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College Football Week 6 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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Week 5 gave us another close one as Michigan State faltered late, blowing a lead and ultimately falling to Iowa. We’ll lick our wounds and move on to Week 6. There are plenty of great spots this week with a lot of heavy conference favorites. Early in the season, we’re still getting crazy lines. Teams that are perennially strong play up-and-coming programs with few data points between them. We have a few of those opportunities here. Let’s take a look at some of my favorites.

Best Week 6 College Football Longshot Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Maryland (+810) at Ohio State (-19.5)

This line is way off to me. Ohio State looked to be for real in their win over Notre Dame. However, I still have a lot of concerns about their offense. The Buckeyes needed 15 plays at the end of the game to drive 65 yards and punch the ball in against 10 Notre Dame defenders after they were unable to move the ball for much of that game. Games against Indiana and Youngstown State saw their immense talent win out, but not without some shaky play by QB Kyle McCord. Maryland is a much-improved team, especially on defense where they’ve held three straight Power 5 teams to 17 or fewer points. I don’t think the Buckeyes are poised to light up the scoreboard like they have in years past.

Maryland is more capable of putting up crooked numbers than they have in a long time. QB Taulia Tagovailoa has put up incredible numbers in his third year under Mike Locksley. He’s compiled 1464 yards and 13 TDS already this season. The defenses the Terps have played wouldn’t be considered elite, but they’ve put up 31+ in each game and have won each game by 3+ scores. This Maryland offense is as dangerous as ever to finally knock off a top opponent in the Big Ten.

Years of bias are cooked into this line. Playing on the road, especially in the Horseshoe in Columbus, can be difficult for any opponent, but this young Maryland team is led by a seasoned veteran at quarterback. The Buckeyes haven’t proven they can pop on offense like they have in past years against Power 5 competition and so long as Maryland can keep this game within striking distance, they can pull off one of the biggest upsets in college football this season.

Rutgers (+385) at Wisconsin (-13.5)

Hear me out, this Rutgers team could be competitive. HC Greg Schiano has been building something in Piscataway and the fruits are about to be realized. Years of college football bias tells us that Wisconsin over Rutgers as a two-touchdown favorite makes sense, but in 2023 I’m not sure it does.

Wisconsin has looked solid. Three strong wins over Purdue, Georgia Southern, and Buffalo look a lot less impressive when you realize those defenses rank 66th, 115th, and 131st in SP+ defense, respectively. Rutgers sits 43rd on that list, closer to a Washington State defense that held the Badgers to 91 yards on 29 attempts in a 31-22 loss for Wisconsin. Even under new HC Luke Fickell, the Badgers still want to set an identity running the ball. If Rutgers can make that difficult then they can keep Wisconsin out of the endzone.

The Rutgers offense hasn’t been anything to get excited about, but they are capable of scoring. They’ve put up 35 or more in three of five games this year. QB Gavin Wimsatt has a poor completion percentage but his 6.9 yards per attempt is actually better than Wisconsin’s QB Tanner Mordecai. Wimsatt’s big play ability is the key for any team looking to pull off a huge upset. He’ll get his shot Saturday to pick off a strong Big Ten team for a program-shaping win under Schiano.

LSU (-4.5) at Missouri (+164)

LSU had high hopes of being a National Title contender in 2023. So far, on one side of the ball they’ve lived up to the hype. Their offense has been elite, led by QB Jayden Daniels who has wowed both with his arm and his legs. Back-and-forth games against Florida State and Ole Miss, as well as routs in their other matchups, show this offense is firing on all cylinders. Missouri will be in for a long day if they can’t slow down this LSU attack. However, football is a game of offense AND defense.

Have we not seen enough from this LSU Tiger team to know they don’t deserve to be laying this many points on the road against a ranked opponent? LSU ranks 131st in EPA on passing plays. To put it short, they’ve been atrocious and cannot stop anyone. QB Brady Cook for Missouri should have a field day. He’s put up 340+ yards in the last three Missouri games, as well as eight TDs and zero INTs. They don’t have the household names of a Florida State or Ole Miss offense, but this Missouri offense has been every bit as explosive. If LSU wants to make this a track meet, Missouri will oblige.

This won’t be an easy win for Missouri, but it won’t be easy for LSU either. If the Bayou Bengals take a lead, they’ll constantly be looking over their shoulder at another good offense in Missouri. If Mizzou takes a lead, I don’t think LSU can get enough stops to get back in it. Either way, this is a game where the last team with the ball will win. In a coin-flip-style game, I’m taking the home team and riding the Missouri Tigers to pull off the longshot upset.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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