College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (2025)

by Scott Bogman |
Sep 26, 2025

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 5. Check out all of his top college football Week 5 picks and predictions below.

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College Football Week 5 Bets & Picks

(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)

Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 5.

Rutgers vs. Minnesota

Rutgers’ offense, behind quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, is running white hot to start the season, averaging 41 points per game through the first four weeks. The Knights’ most impressive performance was probably putting up 28 points and 400 yards on Iowa last week. The Buckeyes’ National Championship offense was the last team to put up 400 yards against Iowa before Rutgers.

Minnesota hasn't been consistent yet this season, with a win but an against the spread (ATS) loss at home to Buffalo to kick off the year, an FCS thrashing and then going to Cal and dropping a game they were favored in. The Gophers’ offense was without running back Darius Taylor in that loss to Cal, but he could return this week off the Gophers’ bye. Taylor would be helpful, but Minnesota will be able to move the ball either way, as Rutgers grades 133rd of 136 teams in overall defense, 128th in run defense and 123rd in coverage against two MAC teams in Iowa and FCS Norfolk State.

Rutgers will likely not have problems moving the ball, but it also hasn't been able to slow down anyone quite yet. Minnesota plays at a slower pace, but the Knights have given up 18 plays of 20+ yards and are tied with the seventh-most touchdowns given up so far (10). These teams are both below average in touchdown drives allowed at 60% for Minnesota and 71.4% for Rutgers. This looks to be closer to a field goal game at the end, with frequent touchdown drives before then.

Pick: Rutgers +5.5 & Over 51.5 Points

No. 21 USC vs. No. 23 Illinois

Illinois looks to bounce back in a tough home game against USC after its 53-point loss at Indiana last week. USC hasn't been tested quite yet, but their defense has given up some points late - 14 of the 17 points they allowed to Purdue came in the second half, and 21 of the 31 given up to Michigan State were in the fourth quarter. Both teams covered the spread. Illinois seemed to be rolling downhill in its first two FBS games this year when it scored 45 against Duke and 38 against Western Michigan. Indiana held the Illini to 10 points, nine first downs, two rushing yards and 161 total yards. They sacked Luke Altmyer seven times and held them to converting just one of 10 third downs.

USC is fifth in points per game, third in total yards per game and seventh in offensive grade, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). They rank in the top 20 in every other offensive category except run blocking. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava ranks first in quarterback rating and yards per attempt, sixth in passing yards, 11th in completion rate, 15th in touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. The team’s run blocking may not grade well, but that hasn't stopped running back Waymond Jordan, who ranks 10th in rushing tards this season. He and Maiava have combined for seven rushing scores. Wide receiver Makai Lemon is seventh in receiving yards. Ja'Kobi Lane, who missed last week, was back at practice but it’s unclear if he will play this week.

The Illinois defense was stout until playing Indiana; they had only given up 22 points across three games and had averaged only 268 total yards allowed per game. Indiana was a shade below 579 yards with 312 on the ground and 31 first downs on almost 40 minutes of possession. Looming larger than the blowout loss is the injury to star cornerback Xavier Scott, as well as injuries to three other members of the secondary with over 100 snaps. Illinois may make a strong return on the offensive side, but the defense might not bounce back as fast.

Illinois was exposed against Indiana and is dealing with injuries to the secondary, leading to USC jumping from a 1.5-point favorite to 6.5. USC is 4-0 this season, 3-1 to the over and has averaged 39 points against two Big 10 opponents. USC is clicking on offense; they have left the backdoor open for covers the last two weeks. The over is in play and hasn't risen nearly as much as the spread despite the injuries to the Illini secondary and Lane returning to practice for USC.

Pick: Over 60.5 Points

No. 17 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia

Georgia's defense was exposed entirely against Tennessee, but the offense showed the pop that was missing in its 44-41 overtime win. The Bulldogs bowed up on offense with 502 yards of offense and held the ball for just under 40 minutes in that game against Tennessee. However, the defense was beaten for 497 yards and 40 points despite allowing the Volunteers to only possess the ball for 21:32. Georgia was beaten by big plays; Tennessee had scores of 72, 56 and 32 yards, plus seven more plays of 15+ yards.

Alabama obviously suffered an embarrassing loss to FSU and has since stomped ULM 73-0 and beaten Wisconsin 38-14. FSU did their work on the ground against Alabama, and that feeds to the over with Georgia running at the 20th-highest percentage in the country. Gunner Stockton did a great job passing against Tennessee as well, with his first 300-yard passing game. Ty Simpson was sharp against Wisconsin, going 24-of-29 with 382 yards and four touchdowns.

The Alabama defense gets a boost with interior defensive lineman Tim Keenan returning, but the pressure has not been there for either of these teams this season, which is why the over is the play here. These teams have a combined eight sacks this season, with four apiece, and they grade 125th (Georgia) and 128th (Alabama) in pass rush this season. Big plays and points are in order with two young quarterbacks given time to throw the ball, and the talent surrounding them on offense. Mistakes should also lead to either defensive scores or short fields. There's almost no way this game can be as wild as 2024's matchup, but the BettingPros system tells us to expect fireworks.

Pick: Over 53.5 Points

College Football Leans for Week 5

UCLA @ Northwestern - UCLA +6.5

Teams that fire their head coach are 56% against the spread (ATS) since 2000.

No. 11 Indiana @ Iowa - Over 47.5 Points

Indiana has outgained opponents 2,354-853 and has averaged 58 points per game, while allowing 48 points per game against FBS opponents

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