will get the call here, is by degrees worse. Pennington got a shot during the regular season but posted a cover-your-eyes 0/6 TD/INT rate with an inept 1.7 ANY/A while providing negative rushing utility.

Coombs was the team’s top receiver, targeted on six-more percent of his routes than any other Marshall receiver. It’s tempting to say that his loss won’t matter, since Pennington will himself throttle the Herd’s aerial viability. However, Coombs is a manufactured-touch slot receiver who got the high-percentage, quick-hit concepts to chip away at the sticks. Pennington would have used him.

LG1 Holler was the team’s best interior pass-blocker, but probably it’s least-effective run blocker. OG ​​Altrique Barlow, likely to replace him, is certainly a downgrade, though Barlow is at least experienced after playing 222 snaps at LG this fall.

Other opt-out news:Per a report from 247Sports’ Brandon Marcello on Dec. 14, RB1 Rasheen Ali is expected to play. Ali participated in bowl practices and traveled with the team to this game.

Injury news: TE1 Cade Conley has been out since late-October with an undisclosed injury and is questionable for the bowl game. S1 JJ Roberts is questionable with his own undisclosed injury that wiped-out his final two games.

Coaching News: Marshall shook up the staff after the regular season. The Herd fired OC Clint Trickett following a sag to No. 87 in total offense. The Thundering Herd hired Purdue TE coach Seth Doege to take over the offense. Marshall also fired WR coach Jovon Bouknight, OL coach Bill Legg, and LB coach Shannon Morrison. In Marshall’s season finale against Arkansas State, HC Charles Huff was the play-caller. That venture was a success. The assumption is that Huff is going to be pulling double-duty again.

Syracuse vs. South Florida

Boca Raton Bowl | Boca Raton, FL

Thursday, December 21 | 8:00p | ESPN

Total: 57.0

ATL: USF -2.2 | ATT: 52.1

Syracuse Orange

• QB Garrett Shrader | 583 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Jakobie Seabourn | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Leon Lowery | 523 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Francois Nolton Jr. | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Terry Lockett | 480 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Aman Greenwood | 113 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Malcolm Fox | 8 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Garrett Shrader was ruled out for this game on Dec. 18 after undergoing shoulder surgery. Out of collegiate eligibility, this news means Master Shrader has already played his final collegiate game. More topically to the issue at hand, this is ominous news for Syracuse. Especially with QB2 Carlos Del Rio-Wilson already ruled out with undisclosed lower-body injury.

Del Rio-Wilson is a confirmed sub-replacement-level option. Here’s the problem. TE Dan Villari appears to be in line for another start as Wildcat QB. This is what Syracuse did in Week 12 against Georgia Tech, a 31-22 loss for the Orange. In that game, Syracuse did rush for 206 yards. But the Orange managed only 53 yards through the air, with 8-of-the-team’s-15 completions straightforward dump-offs to RB LeQuint Allen.

EDGE Lowery, a pass-rushing OLB, finished No. 3 on the team with seven TFL and tied for No. 3 with 3.5 sacks during the regular season. But he was more disruptive as a pass-rusher than his raw stats indicate. Lowery led the team in pressures despite being No. 4 in pass-rushing reps. His 12.0% pressure rate was 2.5% higher than any other defender on the team who had at least 90 pass-rushing reps.

DL Lockett was the team’s second-best run-defender along the defensive front. He likely wasn’t going to play in this game anyway following a late-season injury.

Injury news: One wonders if HC Dino Babers realized, following the season-ending Week 1 Lisfranc injury to star WR/TE (“big slot”) Oronde Gadsden, that his days were numbered. Gadsden was one of college football’s biggest matchup nightmares. Syracuse’s passing game began circling the toilet bowl the moment Gadsden went down.

WR1 Damien Alford (614 snaps) is questionable with a shoulder injury. He had only one catch for 12 yards in the game against GT that Villari previously started at QB.

The team was already thin on TE depth after TE Steven Mahar was lost for the season in training camp to a torn ACL – Mahar was a special-teamer who would have seen more offensive snaps following Gadsden’s injury.

LG Kalen Elliss is also OFY with a Lisfranc injury. A nine-game starter last year, Ellis was limited to one appearance (against Clemson) this fall. That news particularly hurt after Kentucky transfer David Wohlabaugh Jr., who won the starting RT job, was knocked out for the year in early-September.

Coaching News: Nunzio Campanile will serve as interim HC for the bowl in place of Babers. Campanile, Syracuse’s TE coach during the regular season, was interim HC at Rutgers in 2019 for the final eight games. New Syracuse HC Fran Brown, the former Georgia DB coach, has been busy assembling a new staff. None of those new staffers will coach in this game. Instead, the Orange are piecing it together with an in-house makeshift bowl staff.

South Florida Bulls

• QB Gerry Bohanan | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Zach Perkins | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Lloyd Summerall | 305 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Will Jones | 169 snaps | Transfer portal

QB Bohanan and S Jones were both 2022 starters who fell out of favor with the new staff. EDGE Summerall is the biggest loss. But the team played without him over the last three games after he left to start his transfer process. USF went 2-1 in those three games to become bowl-eligible.

Injury news: LG1 Andrew Kilfoyl and RG1 Zane Herring are both questionable with undisclosed injuries suffered in late-November. Herring was USF’s No. 2-graded OL this fall. Backup OGs Cole Skinner and Cole Best both proved to be downgrades when they saw the field this fall.

UCF vs. Georgia Tech

Gasparilla Bowl | Tampa, FL

Friday, December 22 | 6:30p | ESPN

Total: 66.5

ATL: UCF -5.1 | ATT: 71.3

UCF Knights

• RB Jordan McDonald | 20 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jaylon Griffin | 47 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Taylor Griffin | 10 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Amari Johnson | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Drake Metcalf | 213 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT Kervins Choute | 77 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE KD McDaniel | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Dallaz Corbitt | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Fred Davis | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Corey Thornton | 667 snaps | Transfer portal

UCF is more or less intact for this game. Except for the secondary. Unfortunately, we’ve got ourselves a problematic situation back there between injuries and opt-outs.

UCF’s 3-3-5 uses five regular defensive backs. The good news about that is there’s a wave of bodies on the depth chart. A large handful of whom have some level of experience. The bad news is that multiple key contributors that unit are either confirmed out (see injury section below) or presumed out.

The projected CB2 for this game, Decorian Patterson, struggled over his 368 snaps, posting a 60.8 PFF grade. The depth behind him is grisly. Beyond that, two of the projected starting safeties couldn’t crack a 62.0 PFF grade during their field time this year. Safety depth is likewise a problematic area for this game.

UCF may be able to get by in this game with their depleted secondary – but the Knights absolutely cannot afford any injuries at this position during the game. If Georgia Tech is smart, they’re going to be targeting that secondary anyway – and figure to be ready to mercilessly pick on any greenhorn injury replacement that could enter this game.

Other opt-out news: WR Chauncey Magwood, a transfer from Kentucky, shut it down after his fourth-game played this fall to take a redshirt. The backup receiver posted four catches for 40 yards before turning the page to 2024.

Injury news:S DeJordan Mask (153 Snaps/5 starts) and CB Ja’Cari Henderson (190 snaps/6 games) are both out for the year with injuries. DB Jireh Wilson (447 snaps/5 starts) missed the season finale against Houston, while nickel defender Braden Marshall (257 snaps/2 starts) departed after just two snaps. Quadric Bullard took over slot duties from Marshall last game and posted a poor 56.9 PFF game grade. S Nikai Martinez kicked to SS in place of Wilson versus Houston but continued struggling at that post, logging a 55.6 game grade from PFF with three missed tackles and a 50% tackle rate.

Coaching News: HC Gus Malzahn recently inked a four-year contract extension. He is 4-5 ATS in nine career bowl games.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

• RB Jamie Felix | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jullian Lewis | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Wing Green | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Kyle Kennard | 534 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Kenan Johnson | 521 snaps | Transfer portal

EDGE Kennard and CB Johnson were both above-average starters, and Georgia Tech’s leaders at their respective positions in PFF grading. The Yellow Jackets have the corner depth to replace Johnson without a noticeable drop-off. But Georgia Tech has precious little depth on the EDGE, making Kennard’s opt-out an unfortunate turn of events.

Injury news: EDGE Sylvain Yondjouen (27 snaps) was lost for the season in the opener against Louisville with a torn ACL.

Coaching News: S coach Andrew Thacker and DB coach Travares Tillman were each transitioned into off-field roles. HC Brent Key is shaking up the defensive staff after the Yellowjackets allowed 32 PPG (No. 105) and 6.3 yards per play (No. 117).

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

Camellia Bowl | Montgomery, AL

Saturday, December 23 | 12:00p | ESPN

Total: 53.5

ATL: NIU -0.7 | ATT: 52.9

Arkansas State Red Wolves

• QB Christians Hunt | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB “Iron” Mike Sharpe II | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Ashtin Rustemeyer | 104 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Kadan Lewis | 235 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Javante Mackey | 739 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jordan Clark | 631 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Taylon Doss | 8 snaps | Transfer portal

A part-time rotational three-tech defensive lineman, Lewis (6’1/248) is undersized for interior work but still managed a respectable 60.4 PFF defensive grade in 235 snaps during his first season of collegiate football. Mackey is a quality all-around linebacker who posted 38 stops in addition to logging 172 snaps in the slot to take advantage of his ability to move in space, as is evidenced by his 75.6 PFF coverage grade. He will be replaced in the starting lineup by junior LB Dane Motley, who logged 211 snaps while grading out above average in coverage (76.7 PFF cover grade) and tackling (75.2 tackle grade). Rustmeyer earned one start before falling out of the defensive line rotation and going down for the season in Week 8. His ghastly 75% missed tackle rate led to a woeful 47.7 PFF defensive grade, with his production being easily replicated in the lineup.

Injury news: TE Emmanuel Stevenson, lost to a season-ending injury in Week 9, caught 18-of-28 passes for a 64% catch rate, 129 yards and two touchdowns while starting nine games before going down. Starting C Jacob Bayer started 11 games, allowing just one sack in 697 snaps, but missed ASU’s last game against Marshall. RB2 Zak Wallace (122 Rush/555 yards/6 TDs) also had to sit out versus Marshall. Bayer is back practicing and is likely going to suit up, while Wallace is hoping to play in the bowl.

Coaching News: HC Butch Jones extinguished hot seat rumors by achieving bowl eligibility. He has been loosely connected to a few open G5 coach openings in recent weeks but will be on the sidelines for this game. Jones is 4-0 SU and ATS in his last-four bowl games (6-1-1 ATS career). The past four all went over the total.

Northern Illinois Huskies

• WR Trey Urwiler | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Bryce Harrison | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Pete Nygra | 772 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Greg Gumbs | 430 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Devin Lafayette | 284 snaps | Transfer portal
• S CJ Brown | 144 snaps | Transfer portal

C Nygra has recorded over 750 snaps in each of the last two campaigns, earning a laudable 75.7 pass block grade by allowing just two QB hits and 0 sacks in 2023. Veteran IOL Logan Zschernitz steps into the vacated starting center role having played 2,411 snaps over his five year career, but was injured for the first nine games of this season, returning in Week 11 to play 88 snaps at RG while earning a 73.2 pass block grade. Zschernitz is a very suitable replacement after spending 2021 and 2022 as a starter at guard. Edge Gumbs started the last seven games, generating 17 pressures and 16 stops despite a troubling 47.2 tackling grade. Sophomore Edge Roy Williams now moves into the starting lineup after logging 309 snaps with 15 pressures and 3.5 sacks in a reserve role, so there should be very little dropoff at the position. Lafayette is an aggressive box safety who performed well as a sub package defender early in the year before falling down the depth chart down the stretch. His 67.5 defensive grade is bolstered by an excellent 84.7 tackling grade, with his departure leaving the NIU back line relatively thin behind the starters, as fellow reserve safety CJ Brown is also in the portal.

Other opt-out news: Star WR Trayvon Rudolph withdrew his name from the transfer portal and should play in the bowl game now that he’s back with the program.

Injury news: Potent slot WR Kacper Rutkiewicz (21-319-2 line in 2023) went down for the year in Week 6, while starting outside WR Davis Patterson (16 recs/195 yards) hasn’t played since Week 11. Rudolph’s portal return is a major boost for the Huskies’ paper-thin receiving corps.

Coaching News: HC Thomas Hammock lost the only bowl game he’s coached in – the 2021 Cure Bowl against Coastal Carolina – but the Huskies stayed within the number to cover.

Troy vs. Duke

Birmingham Bowl | Birmingham, AL

Saturday, December 23 | 12:00p | ABC

Total: 44.5

ATL: Troy -3.5 | ATT: 50.0

Troy Trojans

• iOL Kobe Williams | 23 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Jeremiah Frazier | 10 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Javon Solomon | 545 snaps | NFL Draft
• LB Jayden McDonald | 533 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Darrell Starling Jr. | 31 snaps | Transfer portal

EDGE Javon Solomon declared for the NFL Draft. He will be sorely missed by the Trojans. Troy’s best defender, Solomon was a havoc-creator who tallied 42 pressures with a superb 89.3 PFF pass rush grade this year.

LB McDonald was the team’s best second-level defender. There will be big drop-offs from Solomon and McDonald to their backups. If there’s a silver-lining, it’s that Troy has avoided high-profile opt-outs outside of those two.

Coaching News:Troy HC Jon Sumrall, the two-time SBC-champion, left to take the same position at Tulane after going 23-4 in two seasons for the Trojans. DC Greg Gasparato is running the team as interim HC in the bowl game.

Duke Blue Devils

• QB Riley Leonard | 381 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Jordan Waters | 345 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Graham Barton | 496 snaps | NFL Draft
• DT Aeneas Peebles | 443 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE RJ Oben | 404 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Dorian Mausi | 387 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jaden Watkins | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Brandon Johnson | 745 snaps | Transfer portal
• S/KR Jaylen Stinson | 767 snaps | Transfer portal

Freshman QB3 Grayson Loftis has started the last four games following QB1 Riley Leonard’s season-ending ankle injury and QB2 Henry Belin’s upper-body injury. Indications point to Loftis drawing another start. Leonard is out of the building after committing to Notre Dame in the portal.

The defection of RB Jordan Waters hurts. But Duke is covered at RB for this game following the news that fellow committee back RB Jacquez Moore (301 snaps) had pulled his name out of the portal and returned to the team.

OT Graham Barton was far and away the team’s best OL. He is a likely Day 2 pick in April.

DT Aeneas Peebles was the team’s highest-graded PFF defender who played at least 200 snaps. Fellow started EDGE RJ Oben is following Leonard to Notre Dame in the portal. LB Mausi’s loss will be easier to compensate for.

Duke is going to be very thin in the secondary in this game. Two starters are extremely iffy with injuries (see below), while two others are transferring out. The Blue Devils will have two above-average starters back there with experience in CB Chandler Rivers and S Jeremiah Lewis. After that, question marks.

Injury news: C Scott Elliott (428 snaps/6 starts) hasn’t played since getting injured in Week 11 against UNC. CB1 Myles Jones has been out since October with a hamstring injury. Jones, along with starting S Terry Moore – who missed Week 12 and played just seven snaps in Week 13 against Pitt – should both be considered questionable for this game.

Coaching News:Texas A&M hired Duke HC Mike Elko, who took over a 3-9 team and went 16-9 in two years with the Blue Devils. The interim HC is Trooper Taylor, however it is being reported by footballscoop.com that Taylor will be joining the Texas A&M staff and reuniting with HC Elko in College Station once his bowl obligation is complete. It’s fair to speculate just how invested Taylor will be in the team’s bowl success given the circumstances. Elko is also bringing OL coach Adam Cushing and CB coach Ishmael Aristide to College Station. Former Miami DC Manny Diaz will take over as Duke’s HC following the bowl game.

Georgia State vs. Utah State

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Boise, ID

Saturday, December 23 | 3:30p | ESPN

Total: 62.5

ATL: GSU -2.0 | ATT: 72.7

Georgia State Panthers

• RB Marcus Carroll | 710 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB KZ Adams | 82 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Jaquan Dixon | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Robert Lewis | 759 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Rico Arnold | 45 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Montavious Cunningham | 743 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jalen Tate | 122 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jordan Jones | 25 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Bryquice Brown | 566 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Tony McCray | 68 snaps | Transfer portal

The Panthers are dealing with multiple, impact transfers on both sides of the ball which will force second-teamers to play heavy minutes against the Aggies.

Georgia State’s bell cow RB Marcus Carroll has already committed to taking over for RB Cody Schrader as the lead rusher in the Missouri backfield. The seventh-leading rusher in the FBS, Carroll carried the ball 271 times (3rd in FBS) for 1,345 rushing yards to go with securing 24-of-30 targets for 284 receiving yards. Unfortunately the Panthers’ RB2, KZ Adams, is in the portal as well, leaving RB Freddie Brock as the most experienced GSU rusher with six carries for 28 yards this season.

WR1 Robert Lewis is also headed out of town, with WR Cadarrius Thompson expected to step up on the outside in his absence. Lewis and Thompson were the only two boundary wideouts to record a snap in GSU’s Week 13 contest against Old Dominion, so the depth chart is inexperienced behind them.

