College Football Week 5 Odds Pick & Prediction: East Carolina vs. South Florida (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 5 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: East Carolina vs. South Florida.
Check out our other best college football bets for Week 5:
- Tulane vs. Houston
- San Diego State vs. Boise State
- Washington vs. UCLA
- Alabama vs. Arkansas
- Michigan vs. Iowa
- Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
- LSU vs. Auburn
- Arizona State vs. USC
- NC State vs. Clemson
- Oklahoma State vs. Baylor
- Oklahoma vs. TCU
- UTSA vs. Middle Tennessee State
- Michigan State vs. Maryland
- Northwestern vs. Penn State
- Colorado vs. Arizona
- Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina
- UL Monroe vs. Arkansas State
- Florida State vs. Wake Forest
- Texas State vs. James Madison
- Texas vs. West Virginia
- Rutgers vs. Ohio State
- Old Dominion vs. Liberty
- New Mexico State vs. FIU
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 5 Early Odds, Picks & Prediction: East Carolina vs. South Florida
This game was moved from Tampa to Boca Raton – Florida Atlantic’s stadium – due to Hurricane Ian. That robbed USF of home-field advantage – but the market doesn’t seem to be accounting for that.
It’s hardly the only reason we like ECU here.
The betting market appears to be a little down on ECU after the Pirates got upset 23-20 last weekend by Navy. But that was fluky. ECU finished with an 80% postgame win expectancy. Prior to that, ECU 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. That included a 21-20 loss to a very good NC State team that was a true coin-flip outcome. ECU finished with a 51% postgame win expectancy.
Because of all that, the Pirates actually sit at 3.2 second-order wins (+1.2). They’ve been one of the unluckiest teams in the nation thus far.
USF, meanwhile, was annihilated by BYU and Louisville (0% postgame win expectancies). The public remembers the Bulls taking Florida to the wire in a 31-28 near-miss loss. But USF was lucky to be that close, finishing with a 10% postgame win expectancy.
New USF QB Gerry Bohanon, a Baylor transfer who the Bears didn’t want back, has been terrible so far. He’s completing only 53.4% of his passes on a brutal 2.8 adjusted yards per attempt, with an eyesore 0/6 TD/INT ratio. USF also has a poor receiving corps. The Bulls have one of the worst passing attacks in all of America.
To shut down the Bulls’ offense, you merely have to stop its rushing attack, particularly the explosive runs. ECU’s defensive strength is its run defense. The Pirates rank No. 36 in defensive rushing success rate and No. 11 in marginal explosiveness.
ECU’s offense has a straightforward profile in that the rushing offense isn’t efficient. Still, it generates explosive plays… while the passing offense is extremely efficient but doesn’t hit a ton of explosive passes downfield.
USF happens to rank dead-last in the nation in rushing marginal explosiveness (No. 131). And while USF’s pass defense prevents explosive plays, it’s extremely easy to nick (No. 109 success rate, No. 121 marginal efficiency).
ATL believes we’re getting almost four points of line value on the favorite. Not only that, the favorite appears to match up exceedingly well with an underdog that’ll have its mind in two places at once on Saturday.
Pick: ECU -8
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting “against the spread†refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
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