College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
No offense to Week 0, but college football officially returns this weekend. And so does this column after a 29-20 performance in 2021.
Now our attention turns to 2022, which kicks off with a handful of big games, most notably Georgia-Oregon and Notre Dame-Ohio State. But for anyone new here, this column doesn’t talk about the biggest games of the week. In fact, it won’t cover a top 25 game all season.
Here, I’ll go over my favorite plays in games that likely won’t be on the national radar. But that’s just fine because the winning bets cash all the same.
Without further ado, let’s dive in with my Week 1 best under-the-radar plays:
TCU Horned Frogs -13.5 at Colorado Buffaloes, Total 56.5
Kickoff: Friday at 10 p.m. ET
Picture this in your head. The work week is over, Labor Day weekend has begun. And you’re starting it by watching TCU demolish Colorado.
Clearly, you can see how I envision this game playing out. And the betting public clearly agrees as this game has moved up almost a full touchdown from the opening line of TCU -7.5 way earlier in the summer.
So why is there so much TCU love and so much Colorado hatred? Let’s start with the Horned Frogs, who replaced long-time coach Gary Patterson with Sonny Dykes, who recently conducted an impressive turnaround at local rival SMU. Dykes went 30-18 at SMU and 25-10 over his final three seasons. He built a prolific offense at SMU that finished inside the top 13 in total offense each of the last three years.
He’ll look to bring that offensive flair to a Horned Frogs program that was stuck in the mud in the final years under Patterson. And he’ll have a great opportunity to do so with an offense that returns 10 starters.
The main question lies at quarterback, where incumbent Max Duggan is battling with redshirt freshman Chandler Morris for starting duties. Whoever wins the job will play behind an offensive line with 113 career starts under their belt, plus the team’s top four pass catchers from a season ago. Leading tailback Zach Evans departed via the transfer portal, but Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado both rushed for 400+ yards and should fill the void.
The Horned Frogs also return eight starters on defense as they transition from the patented Patterson 4-2-5 front to a 3-3-5 under new defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie, who is one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the country.
Meanwhile, Colorado brings back just five defenders and suffered significant losses at linebacker and within the secondary, most notably the departure of starting cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Christian Gonzalez to PAC-12 foes. That could spell doom against Dykes’ high-flying passing game.
Colorado does bring back seven starters on offense, including starting quarterback Brendon Lewis. But head coach Karl Dorrell brought in Mike Sanford as the team’s new offensive coordinator. Sanford has a long tenure of pretty mediocre offensive results, most recently leading the Minnesota Golden Gophers to finishes of 69th and 98th in total offense the last two years.
There isn’t as much value in this number now that it’s been steamed up so high. But BetRivers and FanDuel still have TCU at -13.5, a number I’ll still take.
The pick: TCU -13.5
Georgia State Panthers at South Carolina Gamecocks -13, Total 57.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 ET
South Carolina was one of the biggest overachievers of the 2021 season. First-year head coach Shane Beamer led the team to an impressive 7-6 campaign and a Duke’s Mayo Bowl victory over rival North Carolina. They pulled this off despite a disastrous situation under center.
Now, Beamer has brought in Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler to take over under center, with the hope being that a humbled Rattler can deliver on his promise in Columbia. The Gamecocks really have nowhere to go but up at quarterback, and Rattler will have last year’s top two receivers to throw to, plus an experienced offensive line protecting him. Defensively, only five starters return, however, including one along the defensive line.
While South Carolina overachieved, not many teams ended the year on a stronger note than Georgia State. The Panthers appeared left for dead at 1-4 before going 7-1 down the stretch and capping their season with a dominant Camellia Bowl victory.
Fifteen starters return this season, and all eyes will be on senior quarterback Darren Grainger, who took over the starting job in Week 3 of last season. The Panthers bring back two 800-yard rushers and their top receiver, as well as 143 career starts along the offensive line. Georgia State also returns seven starters on defense, including nine of their top 11 tacklers.
It’s probably a stretch to say Georgia State will walk into Columbia and knock off the Gamecocks. But they certainly could give them some trouble. Georgia State’s rushing attack could dominate an inexperienced South Carolina defensive line, allowing them to shorten the game and stay within the number. While Rattler is likely the most talented player on the field, nobody knows if he’s learned from his failed run at OU.
To top it off, this is a tricky spot for the Gamecocks, who travel to Arkansas next week for their SEC opener. The back door could be left wide open for Georgia State too.
The pick: Georgia State +13 (DraftKings)
New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers -36.5, Total 53
Kickoff: Thursday, 9 p.m. ET
The New Mexico State Aggies could be one of the worst offenses in college football in 2022. In Week 0, the Aggies mustered up a measly 12 points (two of which came on a safety) and just 5.1 yards per play while averaging nearly 29 seconds per play. In other words, the Aggies were slow and inefficient. Oh, they also turned the ball over five times.
That was against a gutted Nevada team. Now, New Mexico State will travel to Minneapolis to battle a Big Ten foe, and I don’t know if they’ll score a single point against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers gave up just 17.3 points per game a year ago. And while they lose five starters, this unit should still dominate.
Despite the apparent grudge Aggies coach Jerry Kill has with PJ Fleck, I don’t see Minnesota running up the score once things get out of hand. Unless the Gophers cover this total themselves, I see the under being a strong play.
The pick: Under 53 (BetRivers)
Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers -3, Total 45
Kickoff: Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Who doesn’t love a Big Ten showdown to kick off Labor Day weekend? The Illini got their season opener out of the way, dominating Wyoming 38-6 at home. Meanwhile, this will be the first game of the year for Indiana, who bottomed out at 2-10 last season.
You couldn’t have asked for a much better season-opening effort from the Illini, who out-gained the Cowboys 477-212, ran 30 more plays, and rushed for 260 yards. Most importantly, new quarterback Tommy DeVito played well in his debut start, completing 73% of his throws for 194 yards and two scores. Obviously, a grain of salt must be taken considering the opponent.
Indiana will welcome a new starter under center as Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak replaces Michael Penix Jr., who transferred to Washington. Bazelak is a credible starter, but he’ll be working with a really inexperienced receiving group, as the top three returning pass catchers combined for just 32 catches last year.
Coach Tom Allen brings back seven starters on defense and a handful of Power Five transfers to help beef up the defensive line. The matchup between Indiana’s front seven and Illinois’ offensive line will be the one to watch. Coach Bret Bielema is an outstanding offensive line coach and talent developer, and it showed last week against Wyoming.
I expect Illinois to win the battle in the trenches and allow tailback Chase Brown to be the star of the game. The Illini also benefit from getting a game under their belts in Week 0. Roll with Bielema’s bunch to at least cover Friday night.
The pick: Illinois +3 (DraftKings), lean Illinois +135 (BetMGM)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.