RT Montavious Cunningham started every game at RT with the exception of Week 13, earning a strong 75.7 pass block grade with two sacks and 16 pressures allowed in 360 pass reps. OT Ben Chukwuma will again start in Cunningham’s spot, having played 77 reps and allowing zero pressures in 36 pass snaps versus ODU in Week 13.

CB1 Bryquice Brown started nine games, allowing a 59% completion rate, 447 yards and six touchdowns in coverage this year while earning a middling 63.6 overall defensive grade. Slot corner Ronald Cooper allowed a 76% completion rate with an unsightly 42.7 coverage grade, so CB Izaiah Guy (291 snaps/53% completion rate/75.0 defensive grade) will draw the start in Brown’s absence.

Coaching News: HC Shawn Elliot is a career 3-1 ATS in bowl games. Georgia State opened the season 6-1 before cratering in the second half by going 0-5 to close out the 2023 campaign.

Utah State Aggies

• DL Adam Tomczyk | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Devin Dye | 627 snaps | Transfer portal

Starting SS Devin Dye was a fixture on the Utah State back line this season, racking up 81 tackles with seven PBU and two interceptions while starting every game. He will be replaced in the lineup by promising second-year Colorado transfer Simeon Harris, who logged 497 reps with a respectable 65.0 PFF defensive grade.

Injury news: Starting CB Avante Dickerson sat out the season finale versus New Mexico and was replaced in the lineup by CB JD Drew. Dickerson has a strong 71.3 PFF cover grade and has allowed just a 40% completion rate, while his understudy Drew has come of age over the last three games, allowing just three receptions for a miniscule 14 yards.

Coaching News: HC Blake Anderson is a career 3-5 ATS in bowl games. The Aggies went 3-1 SU down the stretch to secure bowl eligibility. Utah State plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the country.

James Madison vs. Air Force

Armed Forces Bowl | Fort Worth, TX

Saturday, December 23 | 3:30p | ABC

Total: 41 

ATL: James Madison -4.1 | ATT: 44.9

James Madison Dukes

• QB Jordan McCloud | 425 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Tyler Stephens | 816 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Ty Son Lawton | 165 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Mikail Kamara | 680 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL James Carpenter | 736 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Aiden Fisher | 741 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jalin Walker | 432 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Taurus Jones | 236 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Chauncey Logan | 236 snaps | Transfer portal

Other opt-out news: QB Jordan McCloud (3,400 yards and 32 TD) will play in the bowl despite being in the portal. There are also some reports saying that most of the players who are in the portal will be playing in the bowl game. But this is a fluid situation that bears monitoring all the way up until kickoff.

Injury news: DE Jalen Green posted 15.5 sacks and 53 pressures in 9.5 games, but the game-wrecker suffered a season-ending knee injury in November. LT Tyshawn Wyatt was lost for the season a few weeks ago, causing OT Tyler Stephens to slide over to the left side from RT. Hopefully Stephens is one of the portal players that plans to play in the bowl game, otherwise there could be some issues on the blind side for McCloud.

Coaching News: JMU HC Curt Cignetti is taking over at Indiana following a 52-9 run. JMU OC Mike Shanahan (no relation to the former NFL HC) and DC Bryant Haines are joining him. The Dukes announced that OL coach and assistant HC Damian Wroblewski will be interim HC in the bowl game. JMU will have to rejigger the staff around Wroblewski for this game. “This is an all-hands on deck situation,” Wroblewski said. This is JMU’s first-ever bowl game. Afterwards, former Holy Cross HC Bob Chesney will take over the program.

Air Force Falcons

• RB John Lee Eldridge | 563 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Aidan Behmyer | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

Eldridge, the team’s starting halfback, had 547 yds and six TD this fall. His defection is going to lead to continued work for RB Dylan Carson, who wasn’t used much in September and October, but who received 33-or-more snaps in the last three regular season games. On a per-snap basis, Carson was actually better than Eldridge this season.

The Falcons’ leading rusher is FB Emmanuel Michel — active for this game — with 733 yards. Air Force runs the ball on 86.8% of its offensive snaps and ranks No. 2  in the FBS with 275.8 rush yards per game.

Injury news: Air Force is not committing to the availability of QB Zac Larrier and WRs Dane Kinamon and Jared Roznos for the bowl game quite yet. Larrier, initially thought to be potentially out for the season, played through injury down the stretch, clearly compromised – in part explaining Air Force’s four-game skid down the stretch after an 8-0 start. “Optimistically, I think there’s a chance [those three could return for the bowl game],” Air Force HC Troy Calhoun said. Starting CB Jerome Gaillard Jr. (340 snaps/8 starts) has missed the last four games and has been replaced in the lineup by Trey Williams who sports a woeful 53.9 PFF cover grade and has allowed 13 completions on 18 targets since entering the starting lineup.

Coaching News: HC Troy Calhoun is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in his last 10 bowl games (8-4 ATS career). HC Calhoun interviewed for the vacant Tulane head coaching position this offseason, but the job went to Troy HC Jon Sumrall. This year’s Air Force roster has more players from the state of Texas (16) than any other state.

South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan

68 Ventures Bowl | Mobile, AL

Saturday, December 23 | 7:00p | ESPN

Total: 47.0

ATL: South Alabama -14.2 | ATT: 46.2

South Alabama Jaguars

• RB La’Damian Webb | 406 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Caulin Lacy | 751 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge | 25 snaps | Transfer portal

RB1 Webb’s toe injury meant he wouldn’t have played in this game anyway, but he made it official by declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft in early-December. Webb topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons. His absence opens the door for another game of bellcow work for RB2 Braylon McReynolds. McReynolds turned 18 carries into 90 yards (5.0 YPC) and caught six-of-six targets for 70 yards in Week 13 versus Texas State.

WR1 Caullin Lacy was one of the elite G5 wide receivers in the country, amassing 91 receptions, a 76.5% catch rate, 1,305 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with an 83.8 PFF receiving grade. Wideouts Javon Ivory and Jamaal Pritchett will pick up the slack in his absence.

Injury news: QB1 Carter Bradley has battled a knee injury over the second half of the season and left the Jaguars’ final game against Texas State after reaggravating the injury. He should be considered very questionable to play and would be replaced by former starter QB2 Desmond Trotter, who is an experienced signal caller that went 18-for-21 for 216 yards and four TD passes in relief of Bradley in Week 13. LT1 Jordan Davis was unable to suit up in the season finale. Davis’ status for this game is unknown.

Coaching News: HC Kane Wommack is 0-1 SU and ATS in bowl games. South Alabama got walloped by Western Kentucky 44-23 last year as four-point favorites.

Eastern Michigan Eagles

• QB Austin Smith | 707 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Andreas Paaske | 168 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Zack Conti | 281 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Mikah Coleman | 445 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Alex Merritt | 281 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Austin Smith is in the portal, if he does not opt to play then QB Ike Udengwu would handle snaps under center. Udengwu completed 13-of-28 passes for a 46% completion rate, 99 yards and a 0-to-2 TD/INT ratio during his brief exposure to the field this season. Udengwu carries a dual-threat skillset, but his 33.9 passing grade doesn’t give much hope for a prolific aerial performance out of Udengwu.

Coaching News: HC Chris Creighton, one of the nation’s most underrated coaches, is 4-1 ATS in bowl games.

Utah vs. Northwestern

Las Vegas Bowl | Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 23 | 7:30p | ABC

Total: 41.5

ATL: Utah -12.1 | ATT: 46.6

Utah Utes

• QB Nate Johnson | 249 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Devaughn Vele | 669 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Mikey Matthews | 460 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Makai Cope | 121 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Hayden Erickson | 8 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Justin Medlock | 42 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Owen Chambliss | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB JaTravis Broughton | 482 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Faybian Marks | 28 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Bleu Stewart | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jadon Pearson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Cole Bishop | 587 snaps | NFL Draft

Other opt-out news: QB1 Bryson Barnes (540 snaps) is in the transfer portal, but he announced that he will play in this game.

Injury news: QB1 Cam Rising and TE1 Brant Kuithe were each ruled OFY without having played a 2023 snap in October – they will return in 2024.

Backup rotational RBs Micah Bernard (31 snaps) and Chris Curry (21 snaps) each suffered season-ending injuries long ago. Fortunately, stud RB1 Ja’Quinden Jackson is healthy.

Australian Rules Football standout TE Thomas Yassmin (236 snaps) lasted just five games before being ruled out for the season. He recorded 89 receiving yards before going down. WR Mycah Pittman (17 snaps) was lost for the season following a Week 2 injury.

EDGE Logan Fano (203 snaps) had a 75.2 PFF pass rush grade with 12 pressures and eight stops through around the midpoint of Game 5 before succumbing to a season-ending ACL tear. Unfortunately, the starter on the other side, star EDGE Jonah Elliss (573 snaps), was ruled out for the season in late-November. Heading into the weekend he suffered his injury, Elliss was No. 1 in the P5 with 12 sacks and tied for No. 5 in the FBS with 16 TFL.

Stud WLB1 Lander Barton (403 snaps) started eight games and earned an exceptional 82.5 PFF cover grade before going down for the year. Softening the sting somewhat was the strong performance Utah got from Barton’s fill-in LB Levani Damuni. Damuni has proven to be a stout run defender, accruing 33 stops on a strong 9.0% missed tackle rate.

Coaching News: HC Kyle Whittingham is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in his last four bowl games after a torrid 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS stretch in the 11 prior to that. He’s a career 10-6 ATS in bowls.

Northwestern Wildcats

• QB Cole Freeman | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Matt Lawson | 16 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Nigel Williams | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• LG Josh Priebe | 764 snaps | Transfer portal

Other opt-out news: LG Priebe started every game for Northwestern this year, and has logged 1,785 snaps over four years with the Wildcats.  He allowed four sacks and 17 pressures this season, but had a disappointing performance in Week 13 against Illinois and their monster IDL Jer’Zhan Newton. Priebe gave up four QB hits and drew a holding penalty, which is relevant since he only allowed two other QB hits all season.

Injury news: Starting SS Coco Azema was injured in the first half of Northwestern’s Week 11 tilt against Wisconsin and was forced to miss the last two games of the year. The fifth-year defensive back started four games and recorded a 62.8 PFF defensive grade through 10 contests and is supposedly trending towards playing against the Utes.

Coaching News: In November, Northwestern rewarded David Braun by removing his interim tag and making him the permanent HC. The Wildcats wildly exceeded expectations after Braun was elevated just prior to the regular season to replace former HC Pat Fitzgerald, who was fired following a hazing scandal.

San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina

Hawai’i Bowl | Honolulu, HI

Saturday, December 23 | 10:30p | ESPN

Total: 53.5

ATL: SJSU -5.3 | ATT: 51.5

San Jose State Spartans

• WR Branden Alvarez | 82 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Dominick Mazotti | 518 snaps | Transfer portal
• LT Fernando Carmona | 765 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Elijah Wood | 343 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Anthony Madrigal | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

Fifth-year TE Mazotti caught 23-of-36 targets for a 64% catch rate, 322 yards, two touchdowns and a 1.21 yards per route average.

LT1 Carmona has been a highly sought after lineman in the portal, taking a visit to UCLA in early December and having been contacted by Ohio State. Carmona has started every game for the last two seasons at LT for the Spartans, spanning 1,574 snaps with the 6’5/325 behemoth boasting an 81.5 overall grade from PFF this year.

LB Wood played 343 defensive snaps last year, but fell out of the rotation after starting the Week 0 loss to USC and missing three-of-four tackle opportunities. He played a total of 16 defensive snaps from that point forward, so the writing was on the wall here for Wood’s departure.

Coaching News: HC Brent Brennan is 0-2 ATS in two career bowl games.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

• QB Grayson McCall | 471 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Jarrett Guest | 121 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB CJ Beasley | 246 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Cole Freeman | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jared Brown | 547 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Dami’on Thompson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tyson Mobley | 211 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Chris Rohne | 1 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Mason Bowers | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Donnell Wilson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Cole Freeman | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Trey Pinkey | 68 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB JT Kilien | 563 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Bailey Carrawat | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Laurence Sullivan | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jacob Proche | 28 snaps | Transfer portal
• DB Jahmar Brown | 36 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Eli Hillman | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Kaleb Hutchinson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

Some portal players may still play in the bowl game, according to HC Tim Beck.

QB1 Grayson McCall is already committed to NC State and QB2 Jarrett Guest is also on his way out of town, so third-string QB Ethan Vasko will make his fourth start of the season. So far dual-threat QB Vasko has completed 56-of-89 passes for 574 yards and a 4/1 TD/INT ratio and a sparkling 87.2 PFF overall grade. Vasko have proven not to be the QB1-to-QB3 downgrade you generally see.

WR Jared Brown amassed 1,531 receiving yards, a 69.4% catch rate and 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons, peaking this year with a rock solid 80.6 PFF overall grade. WRs Sam Pinckney and Jameson Tucker will draw even more targets in his absence, with WR Kyre Duplessis likely sliding into the starting slot role vacated by Brown.

MLB JT Killen is a fifth-year player/two-year starter whose play slipped a little bit this season, as is evidenced by his 22.4% missed tackle rate and 57.0 overall PFF defensive grade.

Injury news: Slot CB Juan Powell got banged up in Week 11 against Texas State and has not played in CCU’s last two games. The battle-tested fifth-year defender owns a commendable 76.2 PFF tackling grade this year and has allowed a career completion rate of 64.7%.

Coaching News: This will be HC Tim Beck’s first bowl game.

Minnesota vs. Bowling Green

Quick Lane Bowl | Detroit, MI

Tuesday, December 26 | 2:00p | ESPN

Total: 39.5 | ATL: Minnesota -4.1 | ATT: 39.4

Minnesota Golden Gophers

• QB Athan Kaliakmanis | 773 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Drew Viotto | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Zach Evans | 89 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Max Grand | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Marquese Williams | 68 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Tyrell Lawrence | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT JJ Guedet | 54 snaps | Transfer portal

The transition from Tanner Morgan-to-Athan Kaliakmanis was an accepted failure, with QB1 Kaliakmanis entering the transfer portal earlier this month. Gophers HC PJ Fleck announced that fifth-year QB2 Cole Kramer will draw the start in his place. Kramer has attempted a mere 14 career passes, accruing 103 passing yards and a 2/2 TD/INT rate. Since QB3 Drew Viotto has already left for Eastern Michigan, the Gophers’ backup in this game will be true freshman walk-on QB4 Max Shikenjanski. Minnesota has no other active QB on the roster.

Other opt-out news: Star S Tyler Nubin is an elite defender who owns a sensational 90.3 PFF defensive grade and 90.7 cover grade this season. He allowed a microscopic 5-of-19 targets to be completed for just 44 receiving yards all season. A top-50 NFL Draft prospect, Nabin should probably turn the page to NFL Combine training.

Injury news: Freshman RB Darius Taylor received one carry in Minnesota’s Week 1 contest vs. Nebraska then proceeded to rip off three-straight games with at least 138+ yards and a touchdown before getting injured in Week 4 at Northwestern. He returned Week 8 at Iowa, rushing 16 times for 59 yards, but was reinjured and missed the remainder of the regular season. His presence in the lineup would be a major difference maker for the Gophers’ listless offense that ranks 121st in EPA/Play. I can report that while Taylor hasn’t been cleared to return as of this writing, he fully intends to play assuming he is – and the anticipation is that he will be in advance of this game. This game is being played in Taylor’s hometown of Detroit, a fact that isn’t lost on him. Taylor recently publicly announced his intention to return to the Gophers in 2024. If he plays, he will by margin be Minnesota’s most valuable offensive player against Bowling Green. If he doesn’t, Minnesota’s RB depth will be a horror show.

S Darius Green started 11 games with 51 tackles, but missed the season finale against Wisconsin. MLB1 Maverick Baranowski (67.5 PFF overall grade/52 tackles) hasn’t seen the field since Week 11. Both could potentially return with the added rest afforded by the bowl’s schedule.

Coaching News: TE coach Andrew Sowder resigned. DC Joe Rossi left for the same post at Michigan State. I’m told the team didn’t expect him to leave, and that Rossi’s departure for what some viewed as a lateral move sent a shockwave through the locker room. Gophers HC PJ Fleck is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four-career bowl games.

Bowling Green Falcons

• QB Hayden Timosciek | 40 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Ta’Ron Keith | 373 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Nick Mosley | 10 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Andrew Bench | 243 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jalen Huskey | 624 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Deshawn Jones Jr. | 197 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Kition Tau | 18 snaps | Transfer portal

RB Ta’Ron Keith was a potent receiving weapon out of the backfield, reeling in 44-of-59 passes for 457 yards and a pristine 2.37 yards per route average to go with a superb 85.8 PFF rushing grade. CB Jalen Huskey was their top cover corner, logging 624 snaps while earning an impressive 83.5 PFF overall defensive grade and 46.6 NFL Passer Rating allowed when targeted.

Injury news: Starting S Trent Simms was injured Week 10 against Ball State and missed the rest of the regular season as a result. He has played 1,148 snaps while making 95 tackles over the last two years with a respectable 71.9 overall defensive grade and 77.5 tackling grade. His return would be a big boost. Particularly to a secondary that will already be playing without CB1 Huskey.

