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College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Toledo at Ohio State (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 3 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Toledo at Ohio State.

And check out our other Week 3 College Football Game Previews & Picks:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 3 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: Toledo at Ohio State

Ohio State’s offense has had a relatively sluggish start (66 points against Notre Dame and Arkansas State). A part of that was playing without star WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the last seven quarters. Smith-Njigba suffered a leg injury in the 1Q of the opener against Notre Dame that kept him out of last week’s win over ASU. OSU WR Julian Fleming also missed the first two weeks with an undisclosed injury.

Fleming was and is expected to return this weekend. After initially expressing pessimism that Smith-Njigba would be ready for Toledo, HC Ryan Day has changed his tune in recent days. If Day is to be believed, JSN now has a strong chance of being active on Saturday against Toledo.

I like the Rockets anyway. I’m bullish on Toledo – they were one of my heaviest “over” bets in the win total market over the summer. The Rockets returned seven starters on offense and eight on defense.

Toledo’s offense rarely turns the ball over, and it can both throw and run. The Rockets’ defense is one of the G5’s best. Toledo, 2-0, has obliterated FCS Long Island and UMass by a combined score of 92-10 in the early going.

At full force on both sides, my system sets this spread at Ohio State -27.4. But there’s also reason to believe that Ohio State – even though it could be healthier than it has been all year – won’t throw the kitchen sink at Toledo.

OSU HC Ryan Day has repeatedly told the media that the Buckeyes need to run the ball at a high level to win the CFP, and he’s willing to feed his runners more than neutral observers would expect under the banner of that idea – at least for now.

Day’s new DC, Jim Knowles, said after the opening-week win over Notre Dame that the Buckeyes played “rather basic” defense and there were a “lot of things we haven’t shown.” That remained the case after the win over Arkansas State. It would be a surprise if Knowles unleashed the dogs and put his wrinkles on tape in this matchup. Particularly with Wisconsin up next.

I think Toledo puts up a fight and keeps it within the number.

Pick: Toledo (+32)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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