Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick
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These odds were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on October 24, 2019.
As we approach the halfway point of the 2019 NFL season, we begin to get to the games that will make or break a team’s season. I see Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis as such a game for the Denver Broncos, who after a short two-game winning streak, got routed last week at home against Kansas City to fall to 2-5 on the season. For the Colts, they are a missed field goal away in their opener from being 5-1 on the season and being in complete control of the AFC South. With potential playoff implications on the line in the AFC, let’s take a deeper look at this matchup to see where we can find an edge.
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Details
- Opening Lines: The Colts opened up at -4.5, and the over/under opened at 43.5. The numbers have moved slightly in favor of the under and the Colts.
- Current Line: Colts -5.5
- O/U: 43
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 14, 2017 – Denver defeated Indianapolis 25-13 at Lucas Oil Stadium
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Overview
Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett continues to look more than capable of leading a team that was thought to be dead in the water following the abrupt retirement of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck. Last week at home the Colts took care of business against division rival Houston, 30-24, to take sole possession of first in the AFC South. In the defeat of the Texans, Brisset played one of his most complete games of the season, a four-touchdown performance where he threw for 326 yards and zero interceptions. Colt’s wide receiver Zach Pascal scored two of Brisset’s touchdowns, and in his second season in Indy is on pace for the best season of his career. Sunday also marked the biggest output this Colts’ offense has seen all season, scoring a season-high 30 points to go along with 384 yards of total offense.
After starting off the season losing four straight, the Broncos showed flashes of success in back to back wins against the Chargers and Titans. Last week, however, against a mostly Matt Moore-led Chiefs team, the Broncos’ success looked more like an indictment on the Chargers and Titans than the quality of Denver. Once again quarterback Joe Flacco struggled to move the ball, completing just 21 of 34 pass attempts to finish with 213 yards and zero touchdowns. The running game has also struggled to get going in Denver, with running back Phillip Lindsay accounting for just 576 yards through seven games to start the year. Denver’s defense has been the backbone of this team, allowing just 302.6 yards of offense per game to rank fourth in the NFL.
Trends
- Under is 3-0-1 in Broncos last four games in October.
- Under is 4-0 in Broncos last four games after rushing for less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Broncos last eight road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
- Under is 7-2 in Colts last nine games after passing for more than 250 yards in their previous game
- Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
- Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bottom Line
While the Broncos have certainly had a less-than-ideal start to the 2019 season, their defense has been as good if not better than expected. Through seven games, they have allowed more than 24 points just three times, with two of those being to the Packers and Chiefs. While Brissett and the Colts’ offense has been humming along, they are not on par with either of those offensive units. In their first six games to start the season, they’ve scored more than 24 points just twice against significantly lesser defenses in Houston and Atlanta. While I lean the Colts to take this one at home, I expect them to do it scoring 24 points or less.
Pick: Colts Team Total UNDER 24.5
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Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.