College Football PrizePicks Week 2 Player Predictions (2023)

by Andrew Mintner |
Sep 08, 2023

Welcome to a new article series where we will focus primarily on PrizePicks player predictions.

Our main strategy is to look at QBs, as their volume is the most predictable and less dependent on the game script. We will lean on situational data to best predict passing and rushing rates.

Let’s dive in!

Best Week 2 College Football PrizePicks Player Predictions

Glossary:

Standard Downs: first down, second and six or less, third/fourth down and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average pass rate is 60%)
PROE: Pass Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected pass rate in situations)
EPA: Expected Points Added (Efficiency measure)

Darren Grainger (QB – Georgia State) Under 215.5 Passing Yards

Georgia State -12.30% PROE on Standard Downs (123rd)
Georgia State -11.94% PROE on Passing Downs (122nd)

Georgia State is an up-tempo offense, but they are a run-first offense. As you can see, they establish the run on both Standard Downs and Passing Downs. They play a UConn team that is extremely similar in their attack, except they play at a significantly slower pace. UConn is -17.77% PROE on Standard Downs and -2.85% on Passing Downs. I just do not see enough possessions for Darren Grainger to go over this total.

Bo Nix (QB – Oregon) Over 259.5 Passing Yards

Oregon +5.81% PROE on Standard Downs (39th)
Oregon +2.05% PROE on Passing Downs (60th)

Oregon’s passing tendencies are not as high as USC’s or Washington’s, but they want to throw the ball in neutral situations. Lucky for them, Texas Tech subscribes to a similar concept. There will be an increase in plays for Oregon, and plenty of points will be scored in this game. This is the type of environment that an over prop can thrive in.

Jalen Milroe (QB – Alabama) Under 203.5 Passing Yards

Alabama -3.13% PROE on Standard Downs (94th)
Alabama -6.59% PROE on Passing Downs (106th)

Tommy Rees has brought his vanilla play-calling and tendencies to Alabama. In his tenure at Notre Dame, Rees implemented a safe, run-heavy approach and looks to do the same in Tuscaloosa. I am unsure if Milroe is an elite-level passer, but with Rees as his play-caller, it infinitely lowers his ceiling. Texas is an ascending defense that will likely keep this passing offense in check.

Rosso Brecht (QB – Iowa State) Over 162.5 Passing Yards

Iowa State +4.54% PROE Standard Downs (49th)
Iowa State +18.05% PROE Passing Downs (3rd)

This is an absurdly low total, and for good reason. Iowa will look to shorten the game with their rushing attack and stout defense. On the flip side, Iowa State will throw the ball in any game script that presents itself. Rosso Brecht doesn’t necessarily need to be extremely efficient; he just needs a certain amount of attempts to go over this total. If Brecht gets to 30 passing attempts, he will soar over this total.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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