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College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions: Quarterfinals (2024)

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College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.

College Football Playoff Picks & Predictions

Penn State vs. Boise State: Fiesta Bowl

Boise State has made upsets a standard, but winning this game would likely be the biggest one to date.  Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty feels like he has something to prove after not winning the Heisman, and he's just 131 yards short of Barry Sanders’s season Rushing Record.  Penn State is standing in the way with the 7th best run defense this season, and they have only allowed one 100-yard rusher in the entire season.  Boise State QB Maddux Madsen has had a strong season and kept the ball clean with a 22-3 TD/INT ratio, but asking the Broncos OL to hold up against the Penn State pass rush isn't a great game plan.  Penn State might have one of the best defenses in the country, but the difference for them is likely on offense in this game.  Penn State looks to push upfront and impose their will with the run game and pass when necessary or when it's easy.  The one-two punch of Singleton and Allen at RB will lead the way with the Mackey Award-Winning TE Tyler Warren as the primary target when they decide to pass it.  PSU QB Drew Allar hasn't been as clean as Maddux, but he's faced a harder strength of schedule and has been kept clean with only 14 sacks allowed.  Boise State's tackling issue is their Achilles heel as they grade 133rd in Tackling according to PFF and have allowed 64 plays of 20+ yards (106th).  If Boise State gives up big plays early, this will be a long game for them.  The Broncos need to convert 3rd downs like they have all season on offense and improve the tackling to stay in this game and give themselves a chance to win it late.

Picks

  • BettingPros Projections: Penn State, Over
  • Bogman Picks – Favorite: Penn State Team Total Over 33.5, Penn State -11.5, Lean: Over

I don't think Boise State will be able to stop Penn State very often with the way Penn State has pushed teams around at the point of attack and the tackling track record of the Broncos.  I see Penn State getting up early in this game to try to make Boise State play point for point and pass the ball which would be going away from their strength in handing the ball to Jeanty.  These teams play in a similar fashion. Get the lead, pressure the passer, and create pressure/turnovers when the opponent has to play from behind and pass late.  Penn State is the better version of these similarly-built teams.  Penn State will try to get a quick lead and lean on it, and I think they can do it.

Texas  vs. Arizona State: Peach Bowl

The Longhorns run game pushed Clemson around for 292 rushing yards in the 1st round and that will be their plan in the Peach Bowl as well. Arizona State has the 6th best turnover margin in the country this season and the defense has forced 15 INTs and Texas QB Quinn Ewers has given the ball up 14 times (10 INTs, 4 Fumbles) this season. Texas should want to run the ball against Arizona State, the Sun Devils have been pushed around at the point of attack and Quinn Ewers turnover issues. Ewers will have time to pass as Arizona State ranks 132nd in Pass Rush grade from PFF and Texas has one of the best offensive lines in the country. Texas will also get back WR Isiah Bond to go with the emerging run game and targets like TE Gunnar Helm and WR Matthew Golden. ASU RB Cam Skattebo is the man who carried the Devils to the Playoff with a bye this season and will be the main focus of the Texas defense. Florida (197) and Miss State (150) are the only teams to put up 150 rushing yards against the Longhorns this season. Texas will focus on stopping the run and try to make Arizona State pass, which will lead to them throwing into the 1st rated Cover defense with 20 INTs and the 2nd fewest passing yards allowed. Texas also has the 3rd best Pass Rush Grade and 6th most Sacks. Arizona State will probably have to gamble a bit to stay on the field on offense, and they will have to try to create 3rd and longs to stay in it. The Longhorns let Clemson back in last week so the foot is less likely to come off the gas unless this game is out of reach late.

Picks

  • BettingPros Projections: Texas, Over
  • Bogman Picks – Favorite: Texas Team Total Over 31.5 – Lean: Texas -12.5, Over 51.5

The Longhorns should have issues in this game but Arizona State has had a lot of rest and are coming in fresh. This is just a terrible matchup for the Sun Devils, they are going to be pushed around on defense and the Longhorns should dominate time of possession by running the ball and they are likely to give Ewers a very clean pocket so he won't have to feel pressure that has led to turnovers. ASU QB Sam Leavitt has been so good this year but asking him to beat the best secondary and pass rush combo without his biggest target WR Jordyn Tyson is just asking too much. The Arizona State Team Total keeps dropping so I'll take Over 31.5 for the Longhorns as my favorite bet and I think they can pull away late to beat the spread too.

