College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 3 (2026)

by Scott Bogman |
Sep 18, 2026

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 3. Check out all of his top college football Week 3 picks and predictions below.

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College Football Week 3 Bets & Picks

(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)

Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 3.

North Texas vs. Texas State

North Texas was supposed to be in a "rebuilding year," with HC Eric Morris leaving for Oklahoma State and bringing 18 transfers and his OC, Sean Brophy, with him. However, new HC Neal Brown (35-16 at Troy from 2015-2018; 37-35 at WVU from 2019-2024) has the Mean Green playing very well to start his North Texas tenure. The Mean Green played well statistically but couldn't keep up with national champion Indiana. However, they did handle UNLV 44-6 in Week 2. Texas State’s offense looked much better against UTSA than it did against Texas: 481 yards, 9-of-16 on third downs and 26 points. The defenses don't match up well on either side in this game. The run game has bitten Texas State this season; it currently ranks 98th in rushing yards allowed and 90th in RunD grade through its first two games. The North Texas defense has been stingy against the run but bad in coverage (85th in passing yards allowed) and at getting to the QB (four sacks). North Texas is way better than expected heading into the season. Texas State has had two really tough games but is better than it has shown thus far. This will be a close one, but momentum is on North Texas' side, and we see value there.

Pick: North Texas +2.5

Louisville vs. SMU

These offenses look strong right now, and this should be a high-scoring affair if the heat doesn't wear them down (91.7 degrees). SMU has been rolling. It put up 585 yards against Florida State and then 547 against No. 11-ranked FCS UC Davis (31st in PPG, 41.5). Louisville has been even better (17th, 48.5 PPG), with 38 points in a loss to Ole Miss and then 59 against its FCS opponent, No. 22-ranked Villanova. The difference in this one looks to be on the defensive side. Louisville gave up some big plays against Ole Miss but has much better roster strength on defense (15th for Louisville, 52nd for SMU). The SMU offense has one of the most experienced QBs in the country in Kevin Jennings, but this road test will be a tough one. Lincoln Kienholz lacks Jennings' experience but has looked unbelievable in his first two starts, gets to play at home and has a seemingly better supporting cast. Jennings had four turnover-worthy plays on the road against Florida State in Week 1. Maybe that was from shaking off the rust, but turning the ball over against Louisville this week will be much more impactful. Take the home team and lay the points.

Pick: Louisville -1.5

New Mexico vs. Oklahoma

New Mexico won't be as efficient against an angry Oklahoma team, but it has been running the ball very well against some bad competition in CMU and Mercyhurst. Scottre Humphrey has been leading the Lobos but is likely to run into more of a wall against Oklahoma. However, the Sooners' offense has been rough to start the season. OU played well against UTEP and poorly against Michigan. Surprisingly, with a roster strength ranking of 58th, New Mexico is closer to Michigan at 21st than UTEP at 108th. Both offenses play at a slow pace; New Mexico is 125th, while Oklahoma is 83rd. Oklahoma QB John Mateer hasn't been playing his best recently (64th in passer rating). The pace of the offense is slow, and New Mexico has one of the better G6 defensive units. New Mexico’s offense has yet to be tested after losing starting QB Jack Layne for the season, but Luke Moga has kept the ball out of harm’s way (zero turnover-worthy plays on 29 dropbacks) and leaned on the run game. Oklahoma is going to be angry, but this is going to be a hot game (95.8 degrees), which will lead to more player rotation. This is also a look-ahead spot for the Sooners, with a road game against Georgia in Week 4. Oklahoma will win by multiple scores, but more than three TDs might be too much to ask.

Pick: New Mexico +22.5

Virginia vs. West Virginia

These teams have both found success with big changes to their rosters. Virginia has been rolling with Missouri transfer Beau Pribula, and West Virginia has been running strong with Oklahoma transfer QB Michael Hawkins and the nation's leading rusher in 2025, RB Cam Cook from Jacksonville State. The exciting new additions have all made big plays and have fans excited, but the real difference in this game is the Virginia OL against the WVU defense. The Cavaliers have 174 combined starts among their five starting offensive linemen and have been rolling over the competition. Virginia put up 258 rushing yards in the opener against NC State for a 34-8 win and 237 more in a 59-3 win over Norfolk State in Week 2. WVU has looked strong as well, but Coastal Carolina (111th in FPI) and UT Martin are not the strongest competition. This will be its first big test. Coastal Carolina put up over 400 yards against this West Virginia defense. Unless it improves by leaps and bounds in two weeks, it likely won't hold up against the Cavs. The Cavs' defense was supposed to be the strong part of this squad, but with the offense clicking, they have pushed into the top 25. This is a neutral-site game with no look-ahead for Virginia (Delaware next week) and clear weather. Lay the points and take the Cavs.

Pick: Virginia -10.5

Duke vs. Stanford

The Blue Devils are in a rebuilding year after losing their two best offensive players, QB Darian Mensah and WR Cooper Barkate, to Miami. Still, the Duke defense is supposed to be the weaker of the two units, and it has done enough to win its first two games against Tulane (17-3) and Illinois (31-27). Duke has been leaning on the run game of the nation's second-leading rusher, RB Nate Sheppard (59-374-5), to control the clock and keep the defense rested and gassed up. Stanford has been strong against the run in its first two games, but Miami is really pushing the Mensah-Toney Heisman card with a lot of passes. Duke is 22nd in rushing-play percentage on offense and hasn't been able to do enough to be confident in the passing game yet. The good news for Duke is that Stanford is still grading terribly against the run (123rd) despite its statistical success. This is Stanford's longest road trip of the season, and it is dealing with a patchwork OL that is still missing starters LT Niki Prongos (questionable, hasn't played yet this year) and C Aidan Kilstrom (out). It also has some defensive starters who are questionable (LB Jahsiah Galvan and S Charlie Eckhardt). Duke might be down one starter at safety in DaShawn Stone and will be without last year's starting LT, Roman Fina, who hasn't played this year. Duke will lean on Sheppard to wear down the Cardinal defense and dominate TOP, as it did against Tulane (36:35-23:25). If the formula works, Duke will win by more than this spread and cover comfortably.

Pick: Duke -10

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