Dolphins vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Dolphins vs. Chiefs.
NFL Betting Primer: Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins
We kick things off across the pond over in Frankfurt Germany at Deutsche Bank Park, in a HUGE matchup between two AFC powerhouses.
KC is looking to bounce back after a loss versus the Broncos, where Patrick Mahomes was battling the flu. KC has usually played well after losses, winning their last 9 games following a loss.
Miami has struggled to beat "tougher" teams going 5-0 as a favorite, but 1-2 as an underdog this season. They have scored fewer points - 36, 24, 20, 17 - in four consecutive road games.
KC will present similar issues for Miami's high-flying offense with their top-tier defense, ranking 5th overall in DVOA and 4th in pass defense DVOA. 23rd in rush defense DVOA. I think we will see a heavy run game plan by the Dolphins to expose the Chiefs' weaker run defense. Miami is dealing with a lot of OL injuries, so pass protection could be a potential issue. Therefore I like the over on Raheem Mostert’s 11.5 carries prop. Even with Jeff Wilson Jr. back in action last week, Mostert carried the ball 13 times. The over HIT last week on Williams’ carry total versus the Chiefs, so we will roll that over into Week 9.
Overall it's not too often you can bet on Patrick Mahomes laying just 1-2.5 points coming off a huge loss. Think you know where I am leaning here.
As for the game total, Miami is 5-3 toward the over this season. The unders came against the league's worst scoring offenses in the Patriots/Giants and recently on Sunday Night Football versus the Eagles (48 points came under the 52-point closing line). The current line is bloated at 51 points when the overseas game thus far has dramatically flown under the total this season, for a perfect 3-0 toward the under.
And the Chiefs offense has not been the same juggernaut unit in past years. 2-6 toward the under this season. Currently on a four-game streak of unders. That's not to say KC can't score. But it's the expectation that they are ALWAYS scoring that has underwhelmed in the markets this season.
In terms of travel, we have seen teams struggle out of the gates that leave LATER in the week, allowing less time for the body to acclimate. Miami left on Monday, but KC is scheduled to leave Thursday for Germany.
The optics of this matchup on the surface between Miami and KC as "two high-powered offenses" are heavily weighted in the total. But based on Miami's lackluster performances versus tougher defenses and good opponents overall - along with just the weird/unusual settings of a neutral game site in Europe - I do lean toward the under even though a 24-27 game could easily be the exact outcome. Both teams might look to establish the run which might not generate as many points especially early on as we'd all love to see.
Might even look closer toward the first half under, should KC come out sluggish after traveling over to Germany later in the week.
Although my strengths this season have been on the totals, I feel better about backing KC -1 in this spot.
My Picks:
- Chiefs -1
- Under 51
- First Half Under 24.5
My Props:
- Raheem Mostert over 11.5 carries (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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