College Football Player Props: National Championship (Miami vs. Indiana)
We broke out the brooms for a perfect 3-0 sweep with our Peach Bowl player props. I'm looking to stay hot and close out the college football season with another profitable night on Monday, as top-ranked Indiana (15-0) and No. 10 Miami (13-2) square off for the College Football Playoff National Championship. Below, I'll dive into my three favorite college football player props for Monday's title game in sunny Miami.
Indiana is looking to bring the Big Ten its third consecutive National Championship, and the betting market suggests that's likely, as the Hoosiers are 8.5-point favorites against their ACC foe. The total sits at 47.5 points, which is down slightly from the opening number of 48.5 points. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.
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College Football Player Props: National Championship
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Fernando Mendoza 55+ First-Quarter Passing Yards (-125)
Miami will be depleted in the secondary on Monday, and I'm looking to strike while the iron's hot. For starters, key cornerback Xavier Lucas will be sidelined in the first half due to a targeting penalty he accrued in the College Football Playoff semi-finals against Ole Miss. Additionally, cornerback Damari Brown (undisclosed) has missed all three playoff games, while corner OJ Frederique Jr. (lower-body) played only five snaps last round.
This is not an offense you want to be short-handed against. I expect Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti to target the diminished Miami secondary early and often. I'll play this year's Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, to clear 54.5 passing yards in the opening quarter. Mendoza has racked up 3,349 passing yards (20th) this season, while ranking first in both touchdown passes (41) and quarterback rating (90.2). Indiana averages 13.2 yards per pass attempt (21st), and they're also seventh in the country in first-quarter scoring (9.3 points per first quarter). Let's back the Hoosiers quarterback to have an effective first quarter.
Omar Cooper Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Adding to my pro-Indiana outlook on the game, I'll also be adding Omar Cooper Jr. to score to my betting card. The star receiver spent a ton of time in the end zone this season, ranking third in the country in receiving touchdowns (13). He has scored in six consecutive games, as well as in eight of his last 10 games.
For as tough as Miami's defense has been this season, they're actually not too fortified when it comes to red-zone defense. The Hurricanes allowed 17 touchdowns on 32 opposing trips to the red area (53.1%). That includes nine passing touchdowns.
Mark Fletcher Jr. Under 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Miami's Mark Fletcher Jr. has been an absolute workhorse this season, amassing 1,080 rushing yards (27th) and averaging 5.4 yards per carry (84th). He's 31st in the nation in carries (199). Fletcher has gone for 90+ rushing yards in each of Miami’s three College Football Playoff contests.
With that said, I believe this is a great sell-high spot on the Hurricanes running back. In 13 total games this season, Fletcher has stayed under this number five times. This will easily be the toughest front seven he and Miami's offensive line will face. Indiana is conceding only 75 rushing yards per game (second) and 2.9 yards per attempt (seventh).
Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades the Hoosiers as the third-best rushing defense (94.1) in the country, while ranking fourth in tackling (90.7). Factor in that Miami may find itself trailing throughout this game, leading to a more passer-friendly game plan, and we could see Fletcher's number not called very often.