Ohio State vs. Oregon: Rose Bowl

We get a repeat of one of the best games of the 2024 season and in the Rose Bowl! The first meeting saw 964 yards of offense and 63 points! Oregon was able to keep QB Dillon Gabriel clean, and he had big throws of 69, 48, and two 32-yard passes. RB Jordan James had one of his 6 100-yard games, and Gabriel even chipped in with a rushing TD. Ohio State had similar success on offense with Will Howard also adding a rushing TD along with two passing TDs. The Buckeyes spread the ball to the big playmakers as Henderson (12), Judkins (13), Egbuka (12), and Jeremiah Smith (9), each getting the ball at least 9 times. In the 7 games since their first matchup, the Buckeyes have been dealing with injuries on the offensive line but the defensive hasn't allowed anyone more than 17 points or 300 yards. Ohio State played three playoff teams in that stretch in Penn State, Indiana and last week against Tennessee. Oregon had a scare against Wisconsin and gave up a lot of yards and points to Penn State but unlike Ohio State, they stayed undefeated and kept the #1 Seed. The upside of Ohio State is better than Oregon, the offense has the best group of skill position players in the country and the defense has made all opponents outside of Oregon look pathetic. The downside for the Buckeyes is turnovers from QB Will Howard and Oregon already has beat them and put almost 500 yards on them. Ohio State is going to have to run the ball the ball better in this one to get the win this time. Henderson had a 53-yard run against Oregon in the first meeting, but outside of that, the Buckeyes had 31 carries for 90 yards, just 2.9 yards per carry. Oregon keeps surviving the close games and this looks like another one.

Picks

I don't love this game. It was close the first time, and the spread is ridiculously close. I do feel like there are more outs for Oregon in this game. The Ducks can win shootouts, they did against Ohio State in the first game and they beat Penn State in the B1G CC game even after allowing 500 yards. Ohio State's best game beats anyone, which is why I'm more of a lean in this game and I don't have a favorite. Will Howard's performance against Michigan makes me lean toward the Ducks. Gabriel has only one game with 2 INTs this season and has 1 INT in his last 5 games. Ohio State is more likely to turn the ball over, so I'll take the points and roll with the Ducks in my least favorite pick of the week.

Georgia vs. Notre Dame: Sugar Bowl

This game has the most questions of the all the 2nd round matchups and the first one is what will Gunnar Stockton produce for the Bulldogs offense replacing Carson Beck. Beck didn't play great this season for Georgia but he is experienced and seemed to be playing his best ball going into the SEC Title game. Notre Dame showed their strength against Indiana but they haven't played anyone with an OL as strong as Georgia this year. More important for Notre Dame is how they are going to move the ball against the Georgia defense, as Riley Leonard hasn't had to throw for more than 229 yards all year, and Georgia is as healthy as they have been all year on defense. The Notre Dame run game will make or break this game, if they can get those big explosive plays and force Georgia to crowd the box and get the playmakers like Collins and Faison the ball and keep the Bulldogs defense on the field they can gas them out and pull away late. Should the Irish struggle to run the ball Georgia has the ability to beat a team with Field Goals as they did against Texas in the SEC Title game. Notre Dame has been inconsistent in the kicking game which may lead to some gambles on 4th down on the Georgia side of the field. This one looks to be a 'punt fest' with two strong defenses and a QB making his first start.

Picks

This is my favorite pick with my least favorite lean. The Georgia defense hasn't been perfect this year but Notre Dame is fairly one-dimensional and Riley Leonard hasn't needed to 'put the team on his back' by throwing the ball this season. Should Notre Dame not be able to gain much ground in the run game as they are accustomed to, I question if Leonard can pass them back into it and if they are settling for FGs the kicker Mitch Jeter is 8-15 this season. The Bulldogs offense has been good enough this season but we truly have no idea what to expect from Stockton in this game. The only thing I think we should expect from Georgia is a lot of handoffs and easy throws. Georgia is going to have to play flawless defense and make plays at the right time but I don't care about who wins, I'm going to be invested in the Under in this one.

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