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College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions: First Round (2024)

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College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for the first round of the College Football Playoff. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.

College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions

Indiana vs. Notre Dame

Indiana was held to 151 Total Yards against Ohio State. They had on punt blocked and one returned for a TD and fumbled.  The defense played strong against Ohio State, they didn't get a sack but they held Ohio State to only 316 yards.  The defense will have a tall task against one of the best run offenses in the country, but Notre Dame is fairly one dimensional with Riley Leonard's season passing high at 229 yards.  Notre Dame has scored at least two rushing TDs and gained 100 yards, but they also haven't seen a run defense as strong as Indiana.  The best route to victory for the Hoosiers is to score, force the Irish to pass more than they like, and let the pass rush loose.  Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke passing, in the cold, against the 3rd ranked defense is where the plan for Indiana might go awry.  Indiana looked AWFUL in their first test against a Championship-tier defense. While the stats are awesome for Notre Dame they have also failed when tested against upper-tier passing attacks in Louisville (20th ranked Passing Offense – 264 yards, 3 TDs vs Louisville) and USC (5th ranked Passing Offense – 369 yards 3 TDs @ USC).  Indiana does still run the ball but they have the highest team QB Rating in FBS (179.07).  The cold weather hasn't slowed either of these teams in games yet, but it is projected to be under 30 degrees at kickoff with wind right around 10 MPH.  

Picks

I feel like Notre Dame is the better team and will win this game.  The run game is too strong and the Irish defense has the most turnovers created on defense this season.  However, I still expect Indiana to be able to move the ball and they will be able to at least put up points. If they can avoid the turnovers and create some themselves (12th in \turnovers), they can stay in this game. 

SMU vs. Penn State

The question in this game is can the SMU OL hold up against this Penn State pass rush? If they can't, Penn State is going to wrap this one up pretty quickly. Penn State has NFL Draft prospects in all 3 levels of this defense, they have faced a Top-20 Strength of Schedule and has come away with a Top-10 Scoring and Total Defense. SMU QB Kevin Jennings has been great since taking over, but he was Jekyll and Hyde the last time we saw him, turning the ball over early and then leading the Mustangs back to tie the game with only 16 seconds left. Penn State has a Top-20 rushing offense and is coming off their most impressive performance, putting up 518 yards and 37 points against #1 Oregon in the B1G Title game. SMU has been great on defense against the run (5th) but has been well below average against the pass (90th). Penn State should be able to score. Clemson, Pitt, Boston College, Duke, Louisville and TCU all put up 25+ points on SMU. The weather will play a factor in this game as the forecast predicts this game will have sustained winds and stay under 30 degrees.

Picks

This game is likely to have the biggest home field advantage with the crowd and weather.  SMU is 3rd in Sacks with 40 this year and has been good against the run, but Penn State is running hot on offense right now, and I don't trust the defense to hold up for 60 minutes.  SMU proved that they can mount a comeback last week which is why I lean to the Over.  I think the cold weather, home crowd, hot offense, and elite defense are going to be too much for the Mustangs, and Penn State pulls away at the end.

Clemson vs. Texas

The largest line of the 1st Round goes to the Longhorns as the only team laying double digits this weekend. The Longhorns defense is why they are such big favorites, as they are 2nd in Scoring, 3rd in Total Defense, 1st against the pass, and 15th against the run. Georgia and Vanderbilt are the only teams to score more than 17 points against Texas all season. They are 9th in sacks and tied with Notre Dame for the most turnovers created this season with 28. Clemson has played two games against the SEC and has come away with 17 points so far. The Texas offense is where the problem lies. The Longhorns have had issues running the ball and recently scoring. The run game has started to come around for Texas. They rode RB Quintrevion Wisner to victory against Kentucky and Texas A&M before abandoning the run during the SEC title game. The Longhorns are 106th in Red Zone Scoring Percentage and it cost them a bye week in the playoff when they missed two FGs and failed to score more than one TD against Georgia. Clemson has shown strength on offense but they have also passed at just under a 60% pace and they are facing the #1 Defense against the pass statistically and in PFF Grade. Clemson will have to rely on the Longhorns offense to sputter out in the red zone as they have and hope they can create turnovers and short fields to compete in this one. If Texas gets rolling on offense and can pin their ears back and force Klubnik to throw quickly, it will be a long day for Clemson on the road.

Picks

I'm a Texas homer but the best bet in this game to me is the Under.  Texas has been ridiculous on defense this season, the Gators are the only team to go over 300 yards against them and the Longhorns won that game 49-17.  Clemson QB Cade Klubnik has done a great job leading the Tigers this season but I don't think he'll have enough help in this game to keep them in this one.  Quinn Ewers has been discussed a lot as the weakness and reason that Texas has struggled but I expect HC Steve Sarkisian to get the hook out early if Ewers isn't getting it done and go to Arch Manning.  The Longhorns should control this game and they are strong on offense and struggling on defense which leads me to the Under.

Tennessee vs. Ohio State

There are concerns for both teams in this game. The Buckeyes have had issues on the OL with starters Josh Simmons (Left Tackle) and Seth McLaughlin (Center) going down for the season. Donovan Jackson has had some tough grades since moving from LG to LT when Simmons went down. The Buckeyes have also had issues with QB Will Howard in big games. He had a bad Pick-6 in the game against Penn State and his two Red Zone interceptions cost them a chance at the B1G Title game in the loss to Michigan. Tennessee has scored a lot of points but QB Nico Iamaleava has shrunk in some of the bigger games they have played this season. Nico has had under 200 Passing yards in seven games this season and Ohio State is the best Passing defense they will face. RB Dylan Sampson has 275 touches this season and is the engine for Tennessee but the Buckeyes are 2nd statistically and 4th in PFF Grade against the run this season. Will Howard getting the ball to the incredible Ohio State playmakers and not making the big mistake should have Ohio State run away with this one. Tennessee will have to ugly this game up and force turnovers and keep this one low-scoring to have a chance. Ohio State seems to have an advantage at almost every spot outside of the Offensive line. They are at home and have an advantage with the temperature projected to start at 28 degrees and drop as the game goes on.

Picks

I don't have a great feel for this game. Ohio State has a clear edge in most spots as mentioned above but they also have a lot more pressure after losing to Michigan. The Buckeyes fanbase is ready to be done with Ryan Day after three straight losses to Michigan and this game would probably seal his fate. I just don't know that Tennessee is the team to pull the upset on the road, in the cold, but the way Ohio State's offense has looked against teams like Michigan and Penn State makes me leary about them covering. The Ohio State defense will likely lead them to a win but I don't think Tennessee will get shut out. Will Howard might give Tennessee a short field a few times and that could keep them in the game.

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