Coaching News: HC Scot Loeffler was upset by New Mexico State last season as a three-point favorite in his only career bowl game.

Texas State vs. Rice

First Responder Bowl | Dallas, TX

Tuesday, December 26 | 5:30p | ESPN

Total: 59.5 | ATL: TSU -3.6 | ATT: 62.9

Texas State Bobcats

• RB Josh Berry | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Calvin Hill | 73 snaps | Transfer portal

Nothing to see here. Hill struggled with injuries this season and watched new RB1 Ismail Mahdi run away with the job, leading to his exit.

Other opt-out news: QB1 TJ Finley announced he will play in this game and make a decision about his future afterwards.

Injury news: The Bobcats have three starters who are unofficially considered questionable for this game with undisclosed injuries: WR Joey Hobert (579 snaps), LG Dorion Strawn (727 snaps), and DE Chance Main (285 snaps).

Hobert is easily the team’s best receiver. He missed two games this season, including the finale, with injury. If he’s out, Ashtyn Hawkins and Kole Wilson, decent starters but not standouts, will be heavily featured. WR Drew Donley (210 snaps) started the first five games but has been sidelined since then with an undisclosed injury and is presumed OFY. Pint-sized slot WR Chris Dawn Jr. saw starter snaps the last two games, but didn’t do much with them.

LG Stawn is solid in pass-pro but doesn’t generate much push in the run game. It’s a downgrade to his backup, but not an enormous one. That last sentence also applies to Main, but that’s more because Texas State has good EDGE depth. Main is the team’s best run defender on the EDGE, but the team’s bench has multiple pass-rushing options that have proven more disruptive in that phase.

Coaching News: This is the first career bowl game for HC GJ Kinne.

Rice Owls

• QB JT Daniels | 502 snaps | Medical retirement

QB1 Daniels retired from football due to persistent concussion issues. He intends to begin his coaching career. QB2 AJ Padgett, who started the last three games, is likely to get the call again. This is a legitimate downgrade. Padgett is greatly flattered by his career 12/4 TD/INT rate. Over that span, PFF charted him with three more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. If Rice is forced to chase from behind, things could get hairy.

Injury news: Sidelined since Week 6, LB Chris Conti (359 snaps) is unofficially considered doubtful to play.

Coaching News: This will be HC Mike Bloomgren’s second bowl game. In his first, last year, Rice lost both SU and ATS.

Kansas vs. UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl | Phoenix, AZ

Tuesday, December 26 | 9:00p | ESPN

Total: 67.5 | ATL: KU -13.9 | ATT: 69.2

Kansas Jayhawks

• WR Tanaka Scott | 109 snaps | Transfer portal
• LT Dominick Puni | 745 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Austin Booker | 482 snaps | NFL Draft

LT Puni was a revelation after transferring up from FCS Tennessee Tech in 2022. A 12-game at left tackle in 2023, Puni earned first-team All-Big 12 honors. He’s projected as a mid-round pick. In Puni’s pace, KU is giving freshman Calvin Clements (11 snaps) his first-career start.

There were mixed reports on whether EDGE Booker would play in this game. HC Lance Leipold confirmed on Dec. 24 that Booked didn’t travel with KU to Phoenix and will, indeed, not play in the game.

Booker was another portal success story. He spent only one year at KU after transferring over from Minnesota. Booker was a heavily-used situational pass-rusher, finishing the season with 12 TFL and eight sacks. Booker was named the Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year. KU always aggressively rotates at the EDGE position with a pool of players — that rotation will be cut down by one, with more snaps for everyone else.

Other opt-out news: TE Will Huggins (18 snaps) will be active for the Bowl game despite being in the portal.

Injury news: Veteran starting RT Bryce Cabeldue has logged 2,324 snaps over his four seasons at KU, but was forced to miss Kansas’ season finale’. OG Ar’maj Reed-Adams kicked over to RT in Cabeldue’s absence, and would likely do so again if Cabeldue is unable to go in the bowl game. To complicate matters, starting LG Michael Ford exited their last game against Cincinnati after 38 snaps. Ford is listed as starting LG on the bowl depth chart, while Cabeldue and Reed-Adams are listed as co-starters at RT. However, as of Dec. 24, the Jayhawks are not directly addressing whether or not Cabeldue will be healthy enough to play.

Coaching News: HC Lance Leipold is 5-1 ATS in six-career bowl games. Leipold’s long-time OC, Andy Kotelnicki, left to accept the same post at Penn State. KU promoted QB coach Jim Zebrowski to co-OC in a corresponding move. But just for this game. The Jayhawks hired former Baylor OC Jeff Grimes to take over the offense following the bowl.

UNLV Rebels

• RB Courtney Reese | 209 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jordan Jakes | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Zavier Carter | 141 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jordyn Morgan | 11 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Cameren Jenkins | 381 snaps | Transfer portal

There were false reports after the regular season that QB1 Jayden Maiava (789 snaps) had entered the portal, but the program swiftly shot down those rumors. Maiava will start, backup up by QB2 Doug Brumfield.

EDGE Carter, who came to UNLV after two years with LSU, will head to the portal after only being used situationally in his only campaign in Las Vegas.

Injury news: Both starting safeties, Jett Elad and Cameren Jenkins, missed the majority of the Mountain West Conference Championship Game against Boise State, which led to multiple big plays over the top from the Broncos. Elad was named a finalist for the Cornish Award given to the nation’s top Canadian born player, while Jenkins played 381 defensive snaps with a 77.2 PFF tackling grade as UNLV’s strong safety.

Coaching News: HC Barry Odom is 0-2 ATS in two career bowl games. After rumors that both could leave for other jobs, Odom and OC Brennan Marion remain in their current roles. Marion interviewed for the HC jobs at San Diego State and UTEP – both ultimately hired other candidates. Odom perhaps signaled his intentions to stay when he picked up a commitment from ​​his son, QB Garyt Odom, a Class of 2025 recruit.

Virginia Tech vs. Tulane

Military Bowl | Annapolis, MD

Wednesday, December 27 | 2:00p | ESPN

Total: 44.5 | ATL: VT -13.6 | ATT: 37.8

Virginia Tech Hokies

• RB Bryce Duke | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Christian Moss | 71 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Daequan Wright | 431 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Johnny Dickson | 19 snaps | Transfer portal

TE Wright took over a starting role over the last seven games, securing 28-of-48 targets for 366 yards and 13.1 YPC with an eye-popping 11 broken tackles. Despite his elusiveness, Wright needs to clear up his 17.6% drop rate at his next destination if he wants to reach his true potential. TE Benji Gosnell is the only other tight end to receive a target over the final five games and will move to a starting role despite a disappointing 41.2 offensive grade in his limited action.

Other opt-out news: VT WRs Ali Jennings, Da’Quan Felton, Jaylin Lane and TE Stephen Gosnell each announced that they will return to school next year.

WR Da’Wain Lofton (190 snaps) and DB Derrick Canteen (395 snaps) will play in the bowl game despite being in the portal. WR Lofton got some run early in the year before falling out of the lineup, catching just one pass for 12 yards from Week 4 onwards. DB Canteen is a versatile rotational piece who saw extended reps on the outside and in the slot in addition to playing 50 reps in the box to take advantage of his 15 stops and elite 91.5 run defense grade.

Coaching News: This will be HC Brent Pry’s first bowl game as boss.

Tulane Green Wave

• QB Michael Pratt | 706 snaps | NFL Draft
• QB Carson Haggard | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Kai Horton | 73 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Chris Brazzell | 632 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jha’Quan Jackson | 314 snaps | NFL Draft
• LG Prince Pines | 425 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Darius Hodges | 401 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jarius Monroe | 754 snaps | Transfer portal
• DB Kiland Harrison | 157 snaps | Transfer portal
• S DJ Douglas | 652 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Michael Pratt opted-out to begin his NFL Draft preparations after accepting a Senior Bowl invite. Pratt was one of the best players in program history. The enormity of his loss goes without saying.

QB2 Kai Horton is in the portal already but will be allowed to play and compete with QB3 Justin Ibieta to see who will start the bowl game. Over four years on campus, Ibieta has attempted 39 passes, completing 67% for 304 passing yards and a 2/2 TD/INT ratio.

WR1 Jha’Quan Jackson, All-AAC EDGE Darius Hodges, All-AAC DB Jarius Monroe and LG Prince Pines have all decided to follow Pratt’s lead and opt-out as well.

WR Chris Brazzell, CB Kentrell Webb, and S DJ Douglas are portal entrants who have confirmed they will not participate in this game.

WR1 will likely be Yulkeith Brown after his standout five catch, 90 yard, one touchdown performance in the AAC Conference Championship. Bryce Bohanon should have the inside track on the starting slot gig, though his 58.7 receiving grade indicates he will be a sizable downgrade from Jackson.

To compensate for Pines’ absence, RG Shadre Hurst (61.6 overall grade/661 snaps) will slide over to LG and RT/RG Trey Tuggle (12 pressures/43.8 pass block grade) could hold down the fort at RG, which was the alignment when Pines missed a few games earlier in the year.

The participation of EDGE’s Deal and Cooper will help compensate for the loss of Tulane’s top pass rusher, Hodges (36 pressures/16 stops).

In the AAC Conference Championship game, CB AJ Hampton was the only other CB besides CB1 Monroe and CB2 Lance Robinson to record a snap and represents a significant downgrade from Monroe, as is evidenced by Hampton’s 60.0 PFF overall grade in 278 snaps. Their safeties room is extremely thin with the departures of S1 Douglas and S3 Webb.

Other opt-out news: TE Alex Bauman (656 snaps), EDGE Devean Deal (488 snaps) and EDGE Keith Cooper Jr. (599 snaps) will all play despite being in the transfer portal.

Injury news: Notre Dame transfer WR Lawrence Keys III is a potent deep threat who caught 33-of-57 passes for 599 yards, 18.2 YPC and seven touchdowns to go with an excellent 2.77 yards per route average. He suffered a foot injury on November 11 against Tulsa and hasn’t seen the field since. 

Coaching News: Tulane HC Willie Fritz left to take the same job at Houston following the Green Wave’s loss to SMU in the AAC title. Fritz took Tulane to bowls in five of the past six seasons after the school had reached only one bowl between 2003-2015. Tulane named OC Slade Nagle interim HC for the bowl game. Nagle was rumored to be heading to Houston with Fritz, but he shot down those rumors and said he would pursue other opportunities after this game. Tulane DB coach Josh Christian-Young is joining Fritz at Houston in the same position. But unlike Fritz, ​​Christian-Young will remain at Tulane through the bowl game. Fritz is also expected to take DC Shiel Wood and WR coach Derrick Sherman with him to Houston for the same spots on the Cougars’ staff. Fritz is also expected to hire Tulane analyst James Ross III as Houston’s new ILB coach.

West Virginia vs. North Carolina

Duke’s Mayo Bowl | Charlotte, NC

Wednesday, December 27 | 5:30p | ESPN

Total: 54.5 | ATL: West Virginia -7.6 | ATT: 60.2

West Virginia Mountaineers

• RB Justin Johnson Jr. | 127 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Ja’Shaun Poke | 380 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Cortez Braham | 151 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jeremiah Aaron | 55 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Christion Stokes | 15 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Davis Mallinger | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Theo Grabill | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Mike Lockhart | 409 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE James Heard | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Andrew Wilson-Lamp | 63 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Hershey McLaurin | 302 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Lance Dixon | 182 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Christion Stokes | 15 snaps | Transfer portal

Justin Johnson served as a backup to starting RB CJ Donaldson, recording 38 carries for 150 yards and 2.39 YAC and is replaceable depth.

Fifth-year starting DT Mike Lockhart (SMU) spent 284 of his 409 snaps clogging the A-gap for the Mountaineers, making 21 tackles with 9.0 TFL and 2.5 sacks. While it’s always a benefit to have a seasoned 300+ pound DT on the gameday roster, Lockhart’s 56.7 defensive grade and 19.2% missed tackle rate show him to be an average player.

Starting S Hershey McLaurin (302 snaps/74.6 PFF defensive grade/44 tackles) will be sorely missed, while S Lance Dixon hasn’t played since Week 7.

Injury news: Starting C Zach Frazier will miss the game following surgery. He’s a top-3 center prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. Frazier played 3,212 snaps over his four-year WVU tenure, allowing a mere five sacks. Frazier’s presence will be sorely missed.

Starting WR Devin Carter ran just two routes in his final regular season game against Baylor, so it will be interesting to see if he’s able to heal up by the time the bowl game rolls around. Carter is the team’s primary deep threat with a sky-high ADOT of 16.6 and an 18.2 yards per catch average, so his presence in the lineup would be a nice boost for the WVU offense.

Coaching News: HC Neal Brown entered the season on a white-hot seat, but saved his job with an 8-4 campaign. Brown is 2-2-1 ATS in five career bowl games.

North Carolina Tar Heels

• QB Drake Maye | 909 snaps | NFL Draft
• QB Jefferson Boaz | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Russell Tabor | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Elijah Green | 446 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB George Pettaway | 74 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tez Walker | 534 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Andre Green Jr. | 93 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tychaun Chapman | 75 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Kamari Morales | 327 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Corey Gaynor | 912 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Justin Kanyuk | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Kedrick Bingley-Jones | 57 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Cedric Gray | 880 snaps | NFL Draft
• LB Sebastian Cheeks | 15 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Deuce Caldwell | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jalen Brooks | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Major Byrd | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Tayon Holloway | 349 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Don Chapman | 612 snaps | Transfer portal

Four-star freshman QB Conner Harrell will get the starting nod in QB1 Drake Maye’s absence. This will be a crucial audition for Harrell after UNC inked former Texas A&M QB Max Johnson to compete for the starting job next summer.

Harrell’s task won’t be easy, as UNC’s WR/TE corps both took shots between opt-outs and injuries. WR Tez Walker and WR/TE Bryson Nesbit, easily the team’s most dangerous pass-catchers, will not play, nor will heavily-used TEs John Copenhaver or Kamari Morales.

Starting C Corey Gaynor has logged an astounding 4,063 snaps over his seven…SEVEN year career for Miami, then UNC. He was formidable in pass protection, posting a 74.9 pass pro grade and has opted out.

Three-year starting LB Cedric Gray is program warrior who accrued 121 tackles, 11.0 TFL and 5.0 sacks for the Tarheels. Promising freshman MLB Amare Campbell (70 snaps/78.4 defensive grade) makes his first career start in Gray’s spot.

CB Tayon Holloway started the first six games, but was passed on the depth chart and shuttled to a reserve role over the final three games.

Other opt-out news: UNC DL Myles Murphy (445 snaps) announced he will play in this game, then enter the NFL Draft afterwards. All-ACC DE Kaimon Rucker has stated he will play in the game and is “leaning toward” returning to UNC in 2024.

Injury news: WR Kobe Paysour hasn’t seen game action since Week 6 when he had 100 yards and a touchdown against Syracuse. Paysour said he is ready to go for the bowl game. He’d better be, with WR Tez Walker (opt-out) confirmed out and slot WR Nate McCollum’s up-in-the-air status. McCollum missed the regular season finale.

Starters CB Alijah Huzzie (727 snaps), TE John Copenhaver (513 snaps) and WR/TE Bryson Nesbit (500 snaps) are all confirmed to be missing the bowl game due to injury. S Will Hardy (246 snaps) is also out. It’s shaping up to be an all-hands-on-deck scenario for the Tar Heels.

Coaching News: HC Mack Brown is 2-2 ATS in four bowl games at UNC.

Louisville vs. USC

Holiday Bowl | San Diego, CA

Wednesday, December 27 | 8:00p | FOX

Total: 58.5 | ATL: Louisville -11.4 | ATT: 66.2

Louisville Cardinals

• RB Jawhar Jordan | 439 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Elijah Downing | 1 snap | Transfer portal
• WR Jamari Thrash | 683 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Izaiah Reed | 8 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Ryheem Craig | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Yirayah Lanier | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Victoine Brown | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Kameron Wilson | 197 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Popeye Williams | 11 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jackson Hamilton | 54 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Derrick Edwards | 15 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Marquis Groves-Killebrew | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Josh Minkins | 227 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Cejae Ceaser | 33 snaps | Transfer portal

RB1 Jawhar Jordan was lightning-in-a-bottle for the Cardinals, rushing for 1,123 yards, 6.2 YPC and 13 TDs. His absence means the very capable Isaac Guerendo (109 rushes/649 yards/8 TDs) will shoulder the majority of the rushing load with RB Maurice Taylor backing him up. WR Jamari Thrash will be missed after leading the team with 63 receptions, 855 yards and six touchdowns. WRs Chris Bell (26-of-39/386/64.3 rec grade) and Kevin Coleman (24-of-34/349/64.6 rec grade) will be asked to step up in his absence.

EDGE Kameron Wilson was an important part of the rotation in the first half, but has barely been a presence in the lineup down the stretch. S Josh Minkins started every game in 2022 for departed HC Marcus Satterfield, but with new HC Jeff Brohm in town now he fell down the depth chart and will look for more playing time elsewhere. Neither are particularly impactful losses.

