College Football Week 3 Odds & Picks: Sleepers & Longshots
We have already seen a few teams experience a fall from grace just two weeks into the college football season. But that doesn’t mean finding potential long-shot winners will be more challenging this week. Why not? Because some teams look great on paper, not because they are great. They just haven’t played anyone.
This week, we will focus on matchups in which one team may not be as good as its record and stat sheet would otherwise indicate.
Of course, as you consider betting on one of these picks or another long shot, remember this: the spread exists for a reason. While these bets may have a shot at paying out if the gridiron gods happen to smile on the team(s) you bet on, the betting favorite is probably the better team.
But the better team doesn’t always win...
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College Football Week 3 Long Shot Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Air Force (+600) vs. Baylor (-15.5)
- McLane Stadium in Waco, TX
- 7:30 p.m. ET on FS!
- Baylor is 3-0 all-time vs. Air Force.
It is not easy to know what we’ll see from the Baylor Bears. They dominated an FCS school in Week 1 and looked great on both sides of the ball, as they should, considering the competition. Utah dominated the game last week until Cam Rising was knocked out of the game. With the offense stagnant, the Utes’ defense was called upon to get the job done.
While Baylor had some success on offense in the second half, they never really threatened.
Like Baylor, Air Force played and defeated an FCS school in Week 1. However, while the score does not indicate the win was as dominant as Baylor’s, it’s important to remember that the service academies are run-dominant teams. The scores usually don’t get out of hand. They lost to San Jose State in Week 2. While the offense has not looked great, the defense has held opponents to 23 points this year.
We have not seen enough of both teams to make one a heavy favorite. At the same time, it is hard to say we’ve seen enough offense from Air Force to think they’ll be competitive against a decent Big 12 team like Baylor.
Air Force’s defense will keep the Falcons in the game. If Baylor’s quarterback Dequan Finn (he has thrown two) can gift the Falcons with a pick or two, that may be the break Air Force needs to get the win. Even if the Bears win, do not count on them to cover.
Our Pick: Air Force Falcons
Purdue (+295) vs. Notre Dame (-10)
- Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
- 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
- Purdue’s last win vs. Notre Dame was in 2007, 33-19 in Lafayette.
It is impossible to know just how good (or bad) Purdue is this year. Yes, they destroyed Indiana State, but the Sycamores are a dreadful team. They should have done exactly what they did. What does that say for their chances against Notre Dame? Well-not much. We don’t know enough to make any definitive judgment call.
However, we know a few things about the Fighting Irish, like this little nugget-they are vulnerable. Notre Dame’s defense is okay; it is much better against the pass (No. 40 in the country) than the run (No. 100), but their offense is struggling. It is not running the ball well, and its passing game has been downright bad.
Quarterback Riley Leonard is a gamer and a solid athlete, but he is not much of a passer. On the other hand, Purdue has former Texas quarterback Hudson Card at QB. Card was 24-of-25 for 273 yards and four touchdowns against Indiana State (who you can’t compare to Notre Dame).
If the defense can keep Notre Dame from getting out to an early lead, the Boilermakers may have a shot. Why? Because if Purdue gets out to an early lead, Leonard will have a hard time bringing them back. Notre Dame is just not built to make comebacks. Should Purdue lose as expected, Notre Dame will not cover the spread.
Our Pick: Purdue Boilermakers