College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 6 (2025)

by Scott Bogman |
Oct 03, 2025

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 6. Check out all of his top college football Week 6 picks and predictions below.

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

College Football Week 6 Bets & Picks

(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)

Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 6.

No. 20 Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Michigan is a big favorite and the value is on them against a reeling Wisconsin team. The Badgers are having a tough season; they are 0-2 against Power Four opponents and are not favored to win another game this season. Luke Fickell is 78-40 in his career as a head coach, but just 15-15 at Wisconsin and 8-11 in conference play. He is second behind only Florida head coach Billy Napier in odds to be the next head coach fired.

Wisconsin has been OK on defense, but the offense is so awful that the defensive effort hasn't been able to keep them in games against Alabama and Maryland. Danny O'Neil looked great replacing injured starting quarterback Billy Edwards against MTSU, but he only had 117 yards against Alabama and 120 before getting hurt against Maryland. Edwards weirdly entered that game two weeks ago. Still, Fickell said, 'they didn't protect Edwards from himself,' and O'Neil has reportedly had the majority of the reps in practice going into Michigan.

Wisconsin has been strong on defense and boasts the No. 1 rushing defense statistically, but a closer look reveals that they have faced the 96th, 133rd, 108th and 122nd rushing offenses statistically this season. The Badgers have been passed on routinely with the 12th-highest passing play rate against. They rank 89th in passing yards allowed and 98th in coverage grade by Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Michigan is way ahead when they are on defense, but offensively, they haven't quite hit their stride. True Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, alongside running backs Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall, has built this into a top-10 rushing offense statistically this season. The passing game has been weak, ranking 106th in passing yards per game, but they don't grade much better, and Underwood has only two passing touchdowns.

The Wolverines have had two weeks to prepare for this game; they are at home, Wisconsin is essentially out of contention this season and Michigan has a significant edge on defense. This isn't likely to be over early, but the dam is likely to break late in the game with big plays (Michigan has five plays of over 50+ yards). Wisconsin turnovers could turn it ugly early, but a three-score victory seems likely for Michigan, and a team total under 13.5 should be in play as well.

Pick: Michigan -17.5

No. 24 Virginia vs. Louisville

There is a nice lean on the over in this game, even with a large total, and it's likely due to the Virginia defense and offense. However, the strength of the Louisville defense, coupled with the slow pace at which Louisville plays, has the public leaning toward the under. Louisville has a top-five defensive grade, allowing only 18.8 points per game (37th), and ranks 15th against the pass statistically (150.8 yards per game). These numbers are less impressive given the context of the schedule against James Madison, Bowling Green and Pitt. Pitt is the only above-average offense Louisville has played, and they were down their best offensive player in running back Desmond Reid.

The offense for Louisville has been graded as very average, according to PFF, due to the weak schedule, but they are still tied for 24th in points per game at 38.3. The Cardinals are a more appropriate 60th in total offense statistically, but the good news is that Virginia has been miserable defensively. The Cavs’ numbers are just middling, but three of these games can be ignored because Coastal Carolina, FCS William and Mary and Stanford make one of the weakest schedules in the Power Four to start. NC State went for 416 yards and 36 points against Virginia and FSU put up 514 yards and 38 points in the overtime loss to UVA last week.

Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris transferred from North Texas, where the Mean Green were 23rd in points per game with 33.8, and has improved UVA to 45.6 points per game so far in 2025. The weak schedule has obviously helped, but the big performance against FSU is proof that they are likely to be able to score against even strong defenses. Louisville may play it slow offensively, but Virginia has led in time of possession against all three ACC opponents and is 12th in offensive pace. The 'letdown' game could easily be on tap for UVA, but they will put up points and allow points unless they figure out something on defense, which is unlikely this week. The over will take a while to hit, but this should turn into a shootout quickly.

Pick: Over 60.5 Points

Mississippi State vs. No. 6 Texas A&M

This one is a peculiar spot for Mississippi State, but the value is evident in their favor and the over. The Bulldogs are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this year, but this is a tough first road test at College Station in a night game. The Aggies played well on defense against Auburn last week, holding them to only 10 points, 177 yards and only 25:54 in possession. Mississippi State might not put up its normal point or yardage total against Texas A&M, but it is highly unlikely they are 0-15 on third and fourth downs like Auburn. The Texas A&M defense is still the group that allowed 429 yards and 40 points to Notre Dame and 203 rushing yards to UTSA.

The Bulldogs’ defense is a bit weird; they have had great performances, but only the one against Arizona State stands out. Mississippi State held the Devils to 85 passing yards but allowed over 200 on the ground, and only held the ball for 22 minutes. The Tennessee game is more likely a close representation, as they had 466 total yards, including 335 passing yards and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has been great to start, but he is just as likely to have a turnover-worthy play (five) as a big-time throw (six), which is great for points either way.

The one strong defensive showing for the Aggies, even though it was last week, isn't enough to consider this defense completely fixed. Mississippi State is going to be able to move the ball, play at a fast pace and was not able to make stops against a comparable offense in Tennessee last week. These teams are 131st (Miss State) and 134th (TAMU) in penalties, which could help us get to the over as well. This seems like too many points for the Aggies to cover in a game that should not be short on points. The over seems safer with both offenses looking strong, Mississippi State's defense is rough, and the Aggies have been wildly inconsistent performing on defense. Points are what we want here, take them with the Bulldogs and predict them with the over.

Pick: Mississippi State +15.5 & Over 56.5 Points

College Football Leans for Week 6

Pitt vs. Boston College - Pitt -6.5

This one should be closer to double digits. This is a home game for Pitt; they have a much higher-rated roster and this one is very important for Pitt’s bowl eligibility.

Memphis vs. Tulsa - Memphis -20.5

Memphis is averaging around 40 points per game and Tulsa is hovering around 21. The Tigers’ offense is going to pour it on at home; Tulsa is not likely to match them in scoring.

Maryland vs. Washington - Maryland +5.5

Maryland doesn’t have a quality win yet, but Freshman quarterback Malik Washington has the offense humming. Washington has to travel across the country after a physical loss to Ohio State

No. 21 Notre Dame vs. Boise State - Over 62.5 Points

Notre Dame has to keep putting up massive margins of victory after two losses and no more ranked opponents on the schedule; they should do the heavy lifting toward the over.

Navigate