Other opt-out news: Starting S Cam’Ron Kelly (662 snaps) is entering the NFL Draft, but iis expected to play in the Holiday Bowl nonetheless.

Coaching News: HC Jeff Brohm went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in bowl games at WKU and Purdue. All six of those games went over the total. One of Brohm’s offensive analysts, Dale Williams, who  previously served as OL coach for Brohm at Purdue, was hired as Syracuse’s new OL coach.

USC Trojans

• QB Caleb Williams | 761 snaps | NFL Draft
• QB Malachi Nelson | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Marshawn Lloyd | 398 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Raleek Brown | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Matthew Colombo | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Darwin Barlow | 22 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Brenden Rice | 469 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Mario Williams | 368 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Michael Jackson III | 206 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Jude Wolfe | 65 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL De’Jon Benton | 223 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Jemar Sekona | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Korey Foreman | 25 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Tackett Curtis | 355 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Chris Thompson Jr. | 13 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Domani Jackson | 668 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Xamarion Gordon | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

As of initial publication time, Williams had not yet announced his intentions for next season. But USC HC Lincoln Riley told the media on a conference call in early-December that Williams is “not gonna play” in this game. Williams, the 2022 Heisman winner, is almost assuredly NFL-bound. Five-Star freshman QB Malachi Nelson has hit the portal, so veteran understudy QB Miller Moss will take the reins.

Two important skill starters have confirmed their NFL intentions. RB Lloyd, who had 820 yards and nine TD this fall, is the No. 5 RB in Mel Kiper’s draft rankings. WR Rice, the son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice, posted a 45-791-12 receiving line in 2023. RB2 Austin Jones (73 Att/406 yards/7TDs) and freshman RB Quentin Joyner will handle the majority of backfield reps.

WR Mario Williams (29 recs/305 yards/66.6 receiving grade) was barely on the field for the final four games, and WR Michael Jackson hasn’t caught a pass since Week 8. Five-star freshman wideouts Duce Robinson and Zachariah Branch will pick up the slack in their absence.

DL De’jon Benton started two games and recorded a 62.0 defensive grade, but his woeful 31% missed tackle rate contributed to him not seeing game action since Week 10. LB Tackett Curtis lost his starting job in Week 9 and sports an unsightly 44.5 defensive grade, so his departure was imminent.

CB2 Domani Jackson started every game this season, allowing 20 receptions on 31 targets for a 65% completion rate, 411 yards, 20.6 YPC and two TDs. CB is a major pain point for the Trojans, as four-star WR Makai Lemon (6 snaps) was the only player other than Jackson and CB1 Christian Roland-Wallace to play more than one snap on the outside in Week 12 against UCLA.

Other opt-out news: DE Jamil Muhammad announced he will return next season. Star S Calen Bullock is a potential early-declaree. However, Bullock implied in late-November he would return to school in 2024. Bullock excelled in coverage allowing a 59% completion rate and earning an 82.2 PFF cover grade. USC defense, which ranks No. 107 in pass defense, badly needs him.

Injury news: Starting RG/RT Jarrett Kingston missed the team’s final game in Week 12 with injury, but could possibly play in the bowl game after having several weeks to recover. Kingston split his starting reps between right guard (first 7 games) and right tackle (last 4 games), excelling in pass blocking, posting PFF pass block grades of 75.0 or higher in each of his five collegiate seasons.

Coaching News: HC Lincoln Riley is 2-3 ATS in bowl games. USC just hired former UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn to take over defensive play calling duties from the deposed Alex Grinch after USC allowed 35 PPG (119th in FBS) this year. USC has also hired North Dakota State HC Matt Entz as LB coach.

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State

Texas Bowl | Houston, TX

Wednesday, December 27 | 9:00p | ESPN

Total: 53.0 | ATL: OSU -7.1 | ATT: 58.2

Texas A&M Aggies

• QB Max Johnson | 424 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR/PR Ainas Smith | 559 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Evan Stewart | 403 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Raymond Cottrell | 21 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Jake Johnson | 449 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Fernando Garza | 26 snaps | Transfer portal
• RT Chase Bisontis | 544 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Naquil Betrand | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Layden Robinson | 691 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Remington Strickland | 43 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Jordan Spasojevic-Moko | 9 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Walter Nolan | 365 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Isaiah Raikes | 317 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT McKinnley Jackson | 430 snaps | NFL Draft
• DT Micaiah Overton | 8 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Fadil Diggs | 466 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE LT Overton | 220 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Edgerrin Cooper | 609 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Tyreek Chappell | 488 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Deuce Harmon | 394 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Kent Robinson | 20 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jardin Gilbert | 75 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Bryce Anderson | 545 snaps | Transfer portal

With QB1 Connor Weigman OFY and QB2 Max Johnson off to North Carolina in the portal, QB3 Jaylen Henderson will draw another start. During their respective regular season work, Weigman posted a 91.8 PFF grade, Johnson posted a 78.2 grade, and Henderson (202 snaps) lagged behind at 64.8. Henderson is certainly more mobile than Johnson – though not the runner that Weigman is – but a big drop-off as a passer from both of them. There’s not really untapped potential to argue for on Henderson’s behalf. This is his third year in college. Over two years at Fresno State, the former three-star recruit attempted eight passes.

WR1/2 Smith and Stewart were a strong duo when on the field together. But Stewart left the team before the season was over to focus on his transfer process, and Smith says he will “coach” in this game after declaring for the NFL Draft. Smith underwent surgery to repair a finger he broke in the finale against LSU, likely contributing to his decision. Smith’s subtraction also hurts the special teams – he averaged 14.3 yards per return on 20 punt returns, taking one back to the house.

A&M better hope that WR Moose Muhammad (347 snaps) doesn’t opt out, because they don’t have much left at the position beyond Noah Thomas, Jahdae Walker, and the Moose Man. The Aggies do like to use two-TE sets, but one-of-the-two who received 400-plus snaps – TE Jake Johnson – has left (Jake is QB Max’s brother – their dad is former NFL QB Brad Johnson). No other TE on the roster outside fellow-starter TE Max Wright had even 100 snaps.

Robinson and Bisontis were the starting RG and RT, respectively. OT3 Dametrious Crownover outplayed Bisontis when on the field this fall. Robinson, though, was easily A&M’s best offensive guard. A&M’s two other interior starters were mediocre in 2023, and the RG position is about to drop-off substantially.

DT Jackson was a valued interior starter, sliding between interior A- and B-gap responsibilities. DL Nolan, the former No. 1 overall recruit in his class, was used interchangeably on the interior and on the EDGE. That flexibility, along with the team’s depth at the position, is now gone. A&M will start Isaiah Raikes and Albert Regis in these spots. Both provide decent meat-and-potato run fit work, but won’t provide much havoc. There is zero depth behind them.

Fadil Diggs led all A&M’s EDGE players in snaps. Shemar Stewart, likely to step into the lineup in his place, actually had one more pressure on 44 less pass-rushing snaps. Diggs was his superior in the other facets of the position, however. Perhaps it qualitatively ends up a wash. But the losses of backup EDGE Overton and partial-time EDGE Nolan means A&M is zapped for depth at this spot.

LB1 Cooper was one of the country’s best linebackers. The first-team AP All-American was No. 1 in the SEC with 17 TFL and a dominant 91.1 PFF grade in 2023. Rotational LB3 Chris Russell Jr. will step into the starting lineup. He’s a big downgrade.

A&M used a rotation of three outside CBs. Two of them are now gone in the form of CBs Tyreek Chappell and Deuce Harmon. Josh DeBerry, the third, was A&M’s highest-graded CB. The good news is that DeBerry hasn’t opted-out (not as of this writing, anyway). The bad news is that DeBerry played a mere two snaps – both in the finale against LSU – in the last three games due to injury. The S depth is now shot, too, though S Jarred Kerr will only be a minor downgrade from S Anderson in the starting lineup.

Other opt-out news: Three-year starter C1 Bryce Foster – he’s a 330-pounder nicknamed “The Mountain” – is a potential early declaree for the NFL Draft.

Injury news: QB1 Connor Weigman (226 snaps) is OFY. Backup EDGE Enai White (37 snaps) is OFY with a lower-body injury. CB Josh DeBerry is questionable with a shoulder injury. Prior to the game against LSU – in which DeBerry ultimately played two snaps – interim HC Elijah Robinson deemed him “day-to-day.” DeBerry’s status for this game has not been clarified. His collegiate eligibility exhausts after this season.

Coaching News: A&M fired HC Jimbo Fisher on Nov. 12 and sent him out the door with an NCAA-record $76 million buyout. Fisher’s associate HC, Elijah Robinson, has been serving as the interim coach. Robinson will leave for Syracuse after the bowl game to be DC. Former Duke HC Mike Elko will take the program over following the bowl game. OC Bobby Petrino left after the regular season to take the same position at Arkansas. Kansas State OC Collin Klein has been hired to replace Petrino.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

• QB Gunnar Gundy | 85 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Jaden Nixon | 252 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Blaine Green | 250 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jaden Bray | 485 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Tyrone Webber | 28 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Ricky Lolohea | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Nick Session | 86 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Ladarius Webb | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

RB Jaden Nixon was the satellite-back alternative to sophomore bulldozer Ollie Gordon. With little room for advancement, he will test the waters of the transfer portal. WR Jaden Bray had a lot of camp buzz, and started the first eight games, but fell behind WRs Rashod Owens and Leon Johnson III down the stretch and won’t be a major loss as a result. Ditto for fellow underperforming wideout Blaine Green, who hasn’t had a reception since Week 8.

Other opt-out news: Starting LB Collin Oliver is a potential opt-out after logging 853 snaps 39 pressures and 46 stops. His status should be monitored in the leadup.

Injury news: WR De’Zhuan Stribling caught 14-of-27 targets for 198 yards and a touchdown through the first four games of the season, but was summarily lost for the season to injury. He will not play in the bowl.

Coaching News: In the last nine bowl games coached by HC Mike Gundy, seven have gone under the total. Gundy is one of bowl season’s most profitable coaches, going 11-6 ATS since 2005.

SMU vs. Boston College

Fenway Bowl | Boston, MA

Thursday, December 28 | 11:00a | ESPN

Total: 49.5 | ATL: SMU -9.9 | ATT: 55.5

SMU Mustangs

• TE Nolan Matthews-Harris | 127 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Jacob Waller | 42 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Dylan Frazier | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Daemian Wimberly | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Stephon Wright | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Warren Walls | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

To this point, the Ponies have avoided high-profile defections. The injury front is another story…

Injury news:Star QB Preston Stone will miss the bowl game with backup QB Kevin Jennings handling snaps under center against BC. Jennings completed 19-of-33 passes for 203 yards and a 4-to-2 ratio while earning an 82.0 passing grade on the year. Speedy WR Jordan Kerley caught 18-of-31 passes for 319 yards, 17.7 YPC and two touchdowns before sustaining an injury in Week 10 against Rice. He hasn’t played since. In the ACC title game against Tulane, WR Jake Bailey started in the slot while Key’Shawn Smith and Romello Brinson played the most snaps on the outside. Starting RT Hyrin White got hurt in Week 11 and hasn’t played in the three subsequent contests, with RG Justin Osborne sliding over to RT and allowing zero pressure to Tulane in the AAC Championship Game.

Coaching News: SMU HC Rhett Lashlee, who recently signed a long-term extension, is 0-1 ATS in bowl games. He’s 17-8 SU over two seasons at SMU. RB coach Khenon Hall left to take the same post at Baylor. OC/QB Coach Jonathan Brewer will leave for the same role at Duke, it has not been announced if he will coach SMU in the bowl game. Lashlee is the primary play-caller.

Boston College Eagles

• QB Emmett Morehead | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Patrick Garwo | 158 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Xavier Coleman | 17 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Andre Hines Jr. | 14 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Cam Barfield | 56 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jaden Williams | 159 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Taji Johnson | 130 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Christian Mahogany | 862 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Josh Hardy | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Shitta Sillah | 182 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB CJ Clinkscales | 173 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jason Scott | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Alex Washington | 64 snaps | Transfer portal

RB Pat Garwo is a longtime program stalwart who rushed for 1,048 yards in 2021 and started four of the first five games this year, occurring 266 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC and a respectable 67.0 run grade. However he was injured for the entire second half of the season and lost his starting spot to RB Kyle Robichaux who rushed for 110+ yards in three of BC’s last five contests. WR Taji Johnson was a special teams regular who caught one pass, while WR Jaden Williams (12-of-27/183 yards/54.2 rec grade) is replacement level.

OG Mahogany is a top-100 overall prospect in April’s draft. He’s a three-year starter who was one of college football;s best interior linemen.

LB Shitta Sillah was a reasonable contributor when he saw the field (70.2 defensive grade), but hasn’t played since Week 9 and was mostly a part-timer to that point. Slot CB Clinkscales rose up the depth chart in his first season of collegiate action, starting three of the last four games while posting a 69% completion rate with a middling 51.2 cover grade, which speaks volumes about the lack of depth at the position for BC.

Injury news:WR Ryan O’Keefe (204 snaps) and TE George Takacs (421 snaps) were both lost to season-ending injuries, as was starting CB Elijah Jones (524) and S Cole Watson (544 snaps). CB Jalen Cheek (367 snaps) also missed the season finale for BC’s paper-thin secondary that allowed 8.3 yards per pass this season (117th in FBS).

Coaching News: This will be the first bowl game of HC Jeff Haffley’s career. The Eagles went 6-6 in 2021 and were invited to the Military Bowl to play ECU, but that game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols with Boston College’s roster.

Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers

Pinstripe Bowl | Bronx, NY

Thursday, December 28 | 2:15p | ESPN

Total: 40.5 | ATL: Rutgers -1.0 | ATT: 45.3

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

• QB Tyler Van Dyke | 660 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Donald Chaney | 169 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Colbie Young | 599 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Frank Ladson | 33 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Williams Hawkins | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Jaleel Skinner | 25 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Matt Lee | 797 snaps | NFL Draft
• OG Javion Cohen | 831 snaps | NFL Draft
• DT Leonard Taylor | 341 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Jahafri Harvey | 313 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Chantz Williams | 127 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Cyrus Moss | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Tyler Lassiter | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Corey Flagg | 392 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Malik Curtis | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S James Williams | 730 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Kameron Kitchens | 638 snaps | NFL Draft

QB1 Van Dyke battled injuries throughout the regular season. Upon its conclusion, he entered the portal and transferred to Wisconsin. First time starting QB Jacurri Brown takes over and will see his first reps of the 2023 season.

RB Donald Chaney Jr. was a highly -outed recruit, but freshman sensation RB Mark Fletcher’s emergence rendered Chaney obsolete.

WR Colbie Young started every game for the Canes catching 47-of-63 passes for 574 yards and five touchdowns to go with his decent 1.74 Y/RR average. The burner is transferring to Georgia. Rising star WR Jacolby George took over as WR1 down the stretch for Miami with 55 recs, 851 yards, 8 TDs and a strong 77.2 receiving grade.

Alabama transfer LG Javion Cohen had a strong final season, allowing one sack, 14 pressures and a 74.3 pass block grade, it’s unlikely he plays. He accepted a Senior Bowl invite and is off to the draft process.

DT Leonard Taylor was a force on the interior. He generated 21 pressures and 11 stops with a strong 82.0 PFF pass rush grade for the potential first-rounder, as Taylor is the No. 3 DT in Mel Kiper’s position rankings.

Fourth-year LB Corey Flagg made 48 tackles with 7.0 TFL while starting two of the last three games. WLB K.J. Cloyd (361 snaps/64.8 defensive grade) started six games this year, effectively splitting reps with Flagg and will now have the starting job to himself.

Miami is going to be thin on the back-end with starting S duo Kamren Kinchens and James Williams — the Nos. 1 and 5 safeties on Mel Kiper’s big board, respectively — exiting for the NFL Draft. SS Williams earned an exceptional 85.6 PFF coverage grade while leading the team with 73 tackles. FS Kinchens started 10 games and allowed 28-of-34 targets to be completed (82.4%) for 472 yards while picking off five passes.

Injury news: Starting CB Daryl Porter Jr. went down early in Miami’s Week 10 contest at NC State and did not return for the remainder of the regular season. Porter Jr. held opposing receivers to 11 catches on 22 targets for just 108 receiving yards and is a key cog in Miami’s No. 31-ranked pass defense. Keep an eye on his playing status.

Coaching News: HC Mario Cristobal is 2-4-1 ATS in seven career bowl games.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

• QB Evan Simon | 278 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Raeden Oliver | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Gavin Rupp | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Aaron Young | 152 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Max Patterson | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Rashad Rochelle | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Kamar Missouri | 213 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Mike Ciafonni | 118 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Carnell Davis | 17 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Max Melton | 622 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Todd Bowles | 2 snaps | Transfer portal

OG Mike Ciafonni played consistent reps through the first five weeks, but has barely seen the field since then. Similar story for OT Missouri, who started four of the first six games at RT before being switched to the left side and logging just 11 snaps over the second half of the year.

Rutgers lost one of their best singular players when CB1 Max Melton announced he would opt-out to begin NFL Draft prep. Melton allowed a 55% completion rate on 44 targets for 252 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. His loss is a major one, with CB2 Robert Longerbeam (49% completion rate/280 yards/one INT) stepping into the top corner role, and CB Eric Rogers (62.3 cover grade/39% completion rate) moving into the starting lineup.

