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College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (2022)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 6 odds, picks, and predictions for this week’s game: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas.

Here are other game previews for Week 6:

And check out our other Week 6 College Football betting content:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 6 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas

Arkansas is in a terrible situation, traveling to an opponent they match up poorly against. And Arkansas may be playing without their star quarterback.

Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson has not practiced this week as of Wednesday. The Hogs have been pretty mum about his status. So much so that it’s getting weird. HC Sam Pittman on Wednesday corrected a reporter who asked about Jefferson being in the concussion protocol.

“I didn’t say that,” Pittman said. “Anybody else?” The rest of Pittman’s presser, he was affable, joking about bands and jukeboxes. Usually polite, Pittman, during one answer, said “Bless you” to a reporter who’d sneezed. He was only short that one time. Is it any coincidence that it was a response to the only question he was asked that day that mattered?

Jefferson took a huge shot and suffered a head injury last week. Pittman can say what he wants, and HIPAA laws certainly allow him to say as little as he ends up saying. But if Jefferson weren’t in concussion protocol right now, Arkansas’ team doctor would be facing a fate much worse than the Dolphins’ doctor who was just fired for his handling of Tua Tagovailoa’s injury.

Pittman went on to say that he thought Jefferson would travel with the team to Starkville. This, too, was a telling quote. If Pittman thought Jefferson was playing on Saturday, he’d know – not think – Jefferson was traveling to said game.

A reporter halfway through the presser asked a clever question that revealed another telling Pittman quote. Asked what practice day during the week was most important in terms of deciding on an injured player’s availability, Pittman said: “Wednesday is always our day, they have to do something by Wednesday, or we pretty much count them out for the game.” Again: Jefferson did not practice on Wednesday.

No way to sugarcoat it: Arkansas’ quarterback situation is ugly if Jefferson can’t go. The team previously moved former QB Malik Hornsby to WR, leaving transfer Cade Fortin as the primary backup. Fortin could not hold onto the starting job at USF. In 131 career attempts, Fortin has completed less than 50% of his passes for fewer than five yards per attempt and a 1/3 TD/INT ratio. The prospect of QB depth without Jefferson was so bad at the position that Pittman elected to move Hornsby back to QB this week.

Cade Fortin is not an FBS-caliber quarterback. Pittman referred to Fortin as the “throwing” backup, which tells you all you need to know about Hornsby’s passing development if you didn’t get the referendum from the move to receiver.

Pittman became less cagey when discussing hypothetical QB plans if Jefferson is out against MSU, stating that both Fortin and Hornsby would take snaps. It seemed like he had thought that one through.

My tea-leaf reading says Jefferson has little chance of playing, barring an enormous late-week breakthrough. If he doesn’t, Arkansas won’t be able to pass. This would allow Mississippi State’s strong defense to devote all its resources to shutting down the run.

On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State’s passing offense finally appears to be close to achieving singularity under Mike Leach for the first time. The Bulldogs get the ball into space and force the defense to tackle one-on-one.

Arkansas’ biggest team weakness – when Jefferson is healthy – is either the pass defense (SP+ No. 102) or tackling (PFF No. 122). Arkansas is without both starting safeties from last year, one to transfer and the other to a season-ending injury, and its corners have been poor.

It would be shocking if Mississippi State couldn’t do anything it wanted on offense. And if Jefferson doesn’t play, Arkansas will play offense against a good defense with both hands tied behind its back.

Lastly, Mississippi State has outscored opponents 52-7 in the first quarter this year – first-quarter and/or first-half bets should also be considered.

Pick: Mississippi State -9 (1Q: MSU -3)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting “against the spread” refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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