College Football Futures: Could Army or Navy Make the Playoff?
There was a time when Army and Navy were considered NCAA Football heavyweights. That was over 80 years ago, but the college football landscape was dramatically different compared to today. Depending on how the season plays out, one could make the playoffs.
What needs to occur for that to happen? Since the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champions gets an automatic bid, one must win the AAC and have a better resume than Boise State. The No. 15 Broncos are heavy favorites to win the Mountain West (-360 via DraftKings Sportsbook).
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Making a Case For Army or Navy to Make the College Football Playoff
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
As we head into Week 8, Army is listed with +2000 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Navy has +2500 odds. That gives the Black Knights a 4.76% chance and Navy a 3.85% shot. In comparison, Boise State’s odds are +100, giving the Broncos a 50% chance.
That may seem like a lot of ground to make up, so how does one of them do it? They have to build a better resume than Boise State, which may not be too hard.
The Broncos are getting plenty of attention because of current Heisman frontrunner Ashton Jeanty, but they don’t have a signature win to hang their hat on. Boise State’s most noteworthy game may be its loss to Oregon. Boise State was a 17.5-point underdog but lost by three points (37-34).
So, yeah, not much of a resume.
Army Black Knights College Football Playoff Resume
How can Army become a higher-ranked conference champion than Boise State? They will need to win the AAC. At the moment, Army has the second-shortest odds at +170 behind Tulane (+150). Should they meet in the title game, the advantage will lie with Army’s top-ranked run game and one of the stingiest defenses in the country.
Next to the conference title, the most important thing will be signature wins. Did they crush soft teams all season or play competitive games against good teams (preferably ranked) and win? At this point in the season, the wins are all over easy teams, but Army has two games coming up that could tip the scales in their favor.
Those games are against No. 12-ranked Notre Dame in a couple of weeks and No. 25-ranked Navy at the end of the season.
Navy Midshipmen College Football Playoff Resume
The path for Navy is similar to that of Army - win the conference and earn signature wins. Their AAC championship odds are the third-best in the conference at +550. The Midshipmen also have an upcoming date vs. No. 12-ranked Notre Dame.
Not only will they boost their resume if they beat Notre Dame, but they’ll weaken Army’s. Notre Dame will slip in the rankings after the loss to Navy, making Army’s win less impressive. While Navy has the second-best rushing attack in the country, next to Army, they do not have a solid defense.
Can One of Them Do It?
For one to have a chance, they will have to win out. As great as a win over Notre Dame and Army/Navy will be, a loss to Charlotte will knock them out of the conversation. While Navy has a solid team, its defense (or lack thereof) will be the Midshipmen’s downfall.
It looks like Army has so much ground to make up with Boise State ranked No. 15, but the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will knock them down a few pegs, making it easier for Army to leapfrog them in the final regular season rankings and claim a spot in the playoffs. Put a few dollars down on Army to make the College Football Playoff at +2000.