College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Navy vs. Memphis)
Happy Thanksgiving! Don't let the NFL hog all of the spotlight on Thursday, as there's a high-stakes game on the college gridiron as well. An AAC title and a shot at a College Football Playoff (CFP) spot are likely out of the picture for both Navy (8-2, 6-1 AAC) and Memphis (8-3, 4-3 AAC), but this standalone college football game will go a long way in determining bowl placement for these programs.
I've got you covered from a betting angle in this conference clash. Below, I'll break down the key metrics and provide you with my top college football picks in this Navy vs. Memphis game. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN.
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Thursday's Best College Football Picks: Week 14
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Navy Midshipmen (+5.5) vs. Memphis Tigers (-5.5) | O/U 57.5 (-115/-105)
This game opened with a betting spread of Memphis -4.5, and we've since seen some money come in on the Tigers, bumping them out to 5.5-point home favorites. As for the total, it has hovered right around the 57.5- to 58.5-point range. I do think the Midshipmen are live to win this game outright (+165), but in terms of a best bet, I'm keeping it simple and playing the over in this battle of high-powered offenses.
Starting with Navy's offense, they're still very much a run-heavy group, ranking fourth in rush attempts per game (48.2) and third in rushing play rate (75.8%). And not only do they run a lot, but they're also very good at it, ranking first in the nation in both rushing yards per game (308.2) and yards per rush attempt (6.4).
The Midshipmen should have no issue establishing the run in this one, but their ability to mix in the passing game at the right time is why they've found so much success this season. Navy is ranked second in college football in yards per pass play (16.5), and they'll take on a Memphis defense allowing 12 yards per pass play (100th).
On the other hand, Navy's defense has been its weakness in 2025. They're allowing 13 yards per pass play (120th) and 4.2 yards per rushing attempt (67th). Memphis boasts a dynamic offense with dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis under center. He has thrown for 2,395 yards and 13 touchdowns on a 71.7% completion rate, while adding 582 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground. Memphis has scored 27+ points in four straight games, as well as in 10 of its 11 contests this year.
From a pure points per game perspective, Memphis ranks 17th in the country (36.2), while Navy is 33rd (32.9). The Midshipmen are 8-2 to the over this season, while the Tigers have seen four of their last five games go over the number. The over is also 4-2 in the last six meetings between the two schools. Points should be plentiful in this one, so let's take the over.
Bet: Over 57.5 Points (-115)