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College Football Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/4)

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Three MAC games are on tonight, and I'm making a pick for each. First, I’ll explain why Ball State will struggle against Massachusetts’ defense. Then, I’ll explain why Toledo should win easily and where Central Michigan has the advantage over Eastern Michigan. Here are the best college football picks for Wednesday, November 4th.

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Wednesday’s Best College Football Picks (Week 10)

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen

Ball State is coming off back-to-back 30-point games. However, one was an overtime win against the MAC's ninth-worst scoring defense, and the other was against Sacramento State, which ranks 10th in the conference in points allowed per game. Both teams are allowing at least 29 points per contest.

Massachusetts ranks second in the conference in points allowed per game, giving up just 21.1 per contest. Despite a four-game losing streak, the Minutemen have held all but two opponents to 25 or fewer points. Two weeks ago, they allowed 35 points to UConn, but the Huskies rank 30th nationally in points per game, averaging 34.4 per contest.

Ball State is averaging just 22 points per game. On four different occasions, the offense has been held to 15 points or fewer. Don't be swayed by two decent performances in two very favorable matchups over the last three weeks.

Pick: Ball State Team Total Under 23.5 Points (-118)

Central Michigan Chippewas at Eastern Michigan Eagles

Of all MAC teams, Eastern Michigan is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Yet, while teams average just 135.11 rushing yards per contest against the Eagles, I like Central Michigan to run for at least 135 yards tonight for a few reasons. 

First, Central Michigan is averaging 169.3 rushing yards per game. That's fourth-best in the MAC. Eastern Michigan is allowing 4.25 yards per carry, while Central Michigan averages 4.45 yards per carry. While this may suggest Eastern Michigan has a slight advantage, I don't see how it would cause Central Michigan to miss its season average by 35+ yards.

Additionally, this number seems low because Central Michigan managed just 64 yards in its last game. However, that performance came against Miami (OH), the MAC’s best run defense, which is allowing 94.88 yards per game and 3.34 yards per carry.

Pick: Central Michigan Over 134.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets

The biggest mismatch of Wednesday's slate will be in Sacramento, California, as Toledo enters the contest as a 24.5-point favorite. Even though Sacramento State is at home and coming off a 21-point win over Kent State, I don't expect this game to be close. 

Toledo is averaging 37.4 points per game this season. That's 7.8 more than any other MAC team and 20.4 more than Sacramento State’s 17 points-per-game average. Defensively, Toledo allows 25.4 points per game, while Sacramento State allows 30.3.

Sacramento State has allowed at least 31 points in six of its last seven games. Four of those games resulted in losses of at least 28 points. The closest of those losses was 17 points - a 15-point road win over Ball State.

Pick: Toledo -24.5 (-110)

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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