College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (Week 11)
Week 11 of the college football season gets started Tuesday night with Massachusetts taking on Akron and the RedHawks of Miami (OH) facing Ohio. Yes, that's right - it's MAC-tion time. We've got your best college football Week 11 picks for these games right here.
These aren't games that many people are going to consider must-see TV, but sometimes those are the best games to bet on.
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College Football Week 11 Picks
Massachusetts vs. Akron
You know that old saying: If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all? I guess that means I can't say a word about the UMass Minutemen because this team is bad. They average fewer than 12 points a game and give up over 400 yards of offense and 35.9 points a game.
Akron isn't much better, but they are better. They don't move the ball much better than UMass, and give up 400+ yards of offense a game. But they have scored 20+ points in five out of eight games this season; UMass has done so twice, once in a loss to an FCS program.
The over for this total is 1-4 for UMass over their last five games and 1-3-1 for Akron. I'm a little concerned with both defenses giving up over 400+ yards a game and 29+ points. However, I don't think either offense is strong enough to capitalize on the other's defensive weaknesses.
Picks: Akron -10 (-110 at BetMGM) & Under 50.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami (OH) vs. Ohio
My gut wanted to go with Miami (OH), but the Bobcats are the better team between the two (but not by much). What pushed me to favor Ohio was the run game. Sieh Bangura has gone for 100+ yards in four of his last five games and scored five times in his last two games. Factor in Parker Navarro chipping in 60+rushing yards in six out of eight games, and you have a team that ranks 17th in rushing yards and 16th in time of possession.
By running the ball and controlling the clock, Ohio can protect its lackluster defense and keep the RedHawks’ offense from getting into a rhythm. Miami (OH) has a decent defense, but I think the Ohio run game will ultimately prevail.
Navarro has gone over his passing + rushing yards combo prop in four out of eight games, including last week against Eastern Michigan, on his passing yards (315) alone. But it was the only time in his last four games, and Eastern Michigan's defense ranks 128th in total yards (459.2 yards allowed per game). Miami (OH) will not be easy to run on, but with Bangura wearing it down, Navarro will find some running lanes.
I expect Navarro to come close, if not go over his combo prop, in the passing game alone. The RedHawks have a decent defense, but are a middle-of-the-pack unit against the pass in the conference.
Picks: Ohio Moneyline (-146 at FanDuel Sportsbook) & Parker Navarro Over 284.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)