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College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Prediction: New Mexico vs. UTEP (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 3 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: New Mexico vs. UTEP.

And check out our other Week 3 College Football Game Previews & Picks:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 3 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: New Mexico vs. UTEP

My numbers are showing a little more than a touchdown of line value on New Mexico. That may surprise some. The Lobos went 13-42 over the previous five seasons, while UTEP went bowling last year. But whereas New Mexico has given signs that they could improve upon last year’s 3-9 record, UTEP has very clearly taken multiple steps backward.

New Mexico’s offense stinks. New QB Miles Kendrick is similar to old QB Terry Wilson in that he can run around a little bit but has a peashooter arm. The Lobos want to run. The good news is that UNM has decent RB talent, plus Kendrick’s legs. The bad news is the Lobos’ offensive line is truly horrid.

But this is an offense that can do its job against bad defenses. It’s a straightforward job: control the ball, run the play clock down before snapping, don’t put the defense in bad spots. New Mexico’s defense is decent for the G5. Last year’s unit improved from 32.6 PPG allowed to 28.4 while finishing a solid No. 44 in total defense.

Seven starters returned, along with eight of the top-10 tacklers, so the further improvement was expected. That has been the case in the early going. The Lobos shut out FCS Maine in the opener and held Boise State to 318 yards last week.

That unit is going to provide problems for UTEP’s offense. The Miners’ 2021 resurgence was spurred by its passing game. But future NFL WR Jacob Cowing transferred to Arizona over the offseason. No underselling it: That was a devastating development.

The Miners still want to pass – QB Gavin Hardison has attempted 117 passes through three games, while the top-two RBs have combined for 62 carries – but they no longer have an offensive playmaker that scares defenses.

Last year, Hardison completed 55% of his passes for 8.4 YPA. Through three games, two against the lowly defenses of North Texas and New Mexico State, Hardison is completing 50% for 5.9 YPA. UTEP was whipped by UNT (31-13), and was out-gained by 37 yards in last week’s 20-13 win over lowly New Mexico State (No. 129 in my power rankings).

For a bad team to beat New Mexico, it must stop the run by exploiting New Mexico’s bad OL. It has to generate offense against a decent defense either through rushing explosion or passing efficiency. I’m not sure UTEP is capable of any of the three anymore. The Miners’ run defense ranks No. 85 or worse SP+ success rate, efficiency, explosiveness, and power success rate.

I like the Lobos to spring the small upset.

Pick: New Mexico (+3)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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