College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 1 (2026)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 1. Check out all of his top college football Week 1 picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 1 Bets & Picks
(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)
Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 1.
Auburn vs. Baylor
Auburn and Baylor played last season when Auburn was a much worse team with bad QB play, and the Tigers still won by 14 points. Auburn underachieved massively and decided to give Hugh Freeze the boot in favor of Alex Golesh from USF. Golesh brings 13 transfers from the 2025 USF squad that went 9-3, including star QB Byrum Brown. Brown had 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards last season and brings competency to the Tigers that they haven't had since Nix or Stidham. Baylor and HC Dave Aranda bring in transfer QB DJ Lagway to see if they can smooth out the issues he's had. Lagway regressed with more work in 2025; his big-time throw percentage dipped from 8.8% to 3.7%, and his turnover-worthy play rate went from 3% to 4.5%. Beyond the QBs, Auburn has a much stronger roster and advantages at every position group. I'm going to lay the points and take the Tigers; the over is in play as well, with both offenses (USF in Golesh's case) ranking in the top 10 in pace.
Pick: Auburn – 7.5
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa
Tulsa somehow won this matchup last season, but Oklahoma State has now revamped the entire team with new HC Eric Morris, who brings 18 transfers from his 9-3 UNT squad. Morris is joined by QB Drew Mestemaker, a Heisman candidate; RB Caleb Hawkins, who went for 1,434 yards and 25 touchdowns; and leading WR Wyatt Young-the top trio from the leading offense in 2025. Tulsa's only advantage is that it is at home; OK State is top 20 (16th) in roster strength, while Tulsa ranks 87th. Tulsa's first win against OK State since 1998 seems like a fluke; the previous 10 matchups all went to OK State, with seven of those wins coming by 14 or more points. This line would likely be higher if this weren't a "look-ahead" spot for the Cowboys, with Oregon coming to town in Week 2. OK State might be vanilla in the 2nd half, but it will likely be up by enough for it not to matter with this spread.
Pick: Oklahoma State -13.5
Ball State vs. Ohio State
The breakdown of this game might be the easiest, with the #1 FPI Buckeyes hosting the #133 Ball State Cardinals. However, this spread is enormous at 50.5, and Ohio State will look to bleed the clock in the second half before moving on to Texas in Week 2. If Ohio State wants to win by more than 50, it probably will, but the higher objective is to stay healthy and save some of its best plays for the hardest game of the year in Week 2. This is a look-ahead spot that won't cause problems for the Buckeyes but will likely lead to them bleeding the clock and playing it really safe in the 2nd half. Ohio State played at the slowest pace in the FBS in 2025, burning 32 seconds of the 40-second play clock on average, and will likely bleed the clock to sit on the lead in the 2nd half.
Pick: Ball State +50.5
Texas State vs. Texas
The same logic that applies to Ball State against Ohio State also applies to Texas State against Texas. The Bobcats have a much better roster than Ball State and will likely put up more of a fight, but if Texas wants to win by 30 or more, it likely can. Texas State has nice weapons in QB Brad Jackson and WR Beau Sparks and plays at a faster pace, with HC GJ Kinne and OC Landon Keopple designing the offense. The Longhorns rank 1st in overall roster strength and offensive roster strength and 3rd in defensive roster strength. The Texas State OL will likely struggle to keep Colin Simmons and company away from Brad Jackson, but Texas' strategy is the same as Ohio State's: stay healthy and save a lot of plays for the Buckeyes in Week 2. The Longhorns will build a lead and lean on their two new transfer RBs, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, to secure a nice, quick win before getting ready for the hardest game of the season.
Pick: Texas State +29.5
Memphis vs. Arkansas State
The public is very split on this one in another "look-ahead" spot. Memphis will certainly be looking ahead to the Week 2 matchup with Boise State, but it has a much better roster than Arkansas State. The Red Wolves played tough in 2025, but they are replacing a lot, including at QB. New Arkansas State QB Trey Owens transferred from Texas to replace three-year starter Jaylen Raynor, and he can sling it, but the Red Wolves will have a hard time keeping Memphis away from him. The Tigers had six sacks in Week 0 against UNLV and allowed only 21 points despite UNLV possessing the ball for 35 minutes. They also stopped three of five fourth-down attempts and held the Rebs to 3-of-15 on third downs. Arkansas State might move the ball, but I'm not sure it can stop Memphis. The Tigers put up 418 yards despite possessing the ball for only 24:51 and really started to click in the run game. Arkansas State is rated 132nd or lower at every position group on defense; Memphis will look to control the time of possession to keep Arkansas State from getting into a rhythm and should be able to do so against a defense that returns only two starters.
Pick: Memphis -10.5