College Football Week 5 Picks: Army vs. East Carolina (Thursday)
We're already into Week 5 of the college football season, and the action gets started on Thursday night with a conference showdown in the AAC between the Army Black Knights (1-2, 0-1 AAC) and the East Carolina Pirates (2-2, 0-0 AAC).
Below, I'll dive into my betting analysis and let you know where I'm laying my money on this standalone Thursday night game. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, NC. Check out our top college football picks below.
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Thursday's Best College Football Picks: Week 5
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Army Black Knights (+5.5) vs. East Carolina Pirates (-5.5) | O/U 52.5 (-115/-105)
Coach Jeff Monken's Army squad is fresh off a 45-38 barnburning overtime loss at home to North Texas. In response to the 83-point outburst, the oddsmakers have set an inflated total of 52.5 points for this Thursday's conference showdown in Greenville. This is Army's highest total of the season thus far, so I'm going to buy back and take the under while we're working with an elevated number. Give me the under.
Army got out of its groove early last weekend, fumbling on its first two possessions. They were down 21-0 in the first quarter, which basically changed the entire dynamic of the game. If the Black Knights can clean up the turnover issues, I anticipate seeing a vintage, run-heavy grinder of a game from Army.
The Black Knights are still second in the country in rushing play percentage (84.15%). They'll take on a Pirates side ranked 39th in rushing yards allowed per attempt (3.6) and 34th in rushing yards allowed per game (114.7). Should East Carolina's run defense hold up moderately well, we're going to see the clock melting quickly on Thursday night.
Aside from its 56-3 victory over FCS-level Campbell, East Carolina has seen all three of its other games finish with 47 points or fewer. They're 3-0 to the under in games against FBS-level competition. On the offensive side, the Pirates are averaging only 22.7 points per game in those three FBS games.
All things considered, this total of 52.5 points is a bit lofty. If there's any semblance of defense or if Army's offense can manage a couple of eight-minute drives, then it's going to be tough for these teams to combine for seven or more touchdowns. Let's lock in the under.
Bet: Under 52.5 Points (-105)