College Football PrizePicks Bowl Game Predictions: Saturday (12/30)
This is one of my favorite articles because College Football's prop lines are softer than the NFL's.
During the regular season, we would look for matchups to correlate quarterbacks from the same contest and attack the game environment. Unfortunately, during Bowl season there are many player opt-outs and transfer portal submissions. This leaves us with inexperienced players and has us searching for consistency and certainty.
We will target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks.
Let's dive in.
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- NCAAF Betting Strategy
College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games (Dec. 30)
Glossary
- EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
- IsoPPP: Explosive plays
- Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down
- Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
- Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
- Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
- Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
- Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
- Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%
Payton Thorne (QB – Auburn) Passing Yards under 165.5