College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 9 (South Alabama vs. Georgia State)
We're into the portion of the season where we basically have college football action daily. Thursday's schedule features a standalone clash in the Sun Belt you do not want to miss between the South Alabama Jaguars (1-6, 0-3 SB) and the Georgia State Panthers (1-6, 0-3 SB). Let's dive into the odds and key information, and I'll wrap up with my top college football picks for this Sun Belt matchup.
Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta, GA.
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Thursday's Best College Football Picks: Week 9
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
South Alabama Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Georgia State Panthers (+6.5) | O/U 55.5 (-110/-110)
I'm never rushing to the window to lay nearly a touchdown's worth of points with a 1-6 team, but I do believe that South Alabama has a clear path to covering this spread. Also, it's always an advantage to be on the right side of the key number of 7.0, as we are with the Jaguars -6.5.
South Alabama's strength is its rushing attack. They're running the football on 60.6% of their plays, which is the 10th-highest rate in the nation. The Jaguars are averaging 199.5 rushing yards per contest (20th) and 4.5 yards per rush attempt (43rd). They'll take on a Panthers defense that ranks 130th in both rushing yards allowed per game (223.2) and rushing yards allowed per attempt (5.7).
On the flip side, Georgia State is a pass-heavy team, throwing the ball on 61.5% of its plays (fourth). This actually plays into South Alabama's hands as well, since the Jaguars are the 22nd-ranked team in terms of opposing completion rate (58.3%). The visitors are a respectable 60th in third-down defense (38.4%), and if they're able to put the Panthers in a lot of 3rd & long scenarios, they should thrive.
Finally, it's worth touching on a few intangibles. South Alabama will have a rest advantage. They played last Tuesday, giving them eight days of full rest. Georgia State played on Saturday, so they're on only four days of full rest. Dating back to last season, the Panthers are 1-7 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), and they've also gone just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
This game may not be too appealing to casual sports fans, but as a South Alabama bettor, I'm licking my chops heading into Thursday night's Sun Belt showdown. Give me the Jaguars -6.5.
Bet: South Alabama Jaguars -6.5 (-110)