College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/19)
We have wall-to-wall football on Friday, with the action crescendoing into the College Football Playoff (CFP) opener between No. 9 Alabama and No. 8 Oklahoma. Below, I'll break down all three games from a sports betting angle, touching on the odds, delving into key metrics and providing my top college football picks & predictions.
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Friday's Best College Football Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State (+3.5) vs. Western Michigan (-3.5) | O/U 47.5 (-110/-110)
The slate gets underway bright and early with the Myrtle Beach Bowl, which features a Conference USA-MAC crossover game between Kennesaw State (10-3) and Western Michigan (9-4). Kick-off is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET from Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC.
This is one of the more underrated bowl games this postseason, matching up two programs that just won conference championships last time out. Neither team has been overly exposed to the transfer portal, so we should essentially be in for a best-on-best scenario. With that said, I believe the best way to bet this game is by locking in the under.
These are two run-heavy teams. Western Michigan enters the bowl season ranked eighth in rushing play percentage (65%), while its counterparts are 38th (55.8%). The Broncos typically aren't in a rush to get plays off either, as they're 112th in seconds per play (28.4) and 85th in offensive plays per game (67.3). On the other hand, Western Michigan is solid defensively, conceding only 18.2 points per game (14th). During their current 5-0 stretch, the Broncos are allowing only 17.4 points per contest. Let's play the under in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Bet: Under 47.5 Points (-110)
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis (+3.5) vs. NC State (-3.5) | O/U 56.5 (-105/-115)
The mid-day contest pits Memphis (8-4) against NC State (7-5) in the Gasparilla Bowl from sunny Florida. This contest gets underway at 2:30 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.
I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm playing the over. These are two of the better offenses in the nation, with Memphis ranking 19th in scoring (34.6 points per game) and NC State coming in 46th (30.2 points per game). The Wolfpack will be without top running back Daylan Smothers, but I don't expect his absence to hinder their offense in a major way. Quarterback CJ Bailey should be able to shred this Memphis defense through the air, considering the Tigers are allowing 12.2 yards per pass play (104th).
The big issue with NC State this season was its defense. The unit allowed 28.8 points per game (28.8), while giving up an astronomical 6.2 yards per play (118th). The Wolfpack conceded 12.4 yards per pass play (107th) this year, so the dynamic Brendon Lewis of the Tigers should also find success in the passing attack. The over has cashed at an 80% rate in Memphis' last five games, and that's a trend I expect to continue - give me the over.
Bet: Over 56.5 Points (-105)
College Football Playoff Round 1: No. 9 Alabama (+1.5) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (-1.5) | O/U 41.5 (-104/-118)
The second year of the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) is upon us, and we get started with an SEC rematch between Alabama (10-3) and Oklahoma (10-2). The Sooners took down the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa back on November 15th in a 23-21 win. They're slim 1.5-point home favorites in the CFP rematch. Kick-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK.
I'll back Oklahoma to complete the season sweep of Alabama. For starters, this game will be played in Norman, and the Sooners are an impressive 8-1 straight up (SU) in their last nine home games. They've also dominated the head-to-head series recently, beating the Crimson Tide five out of the last six times.
Ultimately, I trust Oklahoma's defense to rise up and shut down Alabama. Their defense is a legit force this season, ranking seventh in both points allowed per game (13.9) and yards allowed per play (4.2). They're giving up only 2.5 yards per rush attempt (second). I expect the Sooners to stuff the Tide at the line of scrimmage, forcing them into longer third-down situations throughout the game. We've seen Ty Simpson fold like a cheap suit against elite defenses this season, and I'm willing to wager he'll do so on Friday. Give me Oklahoma.
Bet: Oklahoma Sooners -1.5 (-105)