Other opt-out news: Starting RB Kyle Monangai has announced his intention to return to Rutgers for the 2024 season.

Injury news: Starting TE Johnny Langan is scheduled to have season-ending surgery after catching 14-of-21 passes for 121 yards while earning a middling 55.2 PFF offensive grade. TE Shawn Bowman started in his place in Week 13, catching 3-of-4 passes for 18 yards while running 20 routes. Starting LB Tyreem Powell was lost for the season to a hand injury a month ago.

Coaching News: On Dec. 13, HC Greg Schiano signed a new contract extension that runs through the 2030 season. This will be Schiano’s eighth bowl game at Rutgers. All other Rutgers HCs across program history combined to reach four bowl games. In his previous seven bowl trips, Schiano went 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.

Kansas State vs. North Carolina State

Pop-Tarts Bowl | Orlando, FL

Thursday, December 28 | 5:45p | ESPN

Total: 47.5 | ATL: KSU -1.1 | ATT: 51.0

Kansas State Wildcats

• QB Will Howard | 784 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Jake Rubley | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Adryan Lara | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Treshaun Ward | 332 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Anthony Frias | 41 snaps | Transfer portal
• FB Christian Moore | 41 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR RJ Garcia II | 231 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Xavier Loyd | 45 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Wesley Watson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Phillip Brooks | 756 snaps | NFL Draft
• TE Ben Sinnott | 768 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Nate Matlack | 342 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jordan Perry | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Collin Dunn | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Will Lee | 453 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jordan Wright | 60 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Kove Savage | 711 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Howard’s defection opens the door for QB2 Avery Johnson – one of the highest-ranked recruits to ever sign with K-State – to take over the starting gig beginning with this game. After there were rumors that the former highly regarded four-star recruit could follow OC Collin Klein to Texas A&M – since shot-down – Johnson reaffirmed his commitment to K-State by announcing he was changing his jersey number from No. 5 to No. 2 on Dec. 7.

Johnson has been listed as a co-starter on the depth chart alongside Howard since mid-October when he was heavily-used as a change-of-pace option during the regular season, sparking the offense multiple times. He completed 65.7% of his attempts for 301 yards and three TD, while running for 225 yards and six TD during the regular season.

RB Ward was a valued part of KSU’s two-headed RB tandem, turning 124 carries into 643 yards and six touchdowns while posting a very respectable 80.9 PFF run grade. With Ward out of the picture and a true freshman QB entering the starting lineup, you can bet that RB DJ Giddens is in line for a monster workload in this game.

All-Big 12 TE Ben Sinnott concludes a standout season where he caught 49 passes for 676 yards and six touchdowns by opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Sinnott, a first-team All-Big 12 pick in 2023, is the No. 2 FB/H-Back in Mel Kiper’s position rankings.

Sixth-year WR Phillip Brooks, a long-time steady starter, is also opting-out to begin his NFL Draft prep. Brooks, who logged a 53-589-5 line in 2023, posted three-consecutive 500-plus receiving-yard seasons. He was also a skilled kick and punt returner.

Other opt-out news: OG Cooper Beebe (870 snaps), a potential Round 1 pick, has not yet announced his intentions.

Injury news: Run-stuffing NT Uso Seumalo (6’3/340) left KSU’s Week 12 game against Kansas and was seen on crutches during the team’s Week 13 broadcast. LBs Jake Clifton (227 snaps) and Daniel Green (157 snaps) are both out for the season with injuries.

Coaching News: HC Chris Klieman is 1-2 ATS in three career bowl games. KSU OC Collin Klein left after the regular season to take the same post at Texas A&M. Klein previously turned down offers from both Notre Dame and Penn State to take over their offenses. KSU’s offense impressed with averages of 446.1 yards and 37.8 points per game this fall.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

• QB MJ Morris | 236 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Jordan Houston | 91 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Michael Allen | 91 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Porter Rooks | 289 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Terrell Timmons Jr. | 216 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Anthony Smith | 93 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Josh Crabtree | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Chris Scott | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Fred Seabrough Jr. | 60 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Chris Toudle | 137 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Lyndon Cooper | 311 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Jaleel Davis | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL CJ Clark | 451 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Daejuan Thompson | 9 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Torren Wright | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Payton Wilson | 716 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Chris Scott | 4 snaps | transfer portal
• S Cecil Powell | 43 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jakeen Harris | 5 snaps | Transfer portal

QB Morris took over the starting gig in the middle of the season. But he was unable to run away with it, and ultimately had a disagreement with the program about his role heading into next season, leading to his early-exit to retain a redshirt in 2023. That development re-inserted veteran QB Brennan Armstrong, the Week 1 starter, into the lineup. Armstrong has played much better since then, in contrast to his struggles in September that got him the hook. Armstrong makes his final collegiate start, here. NC State hands the offensive keys to former Coastal Carolina star QB Grayson McCall in 2024.

TE Toudle didn’t catch a pass all season and has transferred down to Western Michigan, while C Cooper lost his starting job in Week 7 and has seen just 13 snaps since then. Starting DT CJ Clark recorded 22 tackles with 4.0 TFL and a 60.7 defensive grade and has committed to Miami. Second-year DT Brandon Cleveland accounted for 23 tackles, 3.5 TFL and 3.0 sacks in just 206 snaps and was objectively a better player than Clark this year.

Star LB Payton Wilson opted-out of this game and declared for the NFL Draft. One of the nation’s best linebackers, Wilson posted an 88.6 PFF grade with a 90.4 coverage grade this fall.

Coaching News: HC Dave Doeren is 5-3 ATS in eight career bowl games.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma

Alamo Bowl | San Antonio, TX

Thursday, December 28 | 9:15p | ESPN

Total: 62.5 | ATL: Arizona -4.8 | ATT: 57.8

Arizona Wildcats

• RB Stevie Rocker | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LT Jordan Morgan | 787 snaps | NFL Draft
• DL Orin Patu | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Jason Harris | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Daniel Heimuli | 194 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Ammon Allen | 64 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Canyon Moses | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Isaiah Taylor | 146 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Cruz Rushing | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

LT Jordan Morgan is a top-75 overall prospect in this upcoming draft class. Not surprisingly, he’s skipping this game. Morgan allowed just two sacks in 459 pass reps and received a sensational 89.9 pass block grade from PFF.

LB Heimuli started three of the first five games, but played a mere 29 reps over the last seven contests. Same thing for S Isaiah Taylor who started two of the first three games before riding the bench over the second half.

Other opt-out news: WR Jacob Cowing accepted a Senior Bowl invitation and could follow Morgan in opting-out.

Injury news: Starting S Martell Irby (77.1 PFF defensive grade) was injured in Week 11 against Colorado and failed to record a snap over the final two weeks. He apparently dressed for the finale, but was ultimately held out as a precaution which is a good sign for his bowl game availability. RB DJ Williams (147 snaps) sustained a knee injury in Week 12 and is questionable to play.

Coaching News: HC Jedd Fisch failed to cover in his only previous bowl game as an HC. Quick! Trivia time! Name that game… (waits)…. it was the 2017 Cactus Bowl, back when Fisch was running out the string as UCLA’s interim HC. The Bruins lost 35-17 to Kansas State.

Oklahoma Sooners

• QB Dillon Gabriel | 839 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Davis Beville | 7 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Tawee Walker | 252 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Marcus Major | 213 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Daylan Smothers | 33 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR DJ Graham | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Justin Llewellyn | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Savion Byrd | 181 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Cayden Green | 568 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Andrew Raym | 874 snaps | NFL Draft
• OT Tyler Guyton | 663 snaps | NFL Draft
• OT Nate Anderson | 36 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Aaryn Parks | 30 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Marcus Hicks | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Reggie Grimes | 49 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Kevin Gillian | 47 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB DJ Graham | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Key Lawrence | 398 snaps | Transfer portal

Star QB1 Dillon Gabriel leaves to take over the starting quarterback job at Oregon. Gabriel is a star, and a big loss. The Sooners do, however, have a very intriguing five-star freshman understudy to unbox against the Wildcats.

QB2 Jackson Arnold, the former Elite 11 winner, completed 75% of his 24 passes this year. Recruiting analysts rave about his upside. But obviously we don’t entirely know what we’re going to get until he steps on the field against Arizona.

RBs Majors and Walker had more prominent roles early in the season, but sophomore RB Gabe Sawchuk took over the lead back role leaving little opportunity for the two established vets.

RT Tyler Guyton, a potential top-50 pick, opted-out to begin his draft preparation. He checks in as Mel Kiper’s No. 7 draft-eligible OT, but has the potential to rise up the ranks after athletic testing.

C Andrew Raym is a well-regarded interior lineman who is following Guyton’s lead in opting-out of the bowl. Raym was a three-year stalwart starter who tallied 2,196 snaps over his Sooner career despite allowing 16 pressures in 2023.

Freshman starting LG Cayden Green gave up 12 pressures and zero sacks which earned him a 71.4 pass block grade. He will anchor the interior of the Missouri offensive line next year.

RT Jacob Sexton started the last three games in place of an injured Guyton so he will resume that role despite allowing a team-worst 4.9% pressure rate. Caleb Shaffer, who is a strong pass protector, but his 3.3% blown run-block rate is the second-worst mark on the team. A proven pass pro specialist who has allowed just one sack in 811 career snaps, Troy Everett slides over from guard to start at center.

S Key Lawrence is the lone “key” – sorry – defensive departure, having played 1,291 snaps over his three-year Oklahoma career. He recorded 44 tackles with three PBU and two Interceptions while earning a 66.5 defensive grade, and will be replaced at safety by Reggie Pearson (364 snaps/55.9 defensive grade).

Other opt-out news: OU got some good news with star All-Big 12 LB Danny Stutsman (654 snaps) and standout S Billy Bowman (713 snaps) announcing their return to the program.

Injury news: WR Andrel Anthony (290 snaps) tore up his knee in Week 6 and unfortunately won’t be back until 2024. Oklahoma’s deep-passing game wasn’t as effective with its downtown-guy, Anthony, on the shelf.

Coaching News: HC Brent Venables covered in his first bowl game last year, a narrow 35-32 loss to Florida State. It was an impressive showing by the Sooners, who overcame opt-outs and a poor 6-6 regular season to play even with a team that finished 10-3 last year and is 13-0 in 2023. Oklahoma offensive analyst Phil Loadholt left to become Coach Prime’s new OL coach at Colorado. Two-year OC Jeff Lebby left to become the HC of Mississippi State. He is being succeeded by former North Texas HC Seth Littrell, who spent 2023 as an offensive analyst for the Sooners who are opting to promote from within. OU analyst Phil Loadholt was hired as Colorado’s new OL coach.

Clemson vs. Kentucky

Gator Bowl | Jacksonville, FL

Friday, December 29 | 12:00p | ESPN

Total: 46.5 | ATL: Kentucky -2.2 | ATT: 58.3

Clemson Tigers

• QB Hunter Helms | 31 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Beaux Collins | 636 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Sage Ennis | 173 snaps | Transfer portal
• OL Mitchell Mayes | 352 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Ruke Orhorhoro | 409 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE David Ojiegbe | 11 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jeremiah Trotter | 689 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Nate Wiggins | 494 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Toriano Pride | 150 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Andrew Mukuba | 581 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Lannden Zanders | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

WR Collins was a three-year starter who never quite lived up to his billing – failing to post a PFF grade higher than 65.2 in any of those seasons. His inconsistencies frustrated, but Collins was one of the few guys on the roster able to make contested plays down the field. He’s headed to Notre Dame to play his final season of eligibility with fellow transfer QB Riley Leonard.

OL Mayes struggled whenever he was on the field this fall. He transferred down to Charlotte.

DL Orhorhoro had five sacks and was named to the third-team All-ACC team for a second-consecutive season.

LB Trotter, Mel Kiper’s No. 2 LB in the 2024 draft class, posted 88 tackles, 15 TFL, 5.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception during the regular season. He was a first-team All-ACC honoree, as well as a Butkus Award finalist.

S Mukuba was a three-year starter. In 2021, he burst onto the scene as a Freshman All-American and the ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year. He transferred to Texas, a homecoming – Mukuba hails from Austin, Texas.

Clemson is in a worse position at CB. “We have no corners. I’m drafting guys,” HC Dabo Swinney said on Dec. 12. CB Wiggins, No. 24 overall on Mel Kiper’s big board, earned first-team All-ACC honors in 2023. With CB Wiggins and CB Pride out the door, and CB Sheridan Jones out with an injury, Clemson’s starting CBs for this game are Avieon Terrell and Shelton Lewis.

Myles Oliver, practiced at less than 100-percent health in advance of this game, will get a lot of work behind them. The CB situation at Clemson is so dire that Swinney got RB Peyton Streko and WR Hamp Greene practice time this month at CB in case an emergency forces them into action.

Other opt-out news: Impact defensive starters DT Tyler Davis and LB Barrett Carter were both listed on the bowl depth chart in the days leading up to this game. Each will start. As will RB Will Shipley, whose availability was tipped-off by HC Swinney weeks ago.

Injury news: WR Brannon Spector (76 snaps), LG Marcus Tate (508 snaps/86.7 pass block grade) and S Jalyn Phillips (319 snaps/80.3 tackle grade) have all been out since Week 9 with undisclosed injuries. WRs Spector and Williams were listed as backups on the bowl depth chart, while Phillips is listed as the starting FS. OG Tate is not listed. WR Antonio Williams has been out since Week 8 with a leg injury. CB Sheridan Jones is confirmed out with a hip injury.

Coaching News: HC Dabo Swinney is 12-7 ATS over his career in bowl games. Clemson fired OL Thomas Austin and DE coach Lemanski Hall. Those positions will be filled by Matt Luke and Chris Rumph, respectively, following the bowl game. In-house fill-ins will plug the holes on an interim basis until then.

Kentucky Wildcats

• QB Destin Wade | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Kaiya Sheron | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Dekel Crowdus | 45 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Izayah Cummings | 124 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Grant Bingham | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LG Kenneth Horsey | 202 snaps | NFL Draft
• RT Jeremy Flax | 565 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Keatan Wade | 371 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Jamarius Dinkins | 89 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Martez Thrower | 101 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Luke Fulton | 10 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jalen Geiger | 253 snaps | Transfer portal

The Wade twins, QB Destin and EDGE Keatan, committed to Colorado in tandem on Dec. 15. Keatan appeared in every game the last two seasons. A rotational EDGE, he posted 35 tackles, three TFL, and a sack in 2023. Destin is a backup who wouldn’t have played in this game. TE Izayah Cummings transferred to Louisville.

LG Horsey is a long-time starter who struggled with injuries throughout the 2023 campaign. Likely because of that, he shut himself down after the regular season finale to get healthy for the NFL Draft process.

RT Flax was a surprise opt-out the week prior to this game. He’s accepted a Hula Bowl invite to kick-off his NFL Draft process. Dylan Ray will start at left guard, and Courtland Ford to start at right tackle. Each of those guys on a per-snap basis was not a drop-off from the starter they’re replacing – however, Kentucky’s offensive line depth is now thin.

Other opt-out news: Starters QB Devin Leary, RB Ray Davis (1,383 total yards/20 TDs) and CB Andru Phillips (653 snaps/68.0 PFF cover grade) are all NFL Draft-bound, but each will play in the bowl game. RB JuThan McClain (82 snaps) and TE Jordan Dingle (284 snaps) are both in the transfer portal but will play.

Injury news: TE Jordan Dingle hasn’t played since Week 11, but his health status shouldn’t be relevant since he’s in the transfer portal. Fellow TE Josh Kattus also was unable to suit up for UK’s last game against Louisville, which could present a positional depth issue if he’s unable to play as both Dingle and TE Izayah Cummings are in the portal.

Coaching News: HC Mark Stoops flirted strongly with the Texas A&M job in late-November before ultimately deciding to stay. Stoops is 3-3-1 ATS in seven career bowl games. An interim WR coach is in place for this game after the school fired WR coach Scott Woodward.

Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

Sun Bowl | El Paso, TX

Friday, December 29 | 2:00p | CBS

Total: 41.5 | ATL: ND -1.2 | ATT: 51.9

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• QB Sam Hartman | 678 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Audric Estime | 388 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Chris Tyree | 276 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Rico Flores Jr. | 404 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Braylon James | 22 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tobias Merriweather | 378 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Holden Staes | 369 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Zeke Correll | 558 snaps | Transfer portal
• LT Joe Alt | 713 snaps | NFL Draft
• RT Blake Fisher | 713 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Joey Tanona | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Aidan Keanaaina | 40 snaps | Transfer portal
• DE Nana Osafo-Mensah | 252 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Marist Liufau | 595 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Ryan Barnes | 16 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Cam Hart | 572 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Ramon Henderson | 304 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Antonio Carter | 72 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Sam Hartman’s defection, on Dec. 11, was a surprise. Hartman previously stated he would play in this game. But he changed his mind, and will begin preparing for the NFL Draft immediately. Hartman had 2,689 passing yards and a 26/8 TD/INT rate this fall. Hartman’s decision elevates QB2 Steve Angeli to the starting post for this game. Angeli posted a 5/1 TD/INT rate in a five-appearance mop-up duty sample this fall.

