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College Football Playoff & National Championship Odds & Picks (2024)

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The 2024 college football season will be historic, as it will be the first with a 12-team playoff bracket. Consequently, college football playoff (CFP_ odds are among the more interesting NCAA Football (NCAAF) markets at sportsbooks. But if we discuss college football playoff odds, it only seems right to refer to the latest National Championship odds.

Let’s review how the 12-team format will work and then take a look at our favorites, dark horses and longshots to make the first 12-team CFP.

How 12-Team College Football Playoff Works

Before going over some CFP and National Championship odds, let's review how the 12-team field will come together:

  • The five highest-ranked conference champions are in. More than likely, that means the winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and ACC will have a spot. As for the fifth, it will probably go to either the AAC or Conference USA winner.
  • Everyone must earn their spot. No spots will get relegated to any one conference.
  • There is no limit on the number of teams from a conference making it in.
  • The fifth conference seed will depend on where it is ranked. The next seven highest-ranked teams will also qualify.
  • The top four get a bye week in the first round.
  • Seeding and ranking are not the same thing. Let's say Michigan beats Ohio State but loses the Big Ten title game but still finishes the regular season inside the top four. Since the top four spots go to conference champions, the highest they could be seeded is fifth.
  • The highest an independent can be seeded is fifth since they do not play in conference title games.

That's the gist of it. The idea may be to ensure the right team gets crowned the National Champion. But imagine the outcry the first time one of the higher seeds gets lucky and wins it all. That team will sit atop the CFP rankings but don't count on the AP and Coaches Poll following suit.

Such a scenario will then lead to questions of whether the best team won the title.

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College Football Playoff & National Championship Odds, Picks, & Predictions

For this article, we are not going to focus on the top contenders (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; National Championship odds in parentheses), i.e., Georgia -600 (+280), Ohio State -650 (+400), Oregon -330 (+650), Texas -220 (+850). Many of these teams will likely make the playoffs, and some will not. But the odds for all of them are too short to recommend betting on them. There's no value.

If you want to see the odds for every team, read this post and then visit an online sportsbook for a complete list of teams and their odds.

Favorites

Jalen Milroe developed into a good quarterback last season, but in the offense of new head coach Kalen DeBoer, he might become a great one. Nick Saban retired, but the roster remains stacked with talent. DeBoer will know what to do with it.

They can lose to Georgia in Week 4 and still make the SEC title game if they run the table - which they should. If they win the SEC, they'll be in; if Alabama loses the title game, they'll probably still make it but as a lower seed.

We can probably count on the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC champs claiming three spots in the top four. But who will the other one be? It will probably be the winner of the ACC. If DJ Uiagalelei can step up, FSU will have a solid shot. But this could also be the year Clemson returns to the national spotlight. Miami could be added to the conversation and maybe NC State. But we like FSU and Clemson.

Should both teams make it to the ACC title game, there is a strong chance the loser could sneak into the playoffs.

Dark Horses

Jalon Daniels has played enough to show us he has the arm talent and athleticism to be the next great dual-threat quarterback. But can he stay healthy enough to guide the Jayhawks into the Big 12 title game? If he does... a spot in the CFP could be next.

Longtime quarterback Alan Bowman and the passing game need to improve. Assuming Ollie Gordon picks up where he left off, the Cowboys could be in the mix.

The Big Ten, ACC and SEC will take a spot. That leaves one for the winner of the MAC, AAC, Conference USA, etc. Of the remaining conferences, the likely candidates will be the AAC (Memphis) and Conference USA (Liberty) winners.

Longshots

  • Arizona +1100 (+3000): Noah Fifita was fun to watch last season. Should he have similar success in Arizona's first season in the pass-happy Big 12, the Wildcats could have an outside shot at the title game - and a spot in the CFP.
  • Colorado +2500 (+30000): The Buffs have the kind of offense it takes to win games. But will the defense step up and help this year? That's a good question.
  • Miami (OH) +2500(+100000): They are the favorite to win the MAC. Since five conference champions get an automatic spot, Miami qualifies as a long shot to claim one. But there might be a chance if the stars align and they get an incredible number of lucky breaks.

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