Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds and Game Pick (2020)
Derek Carr vs. Drew Lock could be the start of a special AFC West rivalry. With that said, it is no sure thing that either one of these quarterbacks is under center for their respective team in 2021, so this will be a battle to savor while it’s here. Denver was expected to push for a playoff spot this season, but instead, it is the Las Vegas Raiders who are playing their way into the postseason. Denver will be left wondering what might have been if they were healthy, but for Derek Carr, the time is now.
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DEN
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+3.5
-110
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o50.5
-115
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+170
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LV
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-3.5
-110
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u50.5
-105
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-200
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Overview
Denver is 3-5 on the season and may already be looking ahead to how to improve their roster for the 2021 campaign. The Broncos took major hits to their chances of competing this year when they lost their star player on both sides of the ball in All-Pro Von Miller and ascending Pro Bowl level talent Courtland Sutton. They still have talent at receiver and in their front seven, but removing those two players from their 2020 equation has made them a team on the outside looking in, instead of one battling for the final spot in the expanded playoffs. The Broncos have shown some flashes, especially on offense and in the front seven, but are still ways away from being a complete team. They will look to plug their holes this offseason.
The Las Vegas Raiders have the marquee wins of the season but still, somehow, find themselves at 5-3. They have beat both the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints, the favorite from each conference to reach the Super Bowl. Their defense is still young and they have dealt with injuries at receiver for most of the year, but have still been surprisingly competitive. They do however have a negative scoring differential and have what is now looked back on as an embarrassing loss to the New England Patriots on their record. The AFC West has one of the tougher schedules in the league but the Raiders appear to have the coaching and skill to navigate the waters to a surprise playoff berth. The Raiders may be a year or two early, which only makes the Mike Mayock-Jon Gruden project all the more exciting.
Trends
- Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with winning home records
- Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests overall
- Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last five contests overall
- Under is 5-1 in the Raiders last six contests against teams with losing records
Prop Bets
Jerry Jeudy over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jerry Jeudy has been quietly enjoying a strong rookie season. On pace to break Eddie Royal’s team rookie receiving yard record, Jeudy has been flying a bit under the radar. He opened at 51.5 receiving yards on Friday but was slammed by the sharps so much that the line was moved a full two yards to 53.5 by Friday night. The over is still the play here, but the early action goes to show how much confidence sharps have in Jeudy this weekend. Drew Lock has picked up his play as of late and has no problems peppering his top wideout with targets (he has seen 24 targets in his last two contests).
Jeudy has averaged 5.5 receptions for 99 receiving yards over his last two contests and is poised to continue his ascension in the second half of the season. Jeudy has impressively cleared 54 receiving yards in six of his eight contests this season, making his early line movement totally understandable.
According to TRNDS Sports App, Jeudy has averaged 72 receiving yards per game when the Broncos have been listed as less than seven point underdogs. Even more enticing, he has cleared the total in all six of those contests. Jeudy is one of the top player prop plays of Week 10, so be sure to get your action in before the juice soars, or we see the number moved again. Jeudy is worth a multiple unit play.
Bottom Line
The Raiders should be able to win the contest rather handily, the only concern here being whether or not the Raiders are able to win by four points. -2.5 would be an obvious better line as the win probability decreases quite significantly at -3.5 instead. If we move the line to -3 at BetMGM, the juice is not prohibitive. BetMGM offers -3 at -133. The Raiders have avoided any catastrophic season-ending injuries, and as such, have proven to be the better team this season.
The Broncos pass rush could present a problem for the offensive line, but the Raiders gameplan will be centered around Josh Jacobs and the running game, not Derek Carr. If the Raiders win this game, and we do expect them to, they should win by at least three points. This means the push risk is alive, but it is much better than getting the -3.5 number and seeing a garbage time score bring the game to within three. Divisional battles are often more heated than team records may suggest, and the expectation is that the trend will continue here. Take Las Vegas at BetMGM, but be sure to push the line to -3.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.