College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 12 (2025)
College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 12. Check out all of his top college football Week 12 picks and predictions below.
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College Football Week 12 Bets & Picks
(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)
Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 12.
No. 13 Utah vs. Baylor
Baylor is a potent offense that has been too one-dimensional down the stretch to be in games against tough opponents. Baylor will put up points behind quarterback Sawyer Robertson and a strong pass-catching group; they are fifth in passing offense and 19th in scoring. The Bears have scored at least 30 points in all but two games so far this season, a tough 27-24 loss to Arizona State at home and a 20-point effort when Cincinnati defeated them 41-20 on the road. Unfortunately for Baylor, the Utes are eighth in scoring defense and sixth against the pass statistically. Utah has allowed only Texas Tech (34) and BYU (24) to score more than 14 points this season.
Baylor will likely score more than 14 points against Utah coming off a bye week and playing at home, but they will be hard-pressed to stop the Utes. Utah has put up over 40 points in five out of seven games against Power Four opponents, and Baylor's defense has been unreliable all season. The Bears have allowed 30+ points in five out of eight games against Power Four opponents, and really, it's opponents’ run games that have been the downfall. Utah is averaging the third-most rushing yards per game (267.1), ranks seventh in scoring and 11th in total yards. The Utes don't rely on superstars on offense; instead, the offensive line has been paving the way in the run game and keeping quarterback Devon Dampier on his feet (seventh-fewest sacks allowed per game in the FBS).
The Utes beat Cincinnati in their last game two weeks ago, 45-14, after brutalizing Colorado 53-7. Baylor won against a weak UCF team after back-to-back losses to TCU and Cincinnati on the road. This one will probably be a little closer, as the Bears were on the road for the two losses, but Baylor doesn't match up well with Utah on either side of the ball. Take the line value with the Utes.
Pick: Utah -7.5
No. 12 BYU vs. TCU
This bet is fading public sentiment for TCU on the road after the magic ran out, and BYU finally lost to Texas Tech. BYU was projected to be a bottom-feeder after Jake Retzlaff left late in the offseason. To almost everyone's surprise, they are still in the playoff hunt at 8-1 while being ranked 12th in the College Football Playoff (CFP) Rankings. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been getting the headlines (as quarterbacks always do), but the defense and run game have been the motor for the Cougars’ 2025 surge.
The public is likely on the Horned Frogs because it's not likely that the Cougars would be able to match them in a shootout. After all, BYU is 88th in passing yards per game, and TCU has played the run well this season, ranking 35th against the run and third in run defense grade. TCU being able to stop the run would be a major problem, but they have allowed at least 145 rushing yards in each of their three losses this season. BYU getting down early also is not a death sentence, as TCU has allowed anyone capable to pass on them - Abilene Christian had 276 passing yards, and WVU went for over 300 yards (West Virginia's only 300-yard passing game of the year).
TCU has enough offense to make this an interesting game, but the losses have shown cracks in the grade and stats of their run defense. BYU has been great in the big moments this season as well, the big Holy Win war against Utah, the overtime win on the road against Arizona and a game-sealing interception in the last few moments against Colorado have won them close games.
Looking at the big moments at a more granular level, BYU's defense really shows up, ranking 19th in opponent third-down conversion rate, 11th in opponent red-zone scoring and 30th in plays of 10+ yards allowed. The loss to Texas Tech was embarrassing, but the Red Raiders only got the end zone twice and had to settle for five field goals. The legit defense, cracks in run defense for TCU, winning the big moments and a late home start for BYU give them value here.
Pick: BYU -3
Penn State vs. Michigan State
There isn't much to play for, outside of pride, for these two 3-6 teams in Week 12. However, the loser of this game is out of a bowl spot, and that will be enough motivation to get them to play. Penn State lost a heartbreaker to Indiana, but there were some positives to pull out of playing the No. 2-ranked team in the country down to the wire. Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith said that it took three weeks for him to get them to throw the ball down the field, and the passing game opened up things for Nick Singleton in the run game. Penn State also held Indiana to its second-lowest offensive total of the season (27 points).
Michigan State has been tragic on offense the last four games, averaging only 16.5 points per game in that stretch after starting with a 32.8 points per game average in their first five games. The change at quarterback hasn't been very fruitful for the Spartans, and it has led to both new starter Alessio Milivojevic and benched starter Aidan Chiles to split first-team reps in practice this week, according to head coach Jonathan Smith. The offensive line has had issues as well, and Penn State’s issues have been primarily on offense; the defense should be licking its chops coming into this game.
The Spartans might have bigger issues on defense. Michigan State is middle of the road in terms of points allowed and total yards (68th in both), but they allowed five out of seven Power Four teams to score 38+ points. Only Michigan and Minnesota, without their best players, scored fewer than five touchdowns against Michigan State. Penn State's defense will set up its offense, which is finally starting to click, with short fields, and Michigan State’s defense has been weak in the red zone (102nd in opponent RZ Scoring%). The Land Grant Trophy is going to stay with the Nittany Lions, and their Bowl hopes will survive one more week.
Pick: Penn State -7
College Football Leans for Week 12
No. 22 Pitt vs. No. 9 Notre Dame - Pitt +12.5
Pittsburgh is at home, coming off a bye week and has won five straight games since making the switch at quarterback to Mason Heintschel. More importantly, Pitt is 5-0 in that stretch as well.
Illinois vs. Maryland - Over 51.5 Points
The wind has to stay in the ‘safe’ range of only gusts over 15 miles per hour (MPH), but Illinois will do the heavy lifting as Maryland matches up well enough to score points. Maryland’s defense won’t be enough to slow down Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer, but they should be able to score. Malik Washington has the Terrapins passing at a 62.3% rate. Coupled with the seventh-best pass blocking grade for Maryland and a coverage grade that ranks 124th for Illinois, that should provide plenty of opportunities for points.