Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds & Game Pick (2021)
One week into the NFL season, and we’re already setting records after a record twelve underdogs covered the spread in the opening week, the most in the Super Bowl era. Betting this league is unpredictable, but no one saw that coming. Week 2 brings us yet another 16-game slate, and below we’ll break down an AFC matchup that we hope to capitalize on.
Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game.
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Article Picks 1-1 (-0.10u)
Details
- Opening Line: O/U: 44 |JAC +6.5
- Current Line: O/U: 45.5 | JAC +6
Overview
Jacksonville entered this season with a palpable buzz surrounding their organization; some good, some bad.
The good was drafting quarterback Trevor Lawrence NO. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. The bad – hiring Urban Myer, who promptly brought in Tim Tebow to try out at tight end. Ah, that’s more like the Jaguars organization we’ve gotten to know over the years. You scared us a bit in 2018 but glad to have you back.
Last week, they entered as favorites against the Houston Texans, only to get pummeled 37-21. What expectations?
Lawrence was repeatedly pressured and threw three interceptions. He did throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns, but it was far too late.
The defense was shredded by Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who threw two touchdowns and rushed for 40 yards. Brandin Cooks sliced the secondary, and veteran running back Mark Ingram II ran for 85 yards and a score. Not exactly a promising debut for defensive coordinator Joe Cullen.
Denver visited the New York Giants in their opener and took care of business, rolling to a 27-13 victory.
Teddy Bridgewater threw for two touchdowns and even displayed touch on his deep ball – something missing from his repertoire for years.
The running back duo of Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams combined for 146 yards, and the receiving group was stellar. Losing Jerry Jeudy for 4-6 weeks is less than ideal, but they possess enough depth to get by.
This Denver defense is the strength of this team, and they did not disappoint. Allowing a mere 13-points and forcing a fumble to go along with two sacks. They will be trouble for this Jacksonville team that was stymied by a weak Texans team.
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The difference in this game will come down to the defense and quarterback play – a young rookie vs. cerebral veteran.
Let’s analyze their advanced statistics from Week 1 per PFF:
Overall Grade:
- Bridgewater: 85.7
- Lawrence: 57.7
Passer Rating When Clean:
- Bridgewater: 120.0
- Lawrence: 82.7
Passer Rating Under Pressure:
- Bridgewater: 105.3
- Lawrence: 28.8
Turnover-Worthy Play%
- Bridgewater: 2.44%
- Lawrence: 5.36%
The analytics show that Bridgewater was the superior quarterback in every facet. You may think there was a large discrepancy in the performance of offensive lines, but PFF had them rated #21 (DEN) and #23 (JAX), respectively.
The most interesting statistic to me is the gap between the two in a clean pocket. It’s not surprising to see a veteran outduel a rookie, but the Giants’ defense is certainly better than what the Texans put out there.
Trends:
- Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Broncos’ last 5 road games.
Bottom Line
I expect this game to play out much like the Broncos-Giants game last weekend. The Denver defense dominated and confused a young quarterback – now facing a rookie who struggled to put points up against a bad Houston team, look for the Broncos to control possession and stymie Lawrence and the Jaguars offense.
Pick: Under 45.5
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Jordan Anderson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Jordan_A03.