College Football Win Totals: Week 4 (2024)

by Matthew MacKay |
Sep 17, 2024

College football futures markets are a great way to gain some action, and possibly value, on a particular FBS program for the remainder of the 2024-25 college football season. For example, Florida State, a top-ten-ranked team entering its opener against Georgia Tech, is now 0-3, cashing under 9.5 total wins before Week 4 even kicks off.

I’ve found three live win totals each worth a one-unit stake before Week 4 kicks off. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

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College Football Win Totals: Week 4

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Miami (FL) O/U 10.5 Regular Season Wins

We need to take advantage of this line before it gets any shorter when it comes to Miami’s current projected win total. The Hurricanes are dominating and have a cakewalk schedule in the ACC, as Florida State is no longer the dominant threat many anticipated coming into 2024.

QB Cam Ward is shredding defenses and only one-ranked opponent remains in the regular season, which is a mid-October road game against No. 19 Louisville. Georgia Tech and Syracuse may be a bit uncomfortable in the final three weeks of the season, but -138 is good value to acquire based on how well Miami has fared, starting with their 41-17 throttling of Florida on the road in Week 1.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-138)

Alabama O/U 10.5 Regular Season Wins

New Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has seemingly unlocked QB Jalen Milroe, who has at least two rushing touchdowns in all three games played this season. The Crimson Tide went into Madison, Wisconsin and shut down the Badgers, while Milroe showcased his arm, tossing three touchdowns in a 42-10 victory.

There was a bit of sluggishness against USF in the first half of Week 2, but Alabama has otherwise looked virtually unstoppable on either side of the line of scrimmage. We’re getting plus odds on Alabama to finish with one or fewer losses due to their upcoming schedule, with a Week 5 matchup against No. 2 Georgia, followed by road games at No. 6 Tennessee, No. 16 LSU, and No. 15 Oklahoma.

I believe Alabama beats Georgia off a Week 4 bye at home, then they may lose to Tennessee on the road as their one loss during the regular season. Keep in mind, DeBoer led Washington to an undefeated season in 2023, so he knows what it takes to lead a top program like Alabama. Let’s grab +142 on over 10.5 wins for Alabama despite a difficult upcoming schedule in the SEC.

Pick: Over 10.5 (+142)

Oregon O/U 10.5 Wins

Oregon looked great during its first road game of the season against Oregon State in Week 3, shutting out the Beavers in the second half to record a 49-14 win. It was the best win of the season for Ducks head coach Dan Lanning and QB Dillon Gabriel. However, Oregon narrowly avoided a loss to Boise State in Week 2 and looked flat against Idaho in Week 1.

The remainder of Oregon’s schedule isn’t daunting but hosting No. 3 Ohio State on October 12 will likely result in a loss. The Ducks would have to go undefeated in all other eight regular season games, which includes facing a stout Illinois defense and No. 18 Michigan on the road in early November. Even Michigan State the week before facing the Buckeyes could be a trap game, as Spartans head coach Johnathan Smith is familiar with the Ducks due to previously coaching at Oregon State.

I’m confident we see Oregon stumble elsewhere in their schedule outside of Ohio State, so at +126 odds, let’s stake a unit on the Ducks to go under 10.5 regular season wins in 2024.

Pick: Under 10.5 Wins (+126)

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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