Three days after Hartman’s announcement, RB1 Estime likewise opted-out to begin draft prep. Estime is a top-3 back on the boards of both Mel Kiper and Matt Miller. A second-team AP All-American in 2023, Estime posted an absurd 94.2 PFF grade in 2023. He ran for 1,341 yards and 18 TD. Jeremiyah Love is likely to start with Gi’Bran Payne and Jadarian Price mixing in behind him. Love forced 19 missed tackles and ranked No. 23 with 4.16 rushing yards after contact per attempt.

The Irish’s wide receiving room has been blown up, from the firing of the coach (below) to the mass exodus of players to the portal. Tyree posted 26 catches for 484 yards and three TD during the regular season. He’s an explosive, slippery player with the ball in his hands – dangerous return man – who needs to clean up the drops.

Losing him along with Flores hurts. Flores flashed big potential with a 27-392-1 line during the 2023 regular season as a true freshman. He was one of Sam Hartman’s favorite targets. Flores’ absence sting more from a long-term perspective, but Hartman will miss him in this game. Merriweather is a former top-100 recruit who never quite got going in South Bend, ending his two-year career with just 15 catches.

TE Staes played a lot more after the season-ending knee injury to TE1 Mitchell Evans. Staes had a 15-176-4 line in 2023 as a sophomore, much of it coming during a 115-yard, two-TD explosion versus NC State.

LT Joe Alt (713 snaps) was an expected loss. But that doesn’t mitigate the sting of his opt-out to prepare for the NFL Draft. The 6-foot-8, 322-pound Alt was a 2023 Lombardi Award finalist and a two-time AP first-team All-American. Alt, the No. 15 overall player on Mel Kiper’s board, posted a 90.8 PFF grade this fall.

The Irish’s other starting tackle, RT Fisher, also opted-out for the draft. Fisher started the past 25 games. Fisher has a ton of talent – he actually beat out Alt for the LT gig two years ago before quickly getting injured and Wally Pipp’d – but hasn’t put it all together yet. He posted a 71.1 PFF grade in 2023.

Tosh Baker, Aamil Wagner, and Charles Jagusah are the three guys in line to plug the two tackle holes. Baker and Wager were the backup OTs during the fall. Jagusah, a highly-touted freshman who ranked highest among ND’s 2023 class, only played five snaps all season after beginning the fall injured. They all came at guard. But he began bowl practices getting LT1 snaps.

Prior to missing the final two games of the regular season with a concussion, C Correll had started 23 games in a row. Redshirt freshman C Ashton Craig acquitted himself well in Correll’s place against Wake Forest and Stanford, softening that blow a bit.

iOL Tanona isn’t really a loss, as he’s been medically retired the past two seasons. He announced his unretirement along with his plans to find a new home via the Transfer portal.

DE Osafo-Mensah and DB Henderson were both heavily-used rotational players who are leaving to find full-time gigs elsewhere. Osafo-Mensah posted 5.5 TFL and three sacks despite starting only one game. Henderson had an interception, three pass breakups and two fumble recoveries.

Notre Dame lost two impact defensive starters in LB Marist Liufau and CB Cam Hart. LB Liufau had 44 solo tackles, six TFL, three sacks and two break-ups this year.

CB Hart, who converted from wide receiver in 2019, developed into a shutdown corner on campus. He only gave up 15 receptions on 28 targets while starting all 12 games during the regular season. When he gave up a catch, the whistle was blowing quickly – of the 137 yards that Hart gave up, only 42 were YAC. Jaden Mickey and Christian Gray will both see upticks in snaps in his absence.

Other opt-out news: S Xavier Watts (675 snaps), who won the Nagurski, confirmed that he’ll play in this game. DT Howard Cross (582 snaps) also appears to be a-go after announcing his return for next season. DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste (496 snaps) and LB JD Bertrand (613 snaps) both plan to play.

Injury news: TE1 Mitchell Evans is out for the season with an ACL tear. RG1 Rocco Spindler (559 snaps) was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 10. Billy Schrauth (196 snaps) slotted into the lineup as Spindler’s replacement. WRs Jayden Thomas, Deion Colzie and KK Smith are all expected to return from injuries in this game. That’s clutch, since most of the rest of Notre Dame’s receiving room has been blown up by defections.

Coaching News: Following the end of the regular season, Notre Dame fired WR Chansi Stuckey. Stuckey is being replaced by Wisconsin associate HC and WR coach Mike Brown. OC Gerad Parker left to become Troy’s new HC. QB coach Gino Guidugli, the former OC at Cincinnati, will take over play-calling duties in this game. HC Marcus Freeman says he’s a candidate for the full-time gig.

Oregon State Beavers

• QB DJ Uiagalelei | 704 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Aidan Chiles | 100 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Damien Martinez | 488 snaps | Suspension
• WR Anthony Gould | 517 snaps | NFL Draft
• TE Jack Veilling | 585 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Jake Overman | 56 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Tailese Fuaga | 700 snaps | NFL Draft
• LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold | 741 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jermod McCoy | 410 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Akili Arnold | 684 snaps | Transfer portal
• K Atticus Sappington | 122 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Uiagalelei threw for 2,638 yards with a 21/7 TD/INT rate for the Beavers this season. With QB2 Chiles – Oregon State’s change-of-pace running quarterback this fall – also opting-out (he followed HC Jonathan Smith to Michigan State), the Beavs will be down to QB3 Ben Gulbranson.

Gulbranson is far more experienced than your typical QB3, having started the final eight games of 2022. He was knocked down the depth chart after Oregon State poached Uiagalelei from Clemson and signed Chiles out of the prep ranks.

RB1 Martinez, the team’s bellcow runner, was suspended after getting arrested in late-November on suspicion of DUII. Though he was ultimately reinstated, HC Trent Bray said Martinez will not play in the bowl game because he missed too many bowl practices. Martinez led the Beavers with 1,185 rushing yards and nine TD.

TE1 Velling posted 29 catches and eight TD in 2023. Big downgrade to TE2 Jermaine Terry II, who posted an unsightly 44.4 PFF grade. OT Fuaga, who had an elite 88.9 PFF grade, is the No. 17 overall prospect on Mel Kiper’s big board.

LB1 Mascarenas-Arnold was the team’s leading tackler. He’s off to USC. Heavily-used CB McCoy transferred to Tennessee. K1 Sappington went 13-of-14 on FG attempts.

Other opt-out news: Oregon State expects CBs Jaden Robinson and Noble Thomas to play in this game.

Injury news: Starting LT Joshua Gray 682 snaps/70.9 PFF overall grade) has been ruled out for the bowl with a foot injury. LG Heneli Bloomfield (619 snaps/72.9 PFF overall grade) was lost for the season in Week 12. At the time he went down, Bloomfield was the Pac-12’s fourth-highest-graded guard by PFF’s metrics. Oregon State’s opt-out situation was bad enough. Injuries also conspired to wipe out the left side of the offensive line.

Coaching News: OSU HC Jonathan Smith left to take the Michigan State job. The Beavers elevated DC Trent Bray to permanent HC to replace Smith. Interestingly, though, Oregon State has elected to have Bray focus on recruiting, and not the bowl game, this month. With Bray not involved in bowl prep, the Beavers named passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson interim HC for this game. There are numerous other staff changes for this game after the staff was blown up following Smith’s defection. OC Brian Lindgren, RB coach Keith Bhonapha, OL coach Jim Michalczik, and DB coach Blue Adams all followed Smith to East Lansing. CB coach Anthony Perkins will fill-in for Bray as interim DC in this game. Jon Boyer has been elevated from senior advisor on offense to TE coach.

Iowa State vs. Memphis

Liberty Bowl | Memphis, TN

Friday, December 29 | 3:30p | ESPN

Total: 57.5 | ATL: ISU -9.8 | ATT: 61.7

Iowa State Cyclones

• RB Cartevious Norton | 240 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Eli Sanders | 195 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Greg Gaines | 16 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Quaron Adams | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE DeShawn Hanika | 294 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Darrell Simmons | 192 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Jefferson Adam | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Carston Marshall| 64 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Joseph Jean-Louis | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Terrell Crosby | 51 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Myles Norwood | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Treyveon McGee | 54 snaps | Transfer portal

RBs Norton and Sanders were the team’s top-two backs in terms of snaps. And while both are solid players, youngster RB Abu Sama III (84.6 PFF grade) deserved more usage, and he’s going to get it here. Sama averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards after contact per attempt over his 72 carries.

Outside of that, Iowa State had few defections of note. OG Simmons was the only other player with more than 65 snaps who entered the portal. But the emergence of true freshman Brendan Black got Simmons phased out of the lineup around the midway point of the season.

Other opt-out news: The program isn’t confirming whether or not CB TJ Tampa (747 snaps) – a projected second-rounder – will play. On Dec. 24, after Iowa State had arrived in Memphis, HC Matt Campbell, standing in the lobby of the Peabody Hotel, said the following: “He is here. “He will practice. He’s been practicing every step of the way.”

Injury news: S Malik Verdon (496 snaps) fractured his forearm Week 12 against Texas and is considered questionable to play. HC Matt Campbell did say he has a chance to return. Reserve S Ben Nikkel (267 snaps/69.0 PFF overall grade) also missed the season finale with freshman Drew Surges filling in, so the Cyclones could be thin on their back line.

Coaching News: The last six bowl games HC Matt Campbell has coached in have gone under the total. In eight career bowls, Campbell is 3-5 ATS.

Memphis Tigers

• QB Tevin Carter | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Raydrian McKneely | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RG Davion Carter | 852 snaps | Transfer portal
• LT Makylan Pounders | 673 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Zy Brockington | 24 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Hydee Barlow | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Meonta Kimbrow | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Tre Wright | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

Memphis only had two starters enter the portal. Unfortunately, they both came along the offensive line. RG Carter was Memphis’ highest-graded player, per PFF, with an 81.5. Perhaps LT Pounders will be a bit easier to replace. He struggled with a 63.8 PFF grade. OT3 Terrance McClain was qualitatively similar in his looks, garnering a 64.2 PFF grade. But Pounders and McClain are opposites – Pounders is a solid pass blocker who doesn’t get a push in the run game, while McClain is poor in pass-pro but strong in the run game.

Injury news: CB Julian Barnett (322 snaps/59.4 PFF overall grade) missed the final game, though he had been relegated to a rotational role in the second half of the year. Backup EDGE Andres Fox (181 snaps/60.8 PFF defensive grade) didn’t play in the final two games.

Coaching News: HC Ryan Silverfield is a career 2-1 ATS in bowl games. Silverfield’s DC, Matt Barnes, accepted a new job as co-DC and S coach at Mississippi State.

Missouri vs. Ohio State

Cotton Bowl | Arlington, TX

Friday, December 29 | 8:00p | ESPN

Total: 49.0 | ATL: Mizzou -0.5 | ATT: 47.8

Ohio State Buckeyes

• QB Kyle McCord | 703 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Chip Trayanum | 252 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Evan Pryor | 31 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Miyan Williams | 107 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Julian Fleming | 552 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Joe Royer | 22 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Victor Cutler Jr. | 21 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Omari Abor | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Reid Carrico | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jyaire Brown | 48 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Ryan Turner | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• DB Cameron Martinez | 28 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Kye Stokes | 10 snaps | Transfer portal

With McCord’s departure to Syracuse, Ohio State turns to former five-star QB2 Devin Brown (72 snaps) for the Cotton Bowl. QB3 Lincoln Kienholz bumps up to Brown’s backup for the game.

In limited action this year, Brown went 12-of-22 for 197 yards and a 2/1 TD/INT. “Not knocking Kyle (McCord), but Devin can move around better,” WR2 Emeka Egbuka said. “He has a knack for extending the play when it’s broken down… He’s got a cannon too.” This will be a return to the field for Brown, who hasn’t played since getting injured on a run against Penn State in October. The Buckeyes had several packages in their playbook to take advantage of Brown’s mobility.

RB1 TreVeyon Henderson said in the week lead-up to this game that he will play. Henderson has 1,083 yards from scrimmage and 11 rushing TD in nine games this year. But Ohio State’s RB depth is officially toast behind him after RB2 Williams left to begin NFL preparations, and RB3 Trayanum and (injured) RB4 Pryor transferred to, respectively, Kentucky and Cincinnati.

WR3 Fleming accumulated 270 yards on 26 receptions this fall. WR Carnell Tate, who has tallied 260 yards and a TD as a true freshman, is in line for more snaps in the bowl.

Other opt-out news: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (649 snaps) is expected to opt-out to begin his preparations for the NFL Draft, though that isn’t yet official. In fact, even less than 24 hours before kickoff, Ohio State is having some fun keeping its cards close to the vest. When HC Ryan Day was asked on Dec. 28 if Harrison would play in this game, he said: “We’ll know in about 24 hours.” One factor leading folks to believe Harrison will not play: He did not participate in the team’s final bowl practice that was visible to the media, on Thursday. Harrison, the Biletnikoff Award winner, had a 67-1211-14 receiving line this season.

Either way – and most fortunately for the Buckeyes – fellow starter WR Emeka Egbuka and CB Denzel Burke, an All-American, both announced on Dec. 12 that they will play in this game. Egbuka and Burke told the media that they have both not yet made up their minds on whether to declare for the draft afterwards or return to campus in 2024.

Starting OG Donovan Jackson and starting DT Tyleik Williams, another All-American, have both also stated that they will play in the bowl game. DE Jack Sawyer (549 snaps), CB Jordan Hancock, and S Josh Proctor (552 snaps) have also said publicly they are playing.

We are also awaiting announcements from TE Cade Stover (581 snaps), LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps), DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps), DE J.T. Tuimoloau (621 snaps). But if there’s one positive sign for the Buckeyes, it’s that each of these guys has been practicing during bowl preparations and is with the team in Arlington.

Injury news: S Lathan Ransom (486 snaps/75.3 cover grade) started every game this season until suffering an injury in Week 9. He has not been able to return to the field and is questionable for the bowl game.

Coaching News: HC Ryan Day is a career 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Whether or not the Buckeyes close as one in this game is going to come entirely down to how many of the potential opt-outs decide to play.

Missouri Tigers

• WR Demariyon Houston | 65 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL EJ Ndoma-Ogar | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Van Erickson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Carmycah Glass | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL DJ Wesolak | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Dameon Wilson | 45 snaps | Transfer portal

Missouri has avoided significant opt-outs as well as any P5 program playing in a non-CFP game.

Injury news: CB Ennis Rakestraw (466 snaps) is questionable with a groin injury. All-SEC second-team linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper (563 snaps) is also questionable with the ankle injury that cost him the last two games of the regular season. Both are NFL Draft hopefuls, potentially clouding the situation. Of the two, HC Eli Drinkwitz seems far more confident that Hopper will be playing in this game. That would be a welcome development with one starter from that unit, LB Chad Bailey (197 snaps), already OFY. Rakestraw and Kris Abrams-Draine are one of the best CB duos in America – each is holding a Senior Bowl invite. CB3 Dreyden Norwood, who would start in place of Rakestraw if he’s injured, is more worker-bee than standout.

Coaching News: HC Eliah Drinkwitz is 2-0 ATS in bowl games.

Penn State vs. Ole Miss

Peach Bowl | Atlanta, GA

Saturday, December 30 | 12:00p | ESPN

Total: 48.5 | ATL: PSU -2.2 | ATT: 59.1

Penn State Nittany Lions

• WR Cristian Driver | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Chop Robinson | 303 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Jace Tutty | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Johnny Dixon | 497 snaps | NFL Draft
• P Alex Bacchetta | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

EDGE Robinson is a devastating pass-rusher, and a potential Round 1 pick. He confirmed in his declaration announcement that he will not play in this game.

CB Johnny Dixon, out of eligibility, decided to start his draft process early by opting-out of this game. He recently accepted a Senior Bowl invite. Over 31 targets, Dixon allowed a 21-244-0 receiving line. He was an All-Big Ten third-team selection in 2023. Penn State CB coach Terry Smith said in September that Dixon was “going to be drafted very high.”

Bacchetta was PSU’s backup punter. The writing was on the wall with the NCAA granting starting P Riley Thompson, an Aussie who was a 2022 Freshman All-American, two more years of eligibility.

Other opt-out news: LT Olu Fashanu (722 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft and is a potential top-10 pick. Fashanu said in a statement that he would be with the team for this game. He has been practicing with the team in advance of this game. He could still elect not to play, but many believe he’ll log at least some snaps. “Fashanu likely will play limited reps in the game,” reported Sports Illustrated on Dec. 23. Fashanu was the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year and a consensus All-American.

TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps) declared for the NFL Draft but was very clear that he intends to play in this game. It’s possible he will play decreased snaps. Johnson had 325 yards and a career-high six TD in 2023.

Penn State star CBs Kalen King (481 snaps) announced he will play in this game, a big development with CB Dixon out the door.

Injury news: WR Harrison Wallace (21 targets/61.0 PFF overall grade) battled injuries all year, playing in six games with his final appearance coming in Week 9 when he ran four routes before departing.

