College Football Week 12 Early Picks & Predictions (2025)

The College Football Playoff is gearing up for its second season of the 12-team playoff, so the stakes are increasingly higher as we move through November. Week 11 had most of the AP Top 10 improve their stock, excluding a loss by No. 7 BYU.

My College Football Week 11 Early Picks & Predictions (2025) turned a nice profit at 2-1. After a disappointing loss by Memphis at home on Friday night, we bounced back with a 2-0 Saturday. BYU and Texas Tech went way under 52.5 points, while Iowa managed to cover +5.5 during a disheartening 18-16 loss at Kinnick Stadium.

I’ve got three more early week picks and predictions for Week 12. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for additional betting analysis and free picks.

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College Football Week 12 Picks & Early Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Home	Away	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Alabama (4)	Oklahoma (12)	-7.0	-7.0	45.5	45.5	0	0
USC (19)	Iowa (20)	-6.5	-6.5	49.5	49.5	0	0
Georgia (5)	Texas (11)	-6.0	-6.0	49.5	47.5	0	-2.0

Oklahoma (12) vs. Alabama (4)

Quarterbacks John Mateer and Ty Simpson go head-to-head in Tuscaloosa on Saturday afternoon. Alabama is a full touchdown favorite at -7.0 against Oklahoma, while the point total sits at 45.5.

The Crimson Tide have taken their Week 1 loss in stride, rattling off eight straight wins ahead of this Week 12 home stand against the Sooners. Alabama now ranks 20th in scoring defense and 27th in scoring offense.

Oklahoma comes out of its bye with momentum following a 33-27 road win over Tennessee in Week 10. This time off certainly helped Mateer, who is recovering from a thumb injury on his throwing hand.

We’ve seen Alabama nearly blow the game a few times during their winning streak, including against Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. It took Simpson and company a while to get going against LSU in Week 11, while Oklahoma has alternated wins and losses since falling to Texas in mid-October.

No line movement has occurred on either side or the total so far. Since there are two top-20 defenses in this massive SEC clash, points will likely be at a premium. Let’s bet under 45.5 total points at -108 odds.

Pick: Under 45.5 (-108)

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Iowa (20) vs. USC (19)

We’re heading out west for a top-20 Big Ten duel between Iowa and USC. The Hawkeyes just lost to Oregon after taking a brief lead late in the game, so we’ll see how head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team responds on the road against the Trojans’ top-10 offense.

Under head coach Lincoln Riley, USC has logged over 40 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Jordan Maiava has improved this season and the Trojans’ rushing attack is also lethal, averaging 5.8 YPC and scoring two or more rushing touchdowns against every opponent except Notre Dame.

Early line movement went briefly in USC’s direction on the point spread from -6.5 to -7.0. Now, the line is back to USC -6.5, while the total has stayed flat at 49.5.

Iowa is 6-2-1 on the point spread in 2025. USC is 5-4, while both teams are 3-2 on the point total under in the last five games.

The Hawkeyes have held four straight Big Ten opponents under 115 passing yards, including Oregon in Week 11. However, they did surrender 7.3 YPC to the Ducks, which is likely going to be where USC makes Iowa pay.

Iowa’s offense, led by quarterback Mark Gronowski, leans heavily on its rushing attack. USC is allowing 4.3 YPC this season, surrendering 4.7 YPC or more in four of its last five games.

All three of the Hawkeyes’ losses have been by five points or less. USC hasn’t covered -6.5 in three of its previous five games, only achieving this feat against Michigan and Northwestern.

Let’s show Iowa respect and bet on them to cover +6.5 on the road at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-105)

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Texas (11) vs. Georgia (5)

Texas and Georgia is a fantastic prime-time game with College Football Playoff implications on the line. Arch Manning leads the Longhorns on the road to Athens to face a Bulldogs offense that caught fire against Mississippi State in Week 11.

Led by quarterback Gunner Stockton, Georgia has scored over 40 points in two of its previous three games. One of those was against Ole Miss, handing the Rebels their lone loss of the season.

Defensively, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart’s unit has been stingy against the run, holding opponents to 3.1 YPC. The pass defense has also stepped up, limiting their last four opponents to two total passing touchdowns, while surrendering less than 200 passing yards in three of these contests.

Texas has revived its season with a pair of overtime wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road. Then, a dominant home win over Vanderbilt gave the Longhorns momentum into a Week 11 bye.

Texas has a rest advantage but will be playing in a difficult road environment. It’s the Longhorns’ sixth game away from home in 2025, so they should be used to playing without the comfort of a home crowd.

Line movement has bounced between Georgia -6.0, -5.5, and -6.5. It’s currently priced at -6.0, while the point total has crept down two full points since opening at 49.5.

Let’s lay -6.0 with Georgia. The Bulldogs are a wagon right now and their only loss, albeit at home,  was during a narrow three-point margin to Alabama. Texas isn’t consistent enough to trust against a power house like Georgia, especially 2-7 ATS.

Pick: Georgia -6.0 (-112)

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