College Football Week 11 Early Picks & Predictions (2025)

The beginning of November unleashed a few upsets within the college football AP Top 25 in Week 10, as Miami (FL), Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech all lost outright on the road. Georgia and Oklahoma held on to improve their College Football Playoff stock. Texas built a massive lead over Vanderbilt early in the game to gain momentum heading into the final stretch of its schedule.

It was another 0-3 result for my College Football Week 10 Early Picks & Predictions. After turning a profit for most of the season, we’re currently in a rut, going 0-6 across the last two weekends.

Georgia Tech got blown out by NC State, losing their first game of the year, 48-36, failing to cover -6.5. Under 45.5 between Vanderbilt and Texas stood no chance after the Longhorns took a 24-10 lead into halftime, with the Commodores rallying late to lose 34-31. Cincinnati also saw its offense sputter against Utah, losing 45-14 to snap a seven-game winning streak, with +7.5 never even close.

There’s been some early line movement in a few top-25 matchups set for Week 11. Let’s dig out of this deficit and get back to our winning ways with three new picks, starting with Tulane vs. Memphis in the American Conference on Friday night. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay for additional betting analysis and free picks.

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College Football Week 11 Picks & Early Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tulane vs. Memphis (22)   

Tulane is coming off a blowout loss on the road to UTSA. The Green Wave were favorites but gave up a 94 percent completion rate and five passing touchdowns to the Roadrunners, while committing four turnovers on offense.

It gets even tougher for Tulane in Week 11 with a Friday night prime-time matchup against the No. 22 Memphis Tigers. Since rallying late to beat USF in Week 9, Memphis has gained momentum for a potential College Football Playoff bid.

The Tigers, led by QB Brendon Lewis, rank 12th in scoring offense, averaging 37.7 points per game. A stable of running backs and top wideout Cortez Braham, pose a mismatch for any defense in the American to contain.

Memphis is a touchdown favorite at home on Friday night against Tulane. The Green Wave haven’t forced a turnover in three straight games and just surrendered over 500 yards of offense to UTSA.

The point spread has moved half a point in favor of Tulane from +7.0 to +6.5. The total has stayed at 55.5. Memphis has covered -6.5 in six of nine games played this season. The Tigers also average 5.2 YPC and have logged 30 rushing touchdowns in their dominant run game.

Tulane’s turnover woes, combined with Memphis’ ability to grind out long possessions and finish them in the end zone, makes laying -6.5 with the Tigers an ideal price. Plus, Memphis is playing for its first potential College Football Playoff appearance, adding extra motivation to a team oozing confidence.

Pick: Memphis -6.5 (-112)

BYU (8) vs. Texas Tech (9)

There’s a massive Big 12 showdown between undefeated BYU and Texas Tech in Week 11. A noon kickoff means it’s going to be early in the morning when these two opponents kick off on Saturday, setting up for a memorable, high-stakes matchup.

The Cougars are on the road in Lubbock to face a Red Raiders offense ranked fourth in the nation for scoring offense, averaging 43.6 points per game in 2025. Texas Tech just flattened a surging Kansas State offense with a 43-20 road win during Week 10, forcing five turnovers and holding the Wildcats under 200 passing yards.

BYU is led by QB Bear Bachmeier and RB LJ Martin, combining for roughly 1,200 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. The Cougars are even better on defense, holding opponents to 17.0 points per game, while forcing a season-high four turnovers during a comeback road win against Iowa State in Week 9.

Texas Tech does not have a rest advantage in this game with BYU coming out of a Week 10 bye. The Red Raiders have outscored their last two opponents, 85-20, following their lone loss to Arizona State in Week 8.

Early line movement has gone in favor of Texas Tech, moving from -8.5 to -10.0. The point total has also dropped a full point from 53.5 to 52.5.

Both defenses are top-20 units in points allowed per game. BYU leans on its ground game, while Texas Tech is equally dominant on its backfield, recording between 40-50 carries in four of the last five games played.

Scoring may be a premium in this game. BYU held Devon Dampier and Utah’s top-tier offense to 21 points a couple of weeks ago. No opponent has thrown for more than two touchdowns or logged over two rushing touchdowns against BYU in 2025.

Let’s follow the steam and bet under 52.5 between BYU and Texas Tech in this highly-anticipated matchup in the Big 12.

Pick: Under 52.5 (-110)

Oregon (6) vs. Iowa 

A Big Ten matchup between No. 6 Oregon and Iowa could be one of the best games on the Week 11 slate. The Ducks are laying -5.5 on the road at Kinnick Stadium, while the point total sits low at 43.5.

Early line movement has gone in the direction of the Hawkeyes, moving from +7.5 to +5.5. Iowa boasts a significantly improved offense compared to previous years, thanks in part to QB Mark Gronowski, who has a 4.1 YPC average with 11 rushing touchdowns in 2025.

Iowa lost 20-15 against No. 2 Indiana; otherwise, the Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home this season. Their last outing was a dominant 41-3 rout of Minnesota, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Golden Gophers to 133 yards of total offense.

Oregon played flat against Wisconsin in its last game. The Ducks cruised to a 21-7 win over the reeling Badgers, grinding out over 200 rushing yards.

Both Iowa and Oregon had a bye in Week 10, so these teams are well-rested and had an extra week of practice to prepare for this matchup. This will only be Oregon’s fourth road game.

In the last four games, Iowa has held its opponents to four total touchdowns. Wisconsin, Penn State, and Minnesota were all held below 270 total yards of offense. No team has averaged more than 3.8 YPC against the Hawkeyes in 2025.

Oregon’s preference to establish the run will be put to the test in this matchup. Iowa is an underrated team that can generate explosive plays via its rushing attack. The Ducks have allowed 4.8 YPC and 4.0 YPC to Northwestern and Penn State, both on the road, while only forcing more than one turnover once in their last five matchups.

The Hawkeyes nearly upset the red-hot Hoosiers at home earlier this season, and this feels like a spot where Iowa can finish strong and win outright. Let’s grab the points with Iowa as a home underdog at +5.5 against Oregon.

Pick: Iowa +5.5 (-110)