Coaching News: Penn State will have interim coordinators on both sides for the bowl game. Duke hired PSU DC Manny Diaz – a semifinalist for the Broyles Award – as HC. Diaz’s Nittany Lion defense leads the NCAA with a streak of 17-straight games holding opponents to 24-points-or-less. PSU hired former Indiana HC Tom Allen to replace Diaz, but Allen won’t be coaching in the bowl. Instead, PSU has named Anthony Poindexter and Robb Smith interim co-DCs for the bowl.

Offensively, PSU fired OC Mike Yurcich on Nov. 12 after the 24-15 loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions hired former Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to replace him. During Peach Bowl preparations and the game itself, Kotelnicki will be with the team, but only in what the Nittany Lions deemed “an observatory role.”

PSU went 2-0 in the final two games with interim co-OCs Ja’Quan Seider and Ty Howle. That pair will once again call plays in the Peach Bowl.

While PSU’s offense struggled this year, HC James Franklin’s teams have a track record of going over the total in bowl season. In Franklin’s 11 career bowl games, nine have gone over the total. Franklin himself is a career 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

Ole Miss Rebels

• QB Spencer Sanders | 67 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Rayf Vinson | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Bralon Brown | 56 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR JJ Henry | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Kyrinn Heath | 121 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Michael Trigg | 79 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Cedric Melton | 27 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Cedric Johnson | 526 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Reginald Hughes | 40 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Isheem Young| 130 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Demarko Williams | 153 snaps | Transfer portal

QB2 Sanders was deemed academically ineligible following the fall semester. He is not able to participate in the Peach Bowl, and will begin his NFL Draft prep.

EDGE Johnson, who recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, had 5.5 sacks this year and 19 in his career. He’s a solid pass-rusher, but not as effective against the run.

Other opt-out news: QB1 Jaxson Dart will start. He’s been emphatic about that. He just won’t answer questions about his future until after the game, stating: “We’re going to take that decision as a family decision, and there’s a time and place for that. Right now, I’m fully just focused on the bowl game and winning this game.”

Injury news: Starting RT Micah Pettus (608 snaps/63.3 overall grade) is out for the year after being injured in Ole Miss’ Week 10 contest against Texas A&M. WR Zakhari Franklin has had knee issues all season long and hasn’t suited up since Week 10 when he ran just three routes before leaving the game.

Coaching News: Since 2012, all five bowl games that HC Lane Kiffin led a team into went under the total. The Rebels are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 bowl games – with six-straight going under – though Kiffin is a modest 2-4 ATS in bowls as HC. One of Kiffin’s analysts, Sterlin Gilbert, a former FBS OC, left to become Cal’s new QB coach. TE coach John David Baker left to become ECU’s new OC.

Auburn vs. Maryland

Music City Bowl | Nashville, TN

Saturday, December 30 | 2:00p | ABC

Total: 47.5 | ATL: Auburn -4.0 | ATT: 49.6

Auburn Tigers

• WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. | 312 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Omari Kelly | 131 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jyaire Shorter | 87 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Tyler Fromm | 151 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Enyce Sledge | 11 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Stephen Johnson | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Marcus Harris | snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Stephen Sings | 75 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB DJ James | 691 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Nehemiah Pritchett | 450 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Marquise Gilbert | 42 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Zion Puckett | 587 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Jaylin Simpson | 650 snaps | NFL Draft

DL James broke out in 2023 with 11 TFL and seven sacks. He was also amongst the highest-graded PFF interior run-defenders in the nation.

It also appears that Auburn will be without four starters in the secondary. That’s concerning on its face. But the devastation is softened by Maryland not having QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa — Maryland reverts to a run-heavy attack with QB2 Billy Edwards in.

CB James, who opted-out to begin his NFL Draft process, was a strong starter who posted an 83.8 PFF grade (No. 29 nationally). He was also No. 9 nationally in coverage grade. James is a potential Day 2 pick.

The starter across from James, CB Pritchett, likewise accepted a 2024 Reese’s Senior Bowl invitation and is opting-out to begin his preparations. Pritchett, a three-year starter, was  limited to seven games due to injury this fall.

HC Hugh Freeze also strongly insinuated in the days leading up to this game that starting safeties Jaylin Simpson (88.7 cover grade) and Zion Puckett (63.8 PFF grade) would skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

Injury news: Starting EDGE Mosiah Nasili-Kite (176 snaps) was lost in Week 5 to an injury presumed to be season-ending.

Coaching News: First-year HC Hugh Freeze went 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games at his previous stops. Auburn analyst Kendall Simmons, a former NFL standout, left to become MTSU’s new OL coach. DB coach Wes McGriff was transitioned to an off-field role during the regular season to address a “personal matter.”

Maryland Terrapins

• QB Taulia Tagovailoa | 780 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Antwain Littleton II | 244 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Tyrese Chambers | 122 snaps | NFL Draft
• TE Corey Dyches | 467 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Rico Walker | 138 snaps | Transfer portal
• OL Ja’Kavion Nonar | 13 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Riyad Wilmot | 180 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jaishawn Barham | 478 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Tarheeb Still | 574 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Corey Coley Jr. | 305 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Gavin Gibson | 118 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Tamarcus Cooley | 23 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Taulia Tagovailoa opted-out on Dec. 19. He finishes his career as the Terps’ all-time leading passer. It goes without saying that this is an enormous loss. This line shifted from Auburn -2.5 to Auburn -6 within 20 minutes of that news hitting the wire.

Maryland is expected to go with a QB platoon of veteran QB Bill Edwards and freshman QB Cam Edge in the bowl game. That pair is expected to compete with NC State transfer QB M.J. Morris for the 2024 QB1 gig next summer.

RB2 Littleton’s defection elevates Colby McDonald to backup RB duties in this game behind Roman Hemby.

Starting LB Barham transferred to Michigan.

Other opt-out news: OL DJ Glaze and DB Beau Brade are heading to the NFL Draft, but both said they will play in this game.

Coaching News: HC Mike Locksley is a perfect 2-0 ATS in bowls.

Georgia vs. Florida State

Orange Bowl | Miami, FL

Saturday, December 30 | 4:00p | ESPN

Total: 44.5 | ATL: UGA -25.1 | ATT: 47.6

Georgia Bulldogs

• QB Brock Vandagriff | 55 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jackson Meeks | 85 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR/PR Mekhi Mews | 85 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Zeed Hayes | 21 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Brock Bowers | 520 snaps | NFL Draft
• OT Amarius Mims | 297 snaps | NFL Draft
• OT Austin Blaske | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Jonathan Jefferson | 67 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE CJ Madden | 49 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Darris Smith | 39 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Marvin Jones Jr. | 247 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Xavian Sorey | 188 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB EJ Lightsey | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson | 336 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Nyland Green | 93 snaps | Transfer portal

QB2 Vandagriff announced his transfer to Kentucky on Dec. 6. The No. 37 overall recruit in 2021, Vandagriff attempted 18 passes in 2023 as Carson Beck’s backup. ​​Gunner Stockton will be QB2 for the bowl game.

Superstar TE Brock Bowers and stud OT Amarius Mims both did not travel with the team to this game. Though no official announcement has been made, they are both presumed out. Bowers did not appear to be 100-percent healthy in the SEC title game after coming back from a high-ankle sprain. Mims left that game after aggravating his own high-ankle sprain.

Georgia HC Kirby Smart said the Bulldogs don’t have many healthy opt-outs for the Orange Bowl. “Right now we’ve got our guys that are healthy playing. Guys that are completely healthy cleared to play, they’ve all said they’re going to play,” Smart said on Dec. 27.

Other opt-out news: Georgia has a number of potential opt-outs. The list of expected declarees for the NFL Draft on the roster includes TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps), WR Ladd McConkey, OG Tate Ratledge, OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps), C Sedrick Van Pran (821 snaps), DT Nazir Stackhouse (388 snaps), CB Kamari Lassiter (678 snaps), and S Javon Bullard (555 snaps).

Injury news: WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps/23 recs/383 yards/16.7 YPC) missed the final two games with a foot issue. Superstar TE Brock Bowers missed the final game of the season and was limited in the SEC Championship Game. Perhaps most importantly, OT Amarius Mims left the SEC Title game which could affect his decision whether or not to opt-out.

Coaching News: HC Kirby Smart is a career 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. DB coach Fran Brown left to become Syracuse’s new HC.

Florida State Seminoles

• QB Tate Rodemaker | 141 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB AJ Duffy | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB CJ Campbell | 43 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Trey Benson | 413 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Rodney Hill | snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Johnny Wilson | 459 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Winston Wright | 29 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Keon Coleman | 672 snaps | NFL Draft
• TE Jaheim Bell | 451 snaps | NFL Draft
• TE Markeston Douglas | 210 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Preston Daniel | 82 snaps | Transfer portal
• iOL Qae’shon Sapp | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• OL Bless Harris | 390 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Daughtry Richardson | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
• OT Thomas Shrader | 47 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT Malcolm Ray | 246 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT Fabien Lovett | 337 snaps | NFL Draft
• DT Joshua Farmer | 427 snaps | Transfer portal
• DT Ayobami Tifase | 20 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Jared Verse | 451 snaps | NFL Draft
• EDGE Patrick Payton | 466 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Dylan Brown-Turner | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB DJ Lundy | 403 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Renardo Green | 651 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Jarrian Jones | 453 snaps | NFL Draft
• S Akeem Dent | 446 snaps | NFL Draft

At current count, 23 players on Florida State have opted-out of this game! That doesn’t count injuries, such as the one to QB Jordan Travis.

Things are so bad that FSU shifted players to other positions to flesh out its depth chart in advance of this game — for example, WRs Ja’Khi Douglas and Joshua Burrell are listed as RBs for the bowl.

QB2 Rodemaker opted-out on Christmas Day. He would have started this game with QB1 Jordan Travis OFY with a leg injury (below). This means that freshman QB3 Brock Glenn, who started against Louisville in the ACC Championship Game, will draw the start. Glenn completed 8-of-21 passes for 55 yards in that game. It also means that FSU does not have an scholarship QB on the roster to back up Glenn (since QB4 AJ Duffy is also in the portal).

This is a truly hairy situation — the Seminoles will dress walk-ons Dylan McNamara and Michael Grant as the immediate backups to Glenn. Though, really, if Glenn goes down, FSU is likely go to Wildcat the rest of the game. You’re going to see a heavy-dose of that as is, as you did against the Cardinals. Wildcat was by far and away FSU’s most efficient source of offense in that game.

RB1 Benson, who is Mel Kiper’s No. 2 draft-eligible RB, ran for 905 yards and 14 TD this season.

WR Wilson is a 6-foot-7 matchup nightmare. His absence is notable for multiple reasons. Not only a strong starter, Wilson was also very clearly QB2 Rodemaker’s favorite target. Fellow star WR Keon Coleman, a potential Round 1 pick who led the ACC with 11 TD, had 50 catches for 658 yards in his only season in Tallahassee.

TE Bell is listed No. 3 on Mel Kiper’s FB/H-Back position rankings.

EDGE Verse could have been a first-rounder last spring, but he elected to return for one final season. He confirmed he will skip this game to begin his NFL Draft preparations.

Other opt-out news: DB Jarrian Jones declared for the NFL Draft, but says he will play in this game.

Injury news: QB Jordan Travis suffered a gruesome leg injury which has pressed backup QB Tate Rodemaker into the starting role. Rodemaker has gone 32-for-56 (57%) for 510 passing yards, 9.1 yards per pass attempt and a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far in 2023.

Coaching News: HC Mike Norvell is a career 0-5 ATS in bowl games. DC Adam Fuller, who received interest from Texas A&M, ultimately inked a new three-year contract to stay in Tallahassee.

Wyoming vs. Toledo

Arizona Bowl | Tucson, AZ

Saturday, December 30 | 4:30p | Barstool

Total: 44.6 | ATL: Wyoming -5.8 | ATT: 44.1

Toledo Rockets

• QB Dequan Finn | 815 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Peny Boone | snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Micah Kelly | 12 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Jaret Frantz | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Vinnie Sciury | 838 snaps | Transfer portal
• P Jonathon Batzke | 0 snaps | Transfer portal

A dual-threat QB who is coming off his best passing season, Finn completed 63% of his passes for 2,660 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt and a 22-to-9 ratio. He handled the rush extremely well as is evidenced by his 8.4% pressure-to-sack rate, and his 78.9 PFF overall grade is a 5.7 point increase over the previous season.

RB Boone, who led the MAC in rushing yards, entered the transfer portal and has already released his top-3 list of potential suitors. All signs point to him being out.

Starting OG Sciury was picked up in the portal by Texas Tech after posting a superb 89.4 PFF pass blocking grade and allowing just one sack on 412 pass block reps this season. He was one of the G5’s best interior offensive linemen in 2023.

Other opt-out news: CB1 Quinyon Mitchell is the top cornerback at the G5 level and could choose to opt out of the bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. Mitchell allowed just 27 receptions on 62 targets for a 43.5% catch rate, 14 PBU and a sterling 51.1 NFL passer rating when targeted.

Coaching News: HC Jason Candle is 0-5 ATS in bowl games as permanent HC. The Rockets won their first bowl game SU under Candle last year against Liberty. Interestingly, that came in the Boca Raton Bowl – the game Candle won as interim HC in 2015 over Temple before taking over the gig permanently.

Wyoming Cowboys

• RB DQ James | 66 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Keelan Cox | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Kolbey Taylor | 536 snaps | Transfer portal

Starting CB Taylor missed the last two games of the regular season, so Wyoming at least has recent experience making-do without him.

Injury news: RT Caden Barnett started the first 10 games before going down with an injury against UNLV in Week 11. He was barely able to play over the final two games, logging just eight total reps, but the extra recovery time is encouraging for his availability.

Coaching News: HC Craig Bohl announced that he will retire after this game. Bohl, one of the most successful coaches in program history, made six bowl games in 10 seasons. He’s 4-0-1 ATS in his previous five trips. Bohl produced eight NFL Draft picks at Wyoming, including QB Josh Allen and LB Logan Wilson. Wyoming went 7-0 SU at home in 2023, in what turned out to be Bohl’s final regular season. Wyoming promoted DC/safeties coach Jay Sawvel to permanent HC and made it official with a five-year, $5.8 million deal. Sawvel has no previous head coaching experience. Sawvel was previously DC at Minnesota and Wake Forest. OC Tim Polasek was hired as FCS NDSU’s new HC.

LSU vs. Wisconsin

ReliaQuest Bowl | Tampa, FL

Monday, January 1 | 12:00p | ESPN2

Total: 57.0 | ATL: LSU -7.7 | ATT: 62.0

LSU Tigers

• QB Jayden Daniels | 702 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Amoni Goodwin | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Tre Bradford | 14 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Kevonte Bradford | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• TE Jackson McGohan | 8 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Marlon Martinez | 75 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Tygee Hill | 45 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Bryce Langston | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Quency Wiggins | 16 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Lawrence Welch | 96 snaps | Transfer portal

Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out of this game on Dec. 18. Expected but nonetheless devastating. If we can slap lipstick on the pig, it’s that LSU QB2 Garrett Nussmeier has pedigree, experience, and a good arm. The offense be overhauled — Nussmeier’s legs are a negative, not the veritable weapon that Daniels’ are. Daniels’ game soared to new heights this fall because he learned — at long last — to only use those legs when he couldn’t identify a target he liked. Nussmeier is a cooked goose in those scenarios.

Nussmeier, it also must be said, is a legitimate downgrade in the pocket. Over his career, Nussmeier has logged an 8/6 TD/INT rate on 56.3% completions and a 7.6 YPA. If you’re looking for reasons to believe, here’s one: LSU’s portal signing of Vanderbilt QB AJ Swann is a flashing neon sign that they’re handing the 2024 job to Nussmeier barring a Summer 2024 flat-face, indicative of at least a healthy dollop of internal belief in the kid’s viability. For this game and beyond.

But will Nussmeier be working with the same elite targets Daniels benefitted from?

Other opt-out news: There remains several potential opt-outs on LSU’s roster. Namely, Daniels’ partners-in-crime. Biletnikoff Award Finalist WR Malik Nabers (86 recs/1,546 yards) and fellow stud WR Brian Thomas Jr. (60 recs/1,079 yards) are both expected to declare for the draft, but are each listed as playing on the team’s depth chart.

DT Maason Smith (532 snaps/74.8 pass rush grade), another NFL Draft hopeful, is listed as a starter on the bowl depth chart and expected to play.

Injury news: DT Mekhi Wingo (344 snaps/79.2 overall grade) sustained what was thought to be a potentially season-ending injury in Week 8 — however, he has been practicing and expects to play in the bowl. CB Duce Chestnut (81 snaps), CB Denver Harris (217 snaps) and CB Zy Alexander (418 snaps) will all miss the game. CB Sage Ryan (620 snaps), CB Javien Toviano and CB Ashton Stamps have been taking first-team reps at corner. Ryan had initially entered the portal, but reversed course in the days leading up to Christmas, announcing he’d return to LSU next season. RB John Emery is listed as being “out” for this game according to LSU’s pre-bowl depth chart release. Starting RB Logan Diggs will lead a backfield committee that will include Kaleb Jackson, Noah Cain and Josh Williams. OL Zalance Heard did not travel with the team and is out.

