Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Odds & Game Pick (2020)
The Denver Broncos and New York Jets’ Week 4 meeting on Thursday night is a battle between two teams each in search of their first win. This is the second straight year both the Broncos and Jets started 0-3, with neither getting their first wins until their fifth games of the season last year. Which team will end their losing streak, and who will go on to be the NFL’s first 0-4 team?
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Details
- Opening Lines: Broncos -2.5; O/U 40 (via FanDuel)
- Current Line: Broncos +1
- O/U: 39.5
- Location: Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- Start Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Television: NFL Network
- Last Meeting: October 7, 2018 –Jets 34, Broncos 16
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Overview
The Denver Broncos can attribute their poor 0-3 start to injuries and a lack of offensive firepower. After losing eight-time Pro Bowler and former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller before the season started, the Broncos shortly thereafter received news that wide receiver Courtland Sutton would miss the 2020 season with a knee injury. Then, starting quarterback Drew Lock got injured early in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the team turned to backup Jeff Driskel. However, Denver has already announced that they will make former practice squad quarterback Brett Rypien their starter in Week 4. Thus, the Broncos will use their third starting quarterback in the first four weeks of the season. Denver was competitive for the first two weeks of the season, losing games to the Titans and Steelers by a combined seven points. However, last week’s 28-10 loss to the Buccaneers exposed a lot of their flaws and prompted yet another quarterback change.
There are rumblings in the New York media that the Jets would fire head coach Adam Gase if the team fell to 0-4. While the Broncos have been competitive for two of their three games thus far, the Jets have been blown out every week. New York has lost its three games by an average of 19 PPG. They too have had injury concerns of their own, as their top two receivers Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder have missed a combined three games thus far. While Perriman has been ruled out for Thursday’s contest, Crowder looks like he will be able to suit up on Thursday while attempting to breathe life in the NFL’s 31st-ranked passing attack. In addition, leading rusher Le’Veon Bell has been on injured reserve since Week 1 and is not eligible to come back until Week 5 at the earliest.
Trends
- Denver is 10-3 SU in their last 13 Thursday night games.
- The under is 7-1 in Denver’s last eight night games.
- The Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four night games.
Prop Bet (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times (TD, FG, or Safety): NO (+175)
With the “yes†for this prop listed at odds of -250, the “no†at +175 is too good of a value to pass up. The projected total for this game is 39.5 points and is easily the lowest total of any Week 4 game. In a game that is projected to be low scoring, that lessens the chances that one team would go on a run for three straight scores. The Broncos and Jets are each coming off blowout losses, but surprisingly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers never managed three straight scores against the Broncos even though they won 28-10. In addition, neither of these teams poses enough of a threat to the other to see one team look like they are running away with the game.
Bottom Line
The Broncos and Jets rank 29th and 32nd respectively in terms of total offense and 30th and 32nd in points per game. Thus, the natural inclination is to side with the under, especially given the fact that the game is played on a short week. However, the value on the under has been removed with how low of a line oddsmakers have set. In addition, just because each of these offenses has a hard time scoring does not mean their offense cannot gift the opposing defense with great field position or direct scores of their own. Just ask the New York Jets, whose offense was directly responsible for 16 Colts points (two pick-sixes and a safety) last week. Thus, look for the contrarian play of the over to be the right side.
In terms of the spread, Denver’s odds nearly evaporated once the news of Brett Rypien being named starting quarterback broke. While oddsmakers were right to move the line in the Jets’ favor as they anticipated more money being wagered on New York as a result of the news, I am not sure the Broncos are any worse off with Rypien for this game.
Rypien threw nine passes in relief of Jeff Driskel last week, going 8-for-9 for 53 yards with one interception on a forced throw. Thus, there is not a lot of game film by which to scout Rypien and as we saw in Justin Herbert’s first start for the Chargers, for example, quarterbacks who have not been scouted tend to have an advantage early on. The Broncos have allowed 13 sacks through three games which is tied for the second-most allowed in the league. However, the Jets pass rush is not strong enough to take advantage of Denver’s poor offensive line play. Plus, there should also be quicker throws in the game plan to make Rypien more comfortable in the pocket.
In addition, there is something to be said for the chip on his shoulder that Rypien will have as he aims to prove he deserves a spot on the active roster. Motivation is something the Jets players have looked like they have lacked of late, as there were often visible signs of giving up in the second half last week. Though Rypien’s news lowered Denver’s odds considerably, I will still back the hungrier Broncos side versus a Jets team that may not mind losing a game if the speculation is true that their head coach will be fired with a loss.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.