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College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: CFP National Championship (Miami vs. Indiana)

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The 2025-26 College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship Game presented by AT&T takes place at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., as the college football season concludes on Monday, January 19th. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.

Let’s build our bankroll with our best college football picks & predictions for the CFP National Championship Game. Good luck with your plays in this epic clash in South Florida.

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College Football Picks & Predictions: CFP National Championship

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit

Miami Hurricanes (+265) vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-330) | O/U 47.5 (-104/-118) 

The Hurricanes (13-2) and the Hoosiers (15-0) play for all of the marbles on the home field of the University of Miami. At first glance, that seems like Miami would be a slam-dunk play, but Indiana has marched through the playoffs with reckless abandon. The Hoosiers are likely to travel well, too, making this seem like an Indiana home game, similar to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, when Indiana fans outnumbered Oregon rather easily.

This is the first time Indiana will play for a national championship on the gridiron, and it really has never been close. The finest seasons for Indiana have been 1945, when the Hoosiers were 9-0-1 under the leadership of Bo McMillin. After he left the program after the 1947 season, a 5-3-1 campaign, the Hoosiers didn’t have a winning season until 1958 under Phil Dickens. That was his lone winning season, and it didn’t win again until John Pont led the Hoosiers to a 9-2 record, and a loss in the Rose Bowl, the program’s only previous appearance in the Granddaddy of them all, until it stomped Alabama this season in the CFP Quarterfinals.

Lee Corso took the reins of the program in 1973, and he had two winning seasons in 10 years, leading the team to a Holiday Bowl win and an 8-4 record in 1979. In 1983, Sam Wyche coached the team for one season, and he went 3-8. The team’s best run of success came under Bill Mallory, and he had six winning seasons from 1987 through 1994, including a pair of bowl wins. A win in the 1991 Copper Bowl under Mallory was the last postseason win until a Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State, and then Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl wins this season.

Needless to say, QB Fernando Mendoza was the first-ever Heisman Trophy winner in the school’s history. In 1989, under Mallory, running back Anthony Thompson finished as the runner-up to Houston’s Andre Ware for the Heisman.

Mendoza threw for five touchdowns in the Peach Bowl victory over Oregon, winning 56-22. And, as mentioned, the Hoosiers pumped Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, with Mendoza throwing three TDs.

Mendoza threw for 3,349 yards while completing 73.0% of his passes for 41 TDs and six interceptions. RB Roman Hemby led the team with 1,060 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry – YPC), while scoring seven times on the ground. RB Kaelon Black rushed for 961 yards (5.7 YPC) with 10 rushing TDs, and RB Khobie Martin had 505 yards (6.5 YPC) with six touchdowns. Mendoza also rushed for 284 yards and six TDs. No one will mistake him for Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson, but he can run if he has to. WR Omar Cooper Jr. had team highs with 64 receptions, 866 yards, and 13 TDs, followed closely by WR Elijah Sarratt, with 62 grabs, 802 yards, and a team-high 15 TDs. WR Charlie Becker is a dependable tertiary option with 30 grabs for 614 yards and four scores.

While a lot of attention is garnered by the offense because of Mendoza, this Indiana defense is special, too. The Hoosiers allowed 15 or fewer points in 12-of-15 games this season, while allowing 24 or fewer points in all 15 outings. It allowed 260.9 total yards per game to rank third in the country, while allowing 75.0 rushing yards and 11.1 points per game, with those two marks ranking second in the country. It allowed 185.9 passing yards per game, too, ranking 23rd.

For Miami, there was a lot of talk about whether or not it would even make the college football playoffs. It didn’t even play in the ACC Championship Game, as Duke and Virginia battled in that game, and it had losses to Louisville at home, and SMU on the road. However, a win in late August over Notre Dame got the Canes into the field, just barely.

Miami has made the most of its opportunity, obviously. It went to Texas A&M, winning 10-3 in a windy afternoon in College Station, flexing its defensive muscle, while covering as a 2.5-point underdog. DL Rueben Bain Jr. had a great game, recording three sacks, while DL Akheem Mesidor had 1.5 sacks. That dynamic duo will try to make life as uncomfortable as possible for Mendoza.

In the Cotton Bowl Classic, Miami topped Ohio State 24-14, as the Hurricanes battered Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin, rattling him with constant pressure, while flustering him with a game-changing pick-six from DB Keionte Scott, who went 72 yards for the touchdown, his second INT for TD on the season.

And, in the Fiesta Bowl, Miami played a higher-scoring game, topping Ole Miss 31-27 in a back-and-forth battle. The Hurricanes were against the ropes late, but QB Carson Beck engineered a sparkling two-minute drill, taking a bootleg three yards unfettered for the game-winning touchdown with 18 ticks left on the clock.

It’s actually quite tempting to take Miami on the moneyline for the chance to nearly triple up. But, Indiana has really shown few signs of slowing down, while Miami could easily have lost all three of its CFP games had one of two bounces gone the other way. The Canes haven’t been nearly as dominant as the Hoosiers. That being said, this game is in South Florida, and Miami will have the comfort of being home, not having to travel, and the familiarity of Hard Rock Stadium to keep it in the game.

Roll with Miami with the points, especially if you can get eight or more. Also, we’re definitely going Under. Both of these defense are hard-hitting, no-nonsense defenses with a tenacious pass rush. Beck and Mendoza will both be running for their lives rather frequently. We’ll go low on the total and we’ll also take Miami with the points at the half, while going low on the total there, too.

If you were to take a seven-point teaser on the big game, that’s a nice play if you’re on the conservative side as a bettor, and you just want a little action.

Picks (full game lines): Miami +8.5 (-115) & Under 47.5 Points (-118)

Picks (1st half lines): Miami +4.5 (-112) & Under 23.5 Points (-110)

*Note: Playing a seven-point teaser, catching Miami +15.5 (-260) and Under 54.5 points (-280) is a decent alternative at (-118).

Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe


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