Coaching News: HC Brian Kelly is 6-9 ATS in bowl games. OC Mike Denbrock left to take the OC position at Notre Dame. QBs coach Joe Sloan and WRs coach Cortez Hankton will be splitting OC duties and calling plays.

Wisconsin Badgers

• QB Myles Burkett | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Braelon Allen | 488 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Chimere Dike | 550 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Skyler Bell | 375 snaps | Transfer portal
• OG Trey Wedig | 252 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Tanor Bortolini | 868 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Dylan Barrett | 6 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Rodas Johnson | 432 snaps | Transfer portal
• DE Darian Varner | 122 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Jordan Turner | 554 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Amaun Williams | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jason Maitre | 646 snaps | NFL Draft

RB Allen, C Bortolini, and CB Maitre are confirmed out for this game.

Due to RB1 Allen’s defection and RB2 Chez Mellusi’s injury, RB3 Jackson Acker (198 snaps) will lead the backfield with RB4 Cade Yacamelli working in. Yacamelli got more playing time down the stretch due to Wisconsin’s injuries at the position, with 22 of his 33 touches coming in November. The 6-foot, 213-pounder was recruited to Wisconsin as a receiver.

C Bortolini took all but six of Wisconsin’s offensive snaps this year at center. Cincinnati transfer Jake Renfro, who missed last season with a knee injury, hasn’t played yet in 2023 while recovering from a foot injury in camp. But he is reportedly healthy enough to potentially draw the start in this game.

CB Jason Maitre was a starter who announced a similar opt-out of this game to start his NFL Draft prep. Maitre didn’t have the best season, allowing a 70.6% reception percentage while coughing up a team-high 402 receiving yards on targets.

Injury news: WR Bryson Green (547 snaps) and CB Alexander Smith (382 snaps) haven’t played since Week 11 against Northwestern. Both are practicing though and listed on the team’s projected depth chart. RB2 Chez Mellusi (112 snaps) is out for the year with a broken ankle.

Coaching News: In HC Luke Fickell’s six career bowl games, five have gone under the total. Fickell is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in those games.

Oregon vs. Liberty

Fiesta Bowl | Glendale, AZ

Monday, January 1 | 1:00p | ESPN

Total: 67.5 | ATL: Oregon -12.6 | ATT: 69.3

Oregon Ducks

• QB Ty Thompson | 97 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Troy Franklin | 722 snaps | NFL Draft
• WR Kris Hutson | 22 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Josh Delgado | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Ashton Cozart | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• C Jackson Powers-Johnson | 829 snaps | NFL Draft
• DL Tevita Pome’e | 4 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Khyree Jackson | 520 snaps | NFL Draft
• CB Bryan Addison | 109 snaps | Transfer portal
• DB Trikweze Bridges | 205 snaps | Transfer portal

Star WR Troy Franklin is a potential R1 NFL Draft selection who is choosing to eschew playing in the contest to begin NFL Combine training. Veteran Alabama transfer Treshon Holden (407 snaps/66.6 overall grade) will draw the start, but rising five-star freshman WR Jurrion Dickey will see plenty of action as well.

C1 Powers-Johnson won the Rimington Trophy – nation’s top center – in 2023. PFF grading ranked him No. 1 among all FBS centers in pass-blocking grade (91.3), run-blocking grade (85.2), and overall grade (84.6). ESPN’s Mel Kiper ranks him No. 3 among draft-eligible centers. Powers-Johnson was a key contributor to an Oregon offensive line that was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award, and will be replaced by promising freshman C Iapani Laloulu who recorded 348 snaps with a rock solid 80.2 pass block grade.

Jackson was Oregon’s CB1, a 2023 First-Team All-Pac-12 honoree by both the coaches and AP. Jackson did this – piling up seven breakups and three INT this season – despite playing through a shoulder injury most of the campaign. He missed the Washington State win in mid-October, but returned to start the last six games with a brace on his shoulder. He left multiple games down the stretch after aggravating the issue, making his decision not to play in this game a no-brainer. CB Dontae Manning (339 snaps/57.9 defensive grade) will step in to start in Jackson’s place.

Other opt-out news: Ducks HC Dan Lanning says QB1 Bo Nix and RB1 Bucky Irving will play in this game, a huge development for Oregon.

The Ducks are still awaiting declaration/opt-out clarifications from a laundry list of draft-eligible starters including RT Ajani Cornelius (834 snaps), DL Brandon Dorlus (564 snaps), EDGE Jordan Burch (418 snaps), and DB Tysheem Johnson (748 snaps).

Injury news: EDGE Jordan Burch, a potential opt-out, left the Pac-12 title game early with a knee injury. This injury could hamper his status even if he ultimately decides to participate in the game. Burch has given no indication that he will opt out. WR/KR Gary Bryant Jr. (511 snaps) missed the loss to Washington in the Pac-12 title game, but has been deemed probable for the bowl game. Bryant would become a major contributor if Franklin and/or Johnson ultimately decide to opt-out.

Backup RB Noah Whittington (64 snaps) was lost for the season to a foot injury in early-October. Seldom-used backup WR Josh Delgado (three receptions since 2020) is OFY with a leg injury.

Coaching News: HC Dan Lanning, who signed a six-year, $45 million contract extension recently, failed to cover in his only previous bowl game. Oregon graduate assistant Cutter Leftwich left to become North Texas’ new OL coach. Oregon’s offensive line was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award this season.

Liberty Flames

• QB Jonathan Bennett | 31 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Tysheik Galloway | 118 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Kendy Charles | 336 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Bryan Whitehead II | 238 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Preston Hodge | 690 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jaylon Jimmerson | 160 snaps | Transfer portal

DL Charles hasn’t played since mid-November. Second-year starting slot corner Hodge allowed a 58% catch rate with 10 PBU and two interceptions for a scintillating 90.0 cover grade this year. His departure is a notable loss for the Flames who will ask slot CB/safety Brylan Green (531 snaps/84.6 defensive grade) to pick up the slack in Hodge’s place.

Injury news: LB Jerome Jolly Jr. (447 snaps) and S A’Khori Jones (269 snaps) were unable to play against Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship. Jolly Jr. began the year as a starter, but has since moved to a backup role over the second half of the season, posting a 64.2 PFF defensive grade. Jones is a rotational player who has been hampered by an unacceptable 33% missed tackle rate.

Coaching News: HC Jamey Chadwell went 0-2 ATS in his two bowls as Coastal Carolina’s HC.

Tennessee vs. Iowa

Citrus Bowl | Orlando, FL

Monday, January 1 | 1:00p | ABC

Total: 36.5 | ATL: Tennessee -8.2 | ATT: 33.4

Tennessee Volunteers

• QB Joe Milton | 772 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Jabari Small | 227 snaps | NFL Draft
• RB Jaylen Wright | 325 snaps | NFL Draft
• iOL Maurice Clipper Jr. | 19 snaps | Transfer portal
• LG Addison Nichols | 116 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Tyler Baron | 444 snaps | Transfer portal
• LB Mekhi Bigelow | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Warren Burrell | 166 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Brandon Turnage | 149 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Jack Luttrell | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Doneiko Slaughter | 387 snaps | Transfer portal
• DB Tamarion McDonald | 486 snaps | Transfer portal
• S De’Shawn Rucker | 1 snap | Transfer portal
• S Wesley Walker | 636 snaps | Transfer portal

QB1 Milton announced on Dec. 27 that he would skip this game to begin preparing for the NFL draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper ranks Milton as the No. 10 QB in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The sixth-year senior threw for 2,813 yards with a 20/5 TD/INT ratio this fall.

The Vols will turn to five-star freshman QB2 Nico Iamaleava. Per 247Sports’ recruiting rankings, only Texas QB Arch Manning was rated higher in the 2023 recruiting class. In four mop-up appearances during the regular season, Iamaleava completed 16-of-26 attempts for 163 yards and a TD. He has a stiff first test. Iowa’s defense has held opponents to fewer than 400 yards in 27-consecutive games. Look for Heupel to try to get Iamaleava comfortable with with a steady diet of screens to the speedy WR Squirrel White.

RB Wright, a former Feldman Freak Lister, opted-out of this game to begin his NFL Draft preparations. Wright broke out with 1,013 yards in 2023. He had an elite 91.0 PFF grade during the regular season.

RBs Jabari Small also declared for the NFL Draft. He lagged behind at a devilish 66.6.

That leaves Dylan Sampson as the last man standing in the former three-man rotation for snaps in the bowl game. Sampson had an 81.8 PFF grade during the regular season. We’re also going to see a lot more of true freshman Cam Seldon, who’s going to be elevated to RB2 duties in this game.

Running back is the problematic opt-out situation on the offense. Secondary is the problematic opt-out situation on the other side — seven defensive backs are in the portal, and an eighth is OFY with injury.

Tamarion McDonald was the starting nickel. He logged a solid 76.3 PFF grade this fall. Starting FS Walker had a 70.5 PFF grade. The other five in the portal are backups.

Tennessee’s bowl secondary in the bowl will have two above-average starters in CB Gabe Jeudy-Lally and S Jaylen McCollough. After that, it starts to get hairy in terms of experience, quality, and depth. Youngster CB Rickey Gibson is getting thrust into action across from GJL. If there’s on potential saving grace, it’s that Iowa is one of the FBS’ worst passing teams.

Injury news: Tennessee has an extensive list of players out for the year with injuries. That M*A*S*H* unit includes WR Dont’e Thornton (214 snaps), WR Bru McCoy (231 snaps), LB Arion Carter (128 snaps), LB Keenan Pili (31 snaps), and CB Kamal Hadden (311 snaps). Hadden was the CB1 prior to going down (85.7 PFF grade).

Several other players missed the season finale, including OG Javontez Spraggins (699 snaps), OG Andrej Karic (266 snaps), EDGE Roman Harrison (301 snaps), DL Omarr Norman-Lott (235 snaps), and

Coaching News: HC Josh Heupel is a career 2-3 ATS in bowls.

Iowa Hawkeyes

• QB Spencer Petras | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• QB Joey Labas | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Diante Vines | 344 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Anterio Thompson | 2 snaps | Transfer portal
• EDGE Jackson Filer | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Terrell Crosby | 51 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Myles Norwood | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• CB Brenden Deasfernandes | 14 snaps | Transfer portal

Labas functioned as QB3 this fall. He went 14-of-24 for 139 yards and a TD in the Music City Bowl against Kentucky last year, but never seriously threatened QB2 Deacon Hill for playing time this fall following QB1 Cade McNamara’s season-ending injury. Petras, who was Iowa’s starter prior to a season-ending injury in 2022, didn’t play this season as he rehabbed. Petras is looking to revitalize his football career at Utah State.

Other opt-out news: A report from The Athletic’s Scott Dochterman on Dec. 18 stated, “No healthy Iowa players are planning to opt out of the Citrus Bowl.”

Injury news: The Hawkeyes were decimated by injuries during the regular season. Lost for the season were numerous key contributors: QB1 Cade McNamara (206 snaps), TE1 Luke Lachey (120 snaps), TE2 Erick All (251 snaps), and star DB/PR Cooper DeJean (709 snaps). Backup CB TJ Hall hasn’t played since late-September and is likely OFY. Backup OG Beau Stephens (70 snaps) will miss the bowl game with an injury. RT Gennings Dunker, the two-time reigning champion hay bale tosser at Solon Beef Days, missed the Big 10 title game but will return for the bowl.

Coaching News: HC Kirk Ferentz is 13-6-1 ATS all-time in bowl games. He’s 4-0-1 ATS in his last five. This will be the last game for OC Brian Ferentz, who announced in late-October that he would step down following this game.

Michigan vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl (CFP Semi) | Pasadena, CA

Monday, January 1 | 5:00p | ESPN

Total: 44.5 | ATL: Michigan -5.9 | ATT: 51.4

Michigan Wolverines

• RB CJ Stokes | 5 snaps | Transfer portal
• RB Leon Franklin | 23 snaps | Transfer portal

Injury news: Stud RG Zak Zinter, a unanimous All-American, suffered a season-ending broken tibia and fibia against Ohio State. Zinter (649 reps) was sporting a 76.6 PFF overall grade at the time of his injury. He’s regarded as one of the nation’s best interior offensive linemen.

Coaching News: HC Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 SU and ATS over his last six bowl games. Harbaugh covered his first three bowl games, all at Stanford. The Wolverines fired LB coach Chris Partridge during the regular season. CB Will Johnson started the final nine games of the season before also sustaining an injury against Ohio State, causing Johnson to miss the B10 Championship game. He earned a very respectable 83.3 PFF cover grade while allowing a 50% catch rate, so the Wolverines would love to have his services for the big tilt against Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide

• QB Tyler Buchner | 39 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Ja’Corey Brooks | 142 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Thaiu Jones-Bell | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Isaiah Hastings | 0 snaps | Transfer portal
• DL Anquin Barnes | 8 snaps | Transfer Portal

QB Tyler Buchner (39 snaps) is leaving Alabama after the season, but will remain with the Tide for the CFP. In a rare Transfer portal announcement, Buchner announced he will play lacrosse next year. Reportedly, Buchner intends to return to his initial school, Notre Dame, to join the lacrosse team. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Buchner has not ruled out a return to football in the future. Buchner started the Week 3 game against USF. His struggles that day led the Tide back to QB Jalen Milroe. In an interesting bit of symmetry, Arizona State QB Drew Pyne is also transferring back to Notre Dame – but not to play football. Pyne will finish up his degree as a regular student.

WR Brooks has been in the doghouse for two seasons and hadn’t stepped on the field since Week 7. His loss was expected. Alabama will get by with a WR corps led by Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond in the CFP.

Injury news: RB1 Jase McClellan (401 snaps) missed the SEC Championship with a foot injury but has been deemed “probable” for this game. He leads the Tide with 825 rushing yards. CB1 Kool-Aid McKinstry (788 snaps) is also probable for the Rose Bowl after he left the SEC title game win over Georgia with a minor concussion.

Coaching News: HC Nick Saban is 12-8 ATS in bowl games and 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog at Alabama. Alabama ST coordinator/OLB coach Coleman Hutzler left to become Mississippi State’s new DC.

Texas vs. Washington

Sugar Bowl (CFP Semi) | New Orleans, LA

Monday, January 1 | 8:45p | ESPN

Total: 63.5 | ATL: Texas -5.5 | ATT: 69.6

Texas Longhorns

• QB Maalik Murphy | 177 snaps | Transfer portal
• WR Isaiah Neyor | 8 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Jaden Catalon | 142 snaps | Transfer portal
• S BJ Allen Jr. | 3 snaps | Transfer portal
• S Xavion Brice | 14 snaps | Transfer portal

QB2 Murphy’s defection for the portal leaves true freshman QB3 Arch Manning as QB1 Quinn Ewers’ backup for this game. That’s probably a wash. Murphy has potential but didn’t show much during his 177-rep audition when Ewers went down in the fall.

WR Neyor was a celebrated portal addition two years ago who missed the entire 2022 season with injury and then scarcely saw the field upon his return.

Other opt-out news: HC Steve Sarkisian made an open offer to all players in the portal that they could remain with the team through the end of the CFP run. WR Casey Cain, iOL Sawyer Gorem-Welch, and S Larry Turner-Gooden took him up on that. The biggest name who did not was QB2 Murphy. Murphy explained that he wanted to stay with the team, but felt that he couldn’t due to the December calendar and his desire to participate in spring ball at his new school and start next season. He transferred to Duke, where classes start a mere two days after the natty.

Injury news: RB1 Jonathon Brooks (450 snaps) tore his ACL in November. He rushed for  1,139 yards and 10 TD on 6.1 YPC prior to going down. RB2 CJ Baxter Jr. averages 4.6 YPC. Baxter breaks tackles at exactly half the rate that Brooks did while averaging a half-yard less before contact per carry. Jaydon Blue, Keilan Robinson, and Savion Red mix-and-match in behind Baxter.

It should also be noted that WR Xavier Worthy was seen on crutches after the Big 12 Championship, but HC Sarkisian expressed confidence that Worthy and CB Ryan Watts (376 snaps) will be full participants against Washington. Sark has said the same about previously banged-up TE JT Sanders and RT Christian Jones.

Coaching News: HC Steve Sarkisian is a career 2-3 ATS in bowls. LB coach Jeff Choate is Nevada’s new HC, though he will will stay with Texas through the CFP.

Washington Huskies

• CB Vincent Nunley | 213 snaps | Transfer portal

Other opt-out news: QB2 Dylan Morris (53 snaps) is in the transfer portal, but he will stay with the team through the CFP to back up QB1 Michael Penix.

Injury news: RB Dillon Johnson said on Dec. 28 that he’s feeling “a lot better” after he played the last three games of the season with a foot injury.

Coaching News: As an underdog, HC Kalen DeBeor is 4-0 SU at Washington and 7-1 ATS career. He won and covered the only bowl game he’s ever been HC in – last year’s 27-20 win over these same Texas Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl. DB coach Eric Schmidt has taken the DC role at San Diego State, it is believed he’ll coach through the CFP but no official announcement.

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