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College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fresno State vs. Nevada (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 12 odds, picks, and predictions for this weekend’s game: Fresno State vs. Nevada.

And check out our other game previews and picks for Week 12 of the College Football season:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 12 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 12 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fresno State vs. Nevada

Fresno State is HOT, and the Bulldogs are in the midst of a 5-game-win streak which also saw they’re starting QB Jake Haener return from injury three weeks ago. Nevada is on an eight-game losing streak after winning their first two games. The only game Fresno State lost with Jake Haener on the field from start to finish was Week 2 against an Oregon State team that is now ranked. It’s not surprising to see the Wolf Pack ranked low in grades and statistically, but one stat did catch my eye as they grade out above average in coverage and rank 59th against the pass allowing only 221 yards per game.

When I dug a little deeper into the schedule, I noticed that seven of their nine games against FBS opponents have been against offenses that currently rank 101st or worse in passing yards per game, and 4 of those seven are below 120th. San Jose State is by far the best passing team Nevada has played, and they surrendered 35 points and 340 yards passing. That wasn’t even Nevada’s worst game against the pass as they gave up 55 points and over 400 passing yards to the 9-1 FCS Incarnate Word Cardinals in their 3rd game of the season. Fresno State has averaged just over 38 points per game in the five games Jake Haener has started and finished, and I feel like they’ll sail past that total in this game.

Describing Nevada as inconsistent on offense is probably doing them a favor, as they have scored more than 20 points only once in their last seven games and only three times all season. 1st year HC Ken Wilson is doing everything he can, but when last years HC Jay Norvell left for Colorado State, he took eight transfers from Nevada, with 6 of those being offensive pieces. To counteract the mass exodus, Nevada brought in 10 offensive transfers, including their starting QB Shane Illingsworth, leading WR BJ Casteel, and three Offensive Lineman that have seen at least 150 snaps (Bryce Peterson, Kai Arneson, and Joey Capra). Ken Wilson was put in a bad spot trying to install a new playbook AND new players at the same time, and it’s gone about as expected for anyone in that position. Fresno State is firmly middling on defense, grading low but ranking decently statistically. The Bulldogs can be had on the ground as they are giving up over 167 yards per game (94th), but Nevada is barely mustering over 110 yards per game, ranking 114th in the nation.  

Fresno State is going to beat the brakes off Nevada in this game, they are humming offensively with Jake Haener back, and Nevada is sputtering to the finish line. This will be the fifth game in which Nevada has been a 20+ point underdog, and they have only covered once in the previous four. Fresno State also needs to win this game to keep their lead in the MWC West Division and potentially meet Boise State again in the MWC Championship game, this time with a healthy Jake Haener. These teams are heading in opposite directions, and I think this is going to be a dismantling of Nevada by Fresno State as they take one step closer to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game!

Fresno State -22.5 @ Nevada and OVER 54

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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