Top 5 College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions (2024)

by Scott Bogman |
Nov 21, 2024

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for each and every week of CFB action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 13. Check out all of his top picks and predictions below.

College Football Week 13 Picks & Predictions

Indiana vs. Ohio State

This is the biggest game of the year for Indiana and the value is on them as this line has opened up toward the Buckeyes, despite the season-ending injury to starting Center Seth McLaughlin. Indiana will need to hold the big playmaking WRs from making big plays in this game. Indiana is 5th in 10+ yard plays allowed and are Top-15 or better in 20+, 30+, 40+ and have only allowed one play over 50 yards all season. The Ohio State defense is even better in regards to big plays allowed, this one should be low-scoring and competitive. The Buckeyes being down to starting OL should help this Indiana defense get after QB Will Howard who is 55/87 qualified QBs in PFFs Passing Grade when Under pressure. Kurtis Rourke will certainly face pressure against this Ohio State front but he has the highest grade Under Pressure among qualified QBs this season. Indiana has been efficient, coach Cig has them playing four full quarters every week (6th in 4th quarter scoring, 3rd in 4th quarter scoring allowed) and with two weeks to prepare we should see they're best effort. Ohio State should win this game but injuries and a look-ahead spot to Michigan all add up to Indiana at least covering this big spread.

Pick: Indiana +13.5

Ole Miss vs. Florida

Florida is a better team now than they were early in the season and they are coming off an impressive win against LSU but the system is still showing value toward Ole Miss. Florida beat LSU with 7 sacks and not allowing LSU to score. LSU failed twice to convert on 4th down, missed a Field Goal, fumbled and were forced to settle for three points on three different occasions. Florida still wasn't impressive on offense, holding the ball for only 18:17 and only collecting 339 yards. Mississippi isn't likely to be held to such a low total with time of possession as they 4th in scoring offense and 2nd in Total yards per game. Ole Miss also is a better team than they were earlier in the season and since Halfime of the Oklahoma game have put up 107 points in 10 quarters. QB Jaxson Dart is healthy after a scare in the Georgia game and the Rebs get a boost with WR Tre Harris returning (5th most rec yards despite missing 3 games – 987). Mississippi's biggest advantage is the front 7 of the defense that has harassed QBs and leads the country with 46 sacks. Florida may be improved but Ole Miss has too. With two weeks to prepare the Rebels should beat the Gators on both sides of the ball like Texas did two weeks ago.

Pick: Ole Miss -10

BYU vs. Arizona State

Arizona State has turned up the scoring over their last three games averaging 33.7 points per game in their last three games after scoring more than 30 only once in their first four Big 12 games. QB Sam Leavitt has thrown for three TDs in each of his last three games and the Devils rush offense is averaging 190.5 yards per game this season. ASU RB Cam Skattebo is 9th in rushing yards per game this season and returned last week after missing a week with a shoulder injury. BYU hasn't been playing their best on offense but Retzlaff is a way different QB against pressure. His adjusted completion percentage drops from 75.7% to 53.4% and his Turnover Worthy Play Rate goes from 2.1% to 8.2%. ASU has had improvements on offense, but the defense has only 4 sacks and 38 pressures over this three-game win streak, and 18 of those pressures and three of the sacks were against UCF and redshirt freshman QB Dylan Rizk making his 2nd collegiate start. Arizona State is 133/134 teams in Pass Rush grade according to PFF so Retzlaff should be able to regain his traction. This should be a tight game but scoring should be expected.

Pick: OVER 48.5

Colorado vs. Kansas

Colorado has played like a team possessed offensively in the four games after losing to Kansas State. The Bufs have averaged 39.5 points per game and 400 yards in those games and while Kansas has been stacking wins they haven't been slowing many teams down defensively. Kansas has been playing well on offense with over 400 yards against Kansas State, 532 yards, and 42 points against Iowa State, but they ran into a tough defense in BYU and only had 242 yards and 17 points but still won the game. Kansas has had problems defending the pass, and Colorado brings in a Top-10 passing offense that throws at a 69.1% clip. Colorado scored 49 points with only 24:22 of possession against Utah last week and should come in focused with a chance at a playoff spot. Kansas is a good team that started slow and is playing well right now, but the advantage is toward the over, and Colorado should be the bigger part of that.

Pick: OVER 59.5

Wake Forest vs. Miami

Miami is 7-2-1 playing to the Over this season. The two games that they played to the Under were when they failed to cross 37 points. Wake is currently 130th of 134 teams in passing yards allowed, and Miami is 1st in passing offense. Miami had their worst game of the season offensively against Georiga Tech two weeks ago but still had 436 yards total. Wake Forest is allowing 92.5% of red zone trips to score (118th) and is 122nd in red zone trips allowed per game. Miami has a great defense in terms of roster strength but they are very middling in performance (57th in PPG allowed, 36th in Team Defensive Performance with a Top-10 roster). Wake's offense matches up well with Miami as they bring the 35th best passing offense into this game with QB Hank Bachmeier starting. Bachmeier has the 3rd highest adjusted completion percentage when being pressured which should help him in this game. Miami can't be trusted to cover a big line with the defense giving up so many points, but with the strength of both of these offenses matching the weakness of the opposing defense, the Over is a solid play.

Pick: OVER 64.5

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