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College Football Week 5 Odds Pick & Prediction: Florida State vs. Wake Forest (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 5 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Florida State vs. Wake Forest.

Check out our other best college football bets for Week 5:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 5 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 5 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Florida State vs. Wake Forest

Wake Forest is getting some love from the market after pushing Clemson to the brink in last week’s overtime loss. This week, the Demon Deacons are walking into the eye of the storm (Hurricane Ian) to play Florida State.

Saturday’s inclement conditions might wreak havoc on both teams’ passing attacks. Forecasts at kick call for 12 mph winds with a 20% chance of rain. Any deleterious meteorological effect on passing would be far, far more problematic for Wake than FSU in this matchup.

We can officially say it now: FSU HC Mike Norvell has the ‘Noles offense up and running to his old Memphis standards. The running game is nasty, explosive, and efficient. And the passing attack can beat the single coverage it consistently gets because of the attention you have to pay the rushing attack, underneath and over-the-top.

Believe it or not, QB Jordan Travis has led FSU to No. 8 EPA/pass so far. Letting Travis lollipop balls over single coverage to 6’7 WR Johnny Wilson is not fair.

But it’s that FSU rushing attack that is really going to give Wake headaches. The Seminoles rank top-13 in the country in both rushing success rate and rushing efficiency. In short: It’s impossible to keep the Seminoles offense off schedule now that it can block and pass.

Wake Forest’s defense doesn’t stand a chance of doing so. Wake ranks No. 51 run/EPA – but that mediocre standing is propped up by having played VMI, Vanderbilt, and Liberty. Wake’s opponent-adjusted advanced metrics paint a clearer picture.

The Demon Deacons rank No. 70 in defensive rushing success rate and No. 95 in defensive rushing explosion. In short: Wake struggles to keep average rushing attacks off schedule.

FSU’s run defense is its defensive weakness. But here’s the beautiful thing: Wake Forest is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation. The Demon Deacons rank No. 116 in EPA/run. And incredibly, Wake ranks No. 100 or worse in all of the following run offense categories: success rate, efficiency, explosion, opportunity rate, power success rate, and stuff rate.

Where FSU’s defense excels is against the pass. Between that and the expected inclement conditions, there’s a real possibility that WF QB Sam Hartman has a down game. Even if he doesn’t, it’s going to be hard to go score-for-score with FSU’s offensive barrage. Especially with Wake coming off that body-blow loss to Clemson.

Pick: FSU -6